Atlanta Braves tough decisions: Johan Camargo does he stay or play AAA?
By Fred Owens
After his successful 2017 season with the Atlanta Braves, Camargo adjusted his swing, most likely in an attempt to increase his average launch angle. From one point of view it worked, but overall, the change was a wash.
What changed?
According to StatCast, Camargo average exit velocity remained relatively steady at 88 mph in 2017 and 88.1 mph in 2018, but he increased his average launch angle from 9.5° to 12 .6°. The result was an increase in his fly ball rate of 4.5% at the expense of his line drive rate (-2%) and his ground ball rate (-2.8%). Those increases led more home runs than projected, but fewer doubles.
Camargo smacked 21 doubles and four homers in 2017. At that pace, a simple projection would give Camargo eight homers and 40 doubles in 2018 for a total of 48 XBH. His final line included 27 doubles and 19 homers, a total of 46 XBH. He effectively converted some doubles into homers and nudged the warning track outs over the fence. but his success didn’t carry over into 2019.
Don’t blame or credit the pitchers
Pitchers haven’t significantly changed the way they pitched the Atlanta Braves’ utility man since his rookie year. Aside from the slight drop in FB and increase in breaking balls that most rookies see in their sophomore year, the pitch-mix he faced is effectively the same, but he’s not doing much with them.
| No. | % | BA | EV | LA | WHIFF % | Put Away % | ||
| 2019 | Fastballs | 473 | 53 | .260 | 87.7 | 13 | 17.2 | 14.3 |
| 2018 | Fastballs | 1141 | 54.9 | .300 | 88.9 | 15 | 19.4 | 14 |
| 2017 | Fastballs | 570 | 60.2 | .301 | 89.4 | 11 | 16.2 | 15.3 |
| 2019 | Breaking | 238 | 26.7 | .200 | 85.5 | 16 | 30.7 | 18 |
| 2018 | Breaking | 534 | 25.7 | .208 | 86.9 | 7 | 28.8 | 23 |
| 2017 | Breaking | 194 | 20.5 | .309 | 86.4 | 12 | 25 | 22.1 |
| 2019 | Offspeed | 182 | 20.4 | .200 | 86.4 | -1 | 38.7 | 17.5 |
| 2018 | Offspeed | 403 | 19.4 | .286 | 87.2 | 13 | 42.3 | 19.1 |
| 2017 | Offspeed | 183 | 19.3 | .288 | 86.3 | 4 | 41 | 25 |
Camargo’s timing is awful. StatCast shows an increase in mishit pitches since 2018 and a resulting decrease in exit velocity and launch angle.
| Yr | WK% | TOP% | UNDR% | FL/BRN% | EV | LA |
| 2017 | 4.7 | 33.2 | 20.7 | 29.5 | 88.1 | 9.5 |
| 2018 | 1.9 | 34.0 | 25.1 | 26.5 | 88.1 | 12.6 |
| 2019 | 3.2 | 36.3 | 27.9 | 23.7 | 86.9 | 11.1 |
| 2020 | 2.4 | 42.4 | 27.1 | 17.6 | 87.3 | 11.2 |
His peripherals point out that Camargo’s swing isn’t working; worm-killers (burners) that shot through the infield in 2017 and 18 became softly hit ground ball outs. His bloop hits from hump-back line drives (flares), that once fell in front of outfielders turned into popups and outs.
Camargo can still turn on a mistake fastball and drive it, but he’s seeing fewer mistakes.
The most frustrating part for Atlanta Braves’ fans is seeing Camargo come through in critical situations then vanish for the routine plate appearances.