Atlanta Braves Predictions from the Tomahawk Take Staff

Atlanta Braves Predictions: Braves MVP

The Atlanta Braves feature a stacked lineup with several MVP candidates. Who are we picking for the Braves MVP award in 2021?

Andrew Cicco: Freddie Freeman

Alan Carpenter: Freddie Freeman

Edgar Galvan: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Josh Matthews: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Sam Peebles: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Jake Mastroianni: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Steven Teal: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Seth Carter: Freddie Freeman

Matt Melton: Ronald Acuña Jr.

James Kunkle: Ozzie Albies

Kyle Walter: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Trent Dickeson: Ronald Acuña Jr.

https://twitter.com/si_mlb/status/1374438173825069062?s=20

The votes are in and Ronald Acuña Jr. is projected as our Braves MVP going into 2021 with 8 of the votes. 2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman tallies 3 votes, while Ozzie Albies picks up a vote as well.

The general consensus among the guys picking Acuña is that he will have a 40/40 season and will not only win Braves MVP, but also win the National League MVP award as well.

Matt Melton says, “I believe Acuña wins the first NL MVP of many in his career.”

For Freeman, the three guys in his corner all go with the consistency of the 2020 MVP. It is hard to argue against Freeman, as he has been a constant in Atlanta for over a decade now.

Seth Carter provided great insight as to why he selected Freddie Freeman, “Since the beginning of 2019, Freeman has the fourth-most doubles, 11th most homers, third-most runs scored, second-most RBI, 15th-best average, eighth-most walks, and only Whit Merrifield has more line drives (although Freeman has a higher line-drive percentage). He is only 31-years-old. His floor is in the MVP conversation and his ceiling is taking his MVP-game to a new level.”

It would surprise no one to see Freeman put together another MVP season in 2021.

I will point out that I considered selecting Ozzie Albies but elected to go with the safer option in Acuña. James Kunkle (the sole Ozzie vote) thinks Ozzie can be the catalyst that really takes the offense to the next level.

One thing is certain, the Braves have a great lineup with plenty of MVP candidates. Now, it is time to move over to the pitchers.

Atlanta Braves Predictions: CY Young

The Braves pitching staff in 2020 was held together by Max Fried, Ian Anderson, and prayer. Thankfully, it looks like the staff will be much improved in 2021 barring injury.

Here are our predictions for the Braves “CY Young.”

Andrew: Ian Anderson

Alan: Max Fried

Edgar: Charlie Morton

Josh: Mike Soroka

Sam: Max Fried

Jake: Charlie Morton

Steven: Charlie Morton

Seth: Max Fried

Matt: Ian Anderson

James: Max Fried

Kyle: Max Fried

Trent: Ian Anderson

A tight race for the Braves CY Young award prediction. Max Fried wins with five votes, Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson pick up three votes each, and Mike Soroka picks up a single vote.

Max Fried gets the win from the staff here off the back of a strong 2020 season where he was the Ace of the Braves rotation. After a Cy Young-type performance in 2020, the staff predicts he takes the next step forward in 2021.

Charlie Morton gets some love for his veteran presence.

Here is what Edgar had to say about why he picked Morton, “We all know how good Charlie Morton can be and I believe that he will be the ace in this rotation. Not to say Fried or Anderson will be bad, but rather Morton will be leading the pack. A good arm to have for the playoffs!”

Morton does have the 13th highest WAR among starting pitchers over the last four seasons. If he continues at that pace, he could easily be the Braves Ace in 2021.

I personally was split between Max Fried and Ian Anderson but went with Anderson because I think he has the highest ceiling of any Braves pitcher. For those that know me, they know I am a huge Max Fried fan, so it was hard to pick against him. I think he has another great season, but Anderson might be able to take this rotation to another level.

Finally, Mike Soroka would have gotten more votes if we knew more about his status. Most of the staff said they would probably lean Soroka if he was fully healthy coming into the season.

With this many great pitching options, I think the Braves are in for a great season from their starting rotation. It can only improve from last year.

Now, it is time for some bold predictions.

Bold Atlanta Braves Predictions

This is where it will get fun. The bold predictions from the staff!

Andrew: Christian Pache will win both ROY and MVP. Mark it.

Alan: Austin Riley hits 30 HR and bats .260-265

Edgar: Braves will trade for Jose Ramirez at the trade deadline. Pretty bold, but I believe that Riley may be a little too inconsistent this season and AA may be willing to part with talent to gain Ramirez to strengthen this lineup.

Josh: We win the World Series.

Sam: Riley will not be the starting 3rd baseman by season’s end. Most likely a trade at the deadline, or Adrianza takes over.

Jake: Dansby Swanson makes the All-Star team.

Steven: Max Fried wins 20+ starts

Seth: Cristian Pache wins a Gold Glove in CF. Austin Riley becomes an All-Star. – I will touch on Pache in the next section. Riley took huge strides last season and while he did not put it all together, he showed that he could clobber major-league-breaking balls. He is still a very young player with only 131 career games under his belt. This is the season the former first-round draft pick starts putting the pieces together.

Matt: Austin Riley hits 30 HRs – This should be the year Riley runs away with the 3B job. Riley has a massive season giving Atlanta yet another 30+ HR bat in the lineup.

James: Ronald Acuna gets a couple of stolen bases during the last week to become a member of the 40/40 club.

Kyle: Sean Newcomb becomes a middle relief ace.

Trent: I will give two. Ozzie Albies gives us a 30/20 season. I think Ronald Acuña not only gives us a 40/40 season, I think he surpasses that and gives us a 50/40 season. The only thing that concerns me about that prediction is he may hit too many home runs to steal 40 bases.

A few of our bold predictions centered around the Braves young 3rd baseman. Sam and Edgar believe that Riley may lose the job during the season.

Alan, Matt, and Seth all believe in Riley and think this is the year he figures it out. If he figures it out and becomes a legit 30 HR threat, the Braves lineup becomes extremely deep.

Andrew’s prediction is extremely bold but would be extremely fun. I am all for a Pache MVP season in 2021.

Jake believes Dansby’s 2020 was real and turns it into an All-Star appearance and Steven believes Fried becomes a 20- game winner.

Out of all the bold predictions, I love Josh’s prediction the most. I hope he is right, and the Braves win a World Series in 2021.

Now we look at our predictions for 2021 X-factors

Braves X-Factor

We move from bold predictions to the X-factors for the Atlanta Braves. Who (or what) will be the X-factor in 2021?

Andrew: Johan Camargo. Enough said. (But no, if pitching stays consistent and we can avoid serious injury, then we will go far).

Alan: Top four in the lineup stay healthy all year.

Edgar: The X-factor is this lineup. I am actually becoming somewhat confident in the back end of the lineup and believe overall, that this is one of the most dangerous lineups in the league.

Josh: When everybody hits, everybody wins. But when you do not hit, you remind your fans of just one World Series title across 14 straight division championships.

Sam: Sean Newcomb. If he can finally get it together, he has the potential to make the bullpen or rotation much better.

Jake: Starting pitching depth. Soroka, Fried, Morton, Anderson, Smyly, Wilson, Wright, Ynoa, Touki, Davidson.

Steven: Pitching depth and consistent offense.

Seth: Cristian Pache. I believe the league could recognize Pache as the best defensive centerfielder in the game by the end of the season. His spectacular defense is going to save a lot of runs for the Braves pitching staff.

Matt: Cristian Pache – If Pache can hit right away, it will give the Braves a “do-it-all” CF who is elite defensively.

James: The bullpen. I think it is fair to say that the bullpen is the one part of the team that has regressed over the winter. Will Smith will need to bounce back some and Tyler Matzek and Chris Martin will both have to keep building upon what they have become since both becoming members of the Atlanta Braves roster. Could be a spot where the Braves look for a big acquisition come July.

Kyle: Ozzie Albies reclaiming his 2019 form.

Trent: I think Pache is this year’s X-factor. If he is elite defensively, he will be one of the more valuable players on the team at a premium defensive position. If he finds a way to be league average at the plate, he could legitimately be a 3+ WAR player this year. It would also make the already dangerous Braves lineup even more dangerous.

Most of the X-factor predictions revolve around the Braves lineup and it being elite again in 2021. They return essentially the same lineup from 2020 that was one of the best in all of baseball.

When healthy, we know the Braves lineup can do damage. If Austin Riley or Cristian Pache figure it out at the plate, the lineup is arguably one of the best, if not the best, in the majors.

Other predictions revolve around the pitching staff. It makes sense because the starting pitching in 2020 outside of Fried and Anderson was an adventure.

The main player being listed as the X-factor is Pache. The top prospect has proven this spring that he is elite defensively. If he figures it out at the plate, the Braves have a star in the making.

Also, that makes two Sean Newcomb sightings in this prediction article. Both Sam and Kyle mention that they think Newcomb could provide a great value to the Braves bullpen.

Finally, let us take a look at record projections.

Record & Division Projections

Spoiler alert! We all think the Braves do really well. How well though? Here are the predictions.

Andrew: I think we run with it again with a modest 97-65.

Alan: 95-67, 1st place in the East

Edgar: I believe the Braves end with a 95-67 record and win the division. Mets end 89-73; Phillies end 86-76; Nationals end 81-81; Marlins end 78-84.

Josh: 96 wins, 1st place.

Sam: Atlanta wins 92 games, good for 1st in the division. These teams are going to eat each other alive. I would not be surprised to see 3 teams in the NL east at .500 or below. Not because they are bad, but because of their strength of schedule.

Jake: Braves finish first in NL East – 96-66.

Steven: Braves finish first for a 4th consecutive season. 94-68.

Seth: As much credit as the Dodgers’ offense gets (rightfully so) they only scored one more run than the Braves last season. The Dodgers and Braves offenses were clearly in a tier of their own in 2020. With Ozuna returning and young players continuing to progress, and the MVP anchor at the heart of it, the Braves should finish in first place in the NL East once again. It is a tough division but if the pitching staff stays healthy, I think this is a 97-win team.

Matt: 95-67 (1st in NL East) – I believe Atlanta wins the division by at least 5 games.

James: The Atlanta Braves get at least 90+ wins but have to play in the wild card game where they will win.

Kyle: 1st place. 98-64.

Trent: I think if the Mets can stay healthy, they are a World Series team. However, so are the Atlanta Braves. It could very well come down to that final weekend series against the Mets where I am sure Jacob DeGrom will be waiting with another Cy Young caliber year. I think the Braves hold on and win the division though with a 94-68 record.

We might be a little biased, as 11 of the 12 predictions have the Braves winning the division. The lone outlier is James who has them winning the Wild Card game.

The Braves certainly have the talent to win the division and make a deep playoff run.

Personally, I think the division ends something like:

1. Braves
2. Mets
3. Phillies
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

What about the rest of Braves country? What are some of your predictions for the upcoming 2021 season?

Do you agree or disagree with our predictions?

Either way, I am happy to see baseball back. I think we can all agree on that.