Max Fried carried the Braves pitching staff in 2020. Can he carry that momentum into 2021 and carry your fantasy baseball team?
Today, we take a look at the first Atlanta Braves pitcher being taken in fantasy baseball drafts, Max Fried. Fried pitched like an Ace in 2020, can he run it back for 2021?
2020 stats: 11 starts, 7-0, 2.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, & 0.32 HR/9.
2021 ZiPS projection: 26 starts, 12-8, 4.03 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 9.06 K/9, 3.29 BB/9, & 0.99 HR/9.
2021 Steamer projection: 29 starts, 12-8, 3.76 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 8.94 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, & 0.96 HR/9.
Sit back and enjoy the greatness that is Max Fried. pic.twitter.com/u4tAjNfbh8
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) October 13, 2020
The projection models seem to be lower on Fried than Braves fans, and fantasy baseball players, would like. That is because it uses data from previous seasons to calculate a projection.
Fried’s breakout 2020 came during a shortened season. In 2019, he pitched to a 4.02 ERA, so it is understandable why a computer-generated projection is slightly lower on Fried.
There are also some experts that believe Max Fried will regress back to the mean in 2021 and will not carry the momentum from 2020 into this season. Fried is a tough pitcher to project for fantasy purposes going forward.
This is highlighted by his ADP. While fantasy pros have Fried averaging out as a mid-7th round pick (77th overall), that is not the case for every site.
Fried’s ADP (12 team league assumed)
- ESPN- late 7th (82nd overall)
- CBS- late 7th (82nd overall)
- Yahoo- early 8th (85th overall)
- RTS- mid 6th (68th overall)
- NFBC- mid 6th (68th overall)
- Fantrax- late 5th (56th overall)
There are 2-3 rounds of variance in Fried’s ADP across the different sites because experts are not sure what to think of 2020 stats.
While I personally think Fried is due for some regression due to the 4.05 xFIP, I do not believe it will be as severe as others. I am not sure that Fried can get close to a low 2 ERA again this year, however, I would not be surprised to see him pitch to a sub 3 ERA though.
https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1369725197172043779?s=20
While there is some variance in draft slots, notice the ADP on the NFBC and Fantrax sites. The “industry experts” use these sites for their industry leagues and Fried is being drafted a round or two earlier in these leagues.
Why is this the case? Well, because it looks like Fried’s 2020 was not a total fluke according to his advanced metrics.
Look at his 2020 advanced metrics on his baseball savant page.
- Barrel %- 3.3% (top 8%)
- Exit Velocity- (top 2%)
- Sweet Spot %- 28.5%
- xBA- .199
- xSLG- .284 (top 6%)
- xOBA- .276
- xwOBA- .259 (top 9%)
- xwOBAcon- .277 (top 9%)
- Hard Hit %- 23.8% (top 2%)
- xERA- 2.81 (top 9%)
Thinking about Max Fried today pic.twitter.com/jhLWHr3uwU
— Trent (@Trenciarte) February 9, 2021
Fried’s statcast page backs up the breakout 2020 campaign. The expected ERA (xERA) of 2.81 makes one feel a little more comfortable about his 2020 even though he had a high xFIP.
This also provides some comfort that Fried could be just as good for fantasy baseball in 2021. Braves fans know how good Fried’s stuff is on the mound, and it is shown by the amount of weak contact he induces.
Fried also showed promise in his first outing of Spring Training.
#Braves Max Fried today vs. BOS:
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) March 10, 2021
4 IP, 3H, 1R, 0BB, 3K
Retired the final eight hitters in a row.
That's a fine Spring Training debut.
Hopefully, he can continue to build on the strong spring debut and carry that over into a big 2021 season for the Atlanta Braves and fantasy baseball players.
Maybe with a stronger rotation that features a returning Mike Soroka, a promising rookie in Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton, and Drew Smyly will create some healthy competition among the staff that pushes Fried (and others) to be even better in 2021.
If you are looking to play fantasy baseball in 2021 and want to draft a Braves player on your team, Fried is a great option. For fantasy baseball purposes, he is probably an SP2 in 10-15 team leagues, however, if players find themselves in larger leagues (like the 30-team league I am in) Fried could be a solid fantasy Ace for the staff.
When drafting Fried, be aware of the variance in ADP. If one is on ESPN, he may fall an extra round or two which will only increase his value for fantasy baseball in 2021.
Wherever Max Fried gets drafted, he is looking like a strong candidate to carry a pitching staff for the Atlanta Braves and our fantasy baseball teams.