Marcell Ozuna provided a big bat for fantasy baseball and the Atlanta Braves in 2020. Can he provide similar production in the 2021 season?
Another day, another fantasy baseball article about our favorite Atlanta Braves players. Today, we look at “The Big Bear,” Marcell Ozuna.
2020 stats: .338/.431/.636 18 HRs, 38 Rs, 56 RBIs, and 179 wrc+.
162-game pace: 48.6 HRs, 102.6 Rs, and 151.2 RBIs
2021 ZiPS projection: .287/.356/.534 34 HRs, 82 Rs, 126 RBIs, 5 SBs, and 127 wrc+
Ozuna is arguably one of the tougher guys to project going into the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Currently going as a late 4th rounder in 12-team leagues, Ozuna could end up being a solid value.
There is also the possibility that Ozuna only provides value better fit for the 6th round if he regresses to his time with the Cardinals.
However, he is coming off a pretty impressive year in 2020 and hopefully he can keep that momentum going into 2021.
Your reigning NL home run 👑 pic.twitter.com/2yh10G5nhN
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) March 5, 2021
It is important to note, that while Ozuna was on pace for 48+ HRs, his career-high was 37 HRs in 2017. This is why most projection models have Ozuna in the mid-30s for HR projections rather than in the 40s.
While Ozuna does have the power to hit 40+ HRs, he may not win the home run crown in 2021. He could, however, still be a stud fantasy asset at his current HR projection.
His runs and RBI totals could be phenomenal for fantasy baseball owner’s categories and roto leagues in 2021 — especially with the Braves loaded lineup.
Ozuna could find himself hitting behind Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Freddie Freeman which would provide “The Big Bear” with plenty of RBI opportunities.
He should also have Travis d’Arnaud and Dansby Swanson hitting behind him which could lead to high run totals. As mentioned earlier, we know that Ozuna can just bring himself home (and others) with one swing of the bat.
Hitters with the highest % of FBLD that had an EV > 110mph (min 25 events)
— JJ Johnson (@JJ_Stats) March 10, 2021
Miguel Sano 24.0%
Pete Alonso 16.4%
Ronald Acuna Jr 14.3%
Teoscar Hernandez 12.2%
Luis Robert 11.9%
Franmil Reyes 11.1%
Juan Soto 10.7%
Marcell Ozuna 9.9%
Robinson Cano 9.5%
Rowdy Tellez 9.3% pic.twitter.com/JZamjoppnk
Ozuna could easily hit .280 with 30+ HRs, 200+ runs and RBI, and an OPS near .900. If he does that, he is definitely worth the late 4th round to early 5th round price tag in fantasy baseball drafts.
If Ozuna can match last year’s production over the course of a full season, he would arguably become a steal at that price. Look at the metrics on his 2020 season from his baseball savant page.
- Top 6% in the league in Barrel %- 15.4%
- Top 4% in the league in Exit Velocity- 93.0
- Top 3% in the league in Hard Hit%- 54.4%
- Top 2% in the league in xBA- .312
- Top 2% in the league in xSLG- .633
- Top 1% in the league in wOBA- .444
- Top 1% in the league in xwOBA- .435
- Top 1% in the league in xwOBAcon- .534
That is quite impressive. If Ozuna provides this type of production again in 2021, watch out because it could mean big things for the Atlanta Braves and for fantasy baseball owners.
It could lead to some more iconic moments like this one.
The Postseason goes by really fast. You should try to take mental pictures of the high points. pic.twitter.com/g98KwqQIxF
— Cut4 (@Cut4) October 1, 2020
There is a possibility that Ozuna provides plenty of high points in 2021 that may be deserving of some mental pictures. One could be a fantasy baseball championship thanks to drafting Ozuna around pick 50.
There is the risk that last year was a career year for Ozuna in a contract year. He could revert back to his years with the Cardinals.
Those years are also why projections may be lower on him than some would imagine. They could also be the reason why fantasy owners get great value on Ozuna in the 4th or 5th round of their fantasy baseball drafts.