After a few up and down seasons, Dansby Swanson put together a great 2020 season. Will he take the next step forward and be a solid contributor for the Atlanta Braves and our fantasy baseball teams?
Dansby Swanson put together a great season in 2020 for the Atlanta Braves, albeit in a shortened, 60-game season. Was this a step in the right direction for the young shortstop?
Fantasy Pro’s ADP: 104.8
2020 stats: .274/.345/.464 10 HRs, 49 Rs, 35 RBIs, 5 SBs, and a 116 wrc+
162-game pace: 27 HRs, 132.3 Rs, 94.5 RBIs, & 13.5 SBs.
2021 ZiPS projection: .251/.323/.424 19 HRs, 81 Rs, 81 RBIs, 11 SBs, and a 90 wrc+
2021 Steamer projection: .249/.323/.424 20 HRs, 81 Rs, 72 RBIs, 11 SBs, and a 91 wrc+.
DANSBY SWANSON TANK JOB THE BRAVES ARE RUNNING AWAY WITH IT https://t.co/VX6E2CAYUn
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) October 6, 2020
Swanson’s 2020 season was special for Braves fans. He finally put it together for a
full
season and would have been on pace for 4+ fWAR season.
However, we should point out that this was only a 60-game season, or two months, worth of production. While we want to believe Swanson will succeed, we need to realize that he still has not put it together over the course of a 162-game schedule.
He has a career 85 wrc+.
Swanson has struggled with consistency and injuries throughout his career. He played in every game in 2020, so maybe last season is a sign of things to come if Swanson can remain healthy over the course of a full season.
Here are some of his metrics from his 2020 season from his baseball savant page:
- Barrel%- 11.4% (77th percentile)
- xSLG- .472 (73rd percentile)
- xBA- .266 (72nd percentile)
- xwOBA- .352 (70th percentile)
- Hard Hit%- 40.7% (58th percentile)
- Exit Velocity- 89.1 (55th percentile)
- BB%- 8.3% (40th percentile)
- K%- 26.9% (27th percentile)
- Whiff%- 31.6% (20th percentile)
Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies arguing over defensive real estate will never get old. 😅 pic.twitter.com/ilCajTi0eW
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) September 20, 2020
That is a mixed bag of results for Swanson. When he made contact, he was squaring the ball up and driving it well.
He probably will not be hitting 30-35 HRs, but more in the 20-25 range at his peak with more doubles power. That will be fine, especially in a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup.
Swanson could arguably hit in several different spots in the Braves batting order, and could find himself hitting behind Ronald Acuña, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, and Travis d’Arnaud at different points in the season. There will be plenty of RBI opportunities for Swanson.
One could worry about his run total if he finds himself hitting lower in the order, but if he finds himself in the 2 hole, Swanson should expect to cross home plate several times this upcoming season.
One issue with Swanson will be his plate discipline. He still swings and misses more than one would like.
However, he has improved in this area, dropping his chase% down from 31.1% in 2018 to 23.9% in 2020. If Swanson continues to improve his plate discipline, he very well could replicate, and possibly improve, upon his stellar season.
The biggest key will be putting it together over a full year and by staying healthy. This is what has held Swanson back for the majority of his career.
DANSBY SWANSON TWO RUN OPPO BOMB OFF GERRIT COLE pic.twitter.com/7nwfLGkd7D
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) August 26, 2020
Swanson is a tough player to project going into 2021, especially for fantasy baseball purposes. Currently going around the 9th round, it is tough to say if he will provide enough value to justify that draft price.
He is being drafted as the 15th SS in fantasy baseball, so that may help alleviate the price by drafting him to play as the middle infielder for one’s fantasy baseball team. It could give fantasy baseball owners a reason to pass on Swanson.
Overall, I think that if Swanson can put together a season close to .270/.340/.460 with 20 HRs, 200 runs plus RBIs, and 10+ steals, then he would be a great selection at that draft price.
That would also be huge for Braves fans as that would probably give Dansby a 4+ fWAR season in the heart of the lineup. That type of season would probably warrant a contract extension next offseason.
Dansby Swanson is an interesting player for fantasy baseball in 2021. He probably is not the player to win a league for fantasy players, but he could be a stellar contributor for the 2021 season.