Atlanta Braves prospects Q and A with Kiley McDaniel
Atlanta Braves prospects are lighting up spring training and giving fans hope for another division title and a World Series visit. This is a good time for my promised follow-up on my Q&A session with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
Three weeks ago, I wrote about the prospect Q&A with Kiley McDaniel. At that time, I had to work from notes. What follows are the details from the transcript. I edited out some of the repetitive comments and unnecessary words (so, like, half-sentences he reworded, etc.) to make it easier to read.
I’ll interject now and then, separated by (ED) so it’s easy to see who’s speaking. I began by asking about the Atlanta Braves’ twin centerfield prospects.
Q: . . .we have Cristian Pache coming up, and he’s going to be our center fielder this year . . . On the other hand, everybody is happy about Drew Waters. I get (hear) mixed feelings about him. Some people really love him; some people say he’s just going to air-condition ballparks. Where do you see Drew Waters in this process? Is he going to be as good or as good as Pache . . . ?
Kiley McDaniel: I have reservations about both of them. Pache, I think his floor is basically like a decent everyday guy like Kevin Pillar. . . speed and defense and can hit a home run off of a mistake . . . That’s kind of what he is right now. He could also be a five, six-win perennial All-Star if he kind of puts it together. (There’s) a big gap there, but . . . he is going to be an everyday guy. So I think you’re right to sort of feel some optimism there, that he’ll be some version of better than Inciarte essentially. Waters it comes down to . . . his pitch selection . . .when you talk about is he going to be good, is he going to have a good hit tool. And then the hit tool for him. . .speed and plate coverage and raw power. All those elements are there, which is why he was a 19-year-old center fielder in Triple-A that was hitting the ball harder than almost anyone else in the league in terms of the frequency of hitting it hard. . . . that’s pretty much everything you can ask for (because) high schoolers are still that age and he’s in Triple-A hitting Big League pitching. This issue . . . and this has come up with Lewis Brinson . . . as an example of where it didn’t work out. Acuña had this issue about a month and then figured it out. I was concerned (about) Luis Robert . . . and it took him a month or two to figure it out. It’s basically are you physically talented enough to swing at too many pitches but still figure it out and do what you are supposed to do in terms of reaching the ceiling. Waters is obviously somewhere between Luis Robert and Acuña at the very top of the scale of physical skills, . . .then Lewis Brinson is . . .in the area where it’s like this guy has really got to improve his pitch selection and might never figure it out as a result. I think Waters is like a little north of Brinson but not that far, and maybe he settles as like Starling Marte where it’s like a really good, above-average everyday player, but never quite gets as good as he could (be). . . Alex Rios is another example of this. This is (who) he’s like, and only one of them I gave you was actually bad. So I think he has a similar floor as Pache. (he’s) Not as a speed and defense . . .fringe to solid everyday player . . . he might go on bad streaks. He might not get to all of his power, but he has a chance to have five plus tools . . . . . . (his) ceiling is really high and the floor isn’t that low, but there’s still a big gap for guys in Triple-A similar to Pache. (But he has a) different sort of concern.
Atlanta Braves catching prospects ranked.
Q: Everybody is talking about (our) catchers . . . Alex Jackson probably going to back up this year. . . then we’re sitting on William Contreras and Shea Langeliers, . . . after that . . . the system sort of looks pretty thin until we get down (to) AA level or single-A. . . Are the catchers worth it? Which one will make it, and is the system going to collapse on itself when we get these guys out of the way?
Kiley McDaniel: . . . I think it was the Atlanta Braves and the White Sox were two teams I had pinpointed in today’s article saying they’re going to crater just because they have a bunch of guys that are about to graduate and not a ton of depth behind them . . .part of that is . . .the international sanctions . . . but also (the system is) very concentrated at the upper levels and there wasn’t a lot of (support) incoming via trades (and) nothing incoming via prospects. The draft classes have been fine but not like amazing. There’s (no) Drew Waters type, taken (late) overall, and then shoot up to be (top) 30 something in baseball. It’s Shea Langeliers by the way. He’s the guy that could be the everyday guy. Again, catchers… get injured more. It’s tougher to protect them. They have to learn more. . . If everything goes to like 80th, 90th percentile outcome for him he’ll (play at ) AA by the end of the season (and) could be an answer by end of next season; could conceivably take that starting job from d’Arnaud (if signed again, but) I think he’d probably be another year behind that.
(That’s 2023 for Langeliers. ED)
William Contreras and Jackson (are) going to get looks this year . . . (Teams think) Jackson . . . at this point . . . he has 80-raw power and is a 20-hitter . . . and a 50-defender . . .it’s going to be real feast or famine . . . kind of . . . the last guy on your roster. He can catch if you need him to, (be a) bench bat . . .that kind of thing . . . I wouldn’t expect a ton out of him right now, but there is potential for more. But he’s also getting older. . . .William Contreras was a top-100 guy at one point. Looked like he was going to be more like his brother than (projected) when he was signed for I want to say $100k . . . He’s regressed a little bit . . . instead of like a bunch of average to above average tools, it’s more sort of fringe to average . . . . . . he’s trending more as like a backup, but he’s now at the upper level, so you can kind of judge him by his stats. But I would expect more of a backup that maybe has a good season or two sort of in that Tyler Flowers-ish area in terms of outcomes . . . So I would say Langeliers is definitely like the one to watch there.
(Watching Contreras in-game action, he’s not rounded into the defender I thought he’d become last year. Right now, I believe the catcher who hits gets to stay with the Atlanta Braves in April. ED.)
The Atlanta Braves suddenly have a few outfielders bubbling up that weren’t expected by many to make a mark so soon.
Q: We hear a lot of hype around Atlanta . . . about the Harris outfielders. . . Are they just guys or are they GUYS?
Kiley McDaniel: Trey Harris I think is just a guy. . . not that different than Dustin Peterson . . . a bench left fielder. A lot of teams want their bench outfielders to be able to play center or right, so I think he’s just fine . . . Michael Harris is the guy that’s a GUY, and I’m right now writing my breakouts . . . and he’s the guy for the Braves . . . he’s also in a similar spot to some of the guys I’ve mentioned . . . there’s not really bad information on his report and you’re kind of waiting, because this guy could just steamroll through the minors and be the top prospect in baseball if he like continues not having any problems. But he also was like a guy that wasn’t even seen as a top three-round prospect until midway through his spring. . . You just don’t have a lot of information.
But all the stuff the Braves have gotten sort of behind closed doors in terms of like pre-draft workouts and TrackMan stuff and alternate site stuff, they think this guy is already a top-100 prospect. I think he’s in that area with a lot of first-round picks, like a Pete Crow-Armstrong, a mid-first round pick from last year.
If he goes as a 19-year-old to Low-A and performs, he’ll be top 100 because it sort of verifies what you thought you saw. You already know the tools are there. Harris is right there, too. If he has a strong first month or two he’ll be on the top 100, because everything is there for him to potentially play center field, potentially above average power. Like the tools aren’t wildly different than Drew Waters. We just don’t really have any numbers or performance to look at yet.
(Interesting comparison to Drew Waters in the last comment. I know he’s impressed enough this spring to make it into starting lineups, so Brain Snitker and coaches can get a look at him against top competition. Rain prevented him from starting, but doing enough to get the look early is saying something. ED)
When the moderator asked if anyone had more questions, I jumped in with two about the Atlanta Braves future pitchers.
How good is the next wave of Atlanta Braves pitchers?
Q: What about the Burroughs and the other . . . next level of pitchers . . . it seems like we’ve got a couple three and four starters. a bunch of relievers, then come the A-Ball prospects.
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah . . . once you get past Ian Anderson — and Touki Toussaint is not eligible for the list anymore but I think he probably fits into this — back end starters and relievers . . . I’m looking like Bryse Wilson is . . . probably a No. 4 starter when it comes down to it. Tucker Davidson I think will be a reliever, but there’s still a chance he can dial stuff down and throw more strikes and be a starter. Jared Shuster was sort of like a pop-up college guy . . . Might be a third or fourth starter, but it’s probably more fourth, fifth. Kyle Muller I think is a reliever; Ynoa is probably a reliever; de la Cruz is probably a reliever; Tarnok probably a back end guy; Vodnik reliever; Jeremy Walker, reliever; Pfeifer reliever. You kind of get where this is going. And there’s some exciting guys from the most recent draft, like Bryce Elder, sinker, slider, starter. I wouldn’t say exciting, but . . .could be higher on this list. Spencer Strider, Ricky DeVito, Tyler Owens, all guys from the last two draft classes that are in the high 90s, along with Vodnik. Like there’s some exciting guys, but I still don’t think they’re any better than like a seventh or eighth-inning guy when it comes down to it.
Q: I always pictured Wilson as a back-end closer. He has the mentality and the stuff for a fastball-slider reliever, go in and blow people away and eat them on the way off the mound. . . .
Kiley McDaniel: . . .like you’re saying, I think his mentality fits better like later in the game, maybe even multiple innings rather than like spots, sort of has to conserve his stamina and whatnot. . . . in general the team can have an eighth-inning guy or a fourth starter. They’ll take a fourth starter, so. . . they’re going to push in that direction, but I definitely agree the mentality seems like that (of a closer).
My Atlanta Braves’ Spring Training thoughts
The Muller as a reliever idea struck me a little odd, and I think that’s due to this lack of current information he discussed. In David’ O’Brien’s last podcast (subscription required), he mentioned that Muller was throwing 96-99 consistently and had touched triple digits.
When you’re a 6’-7 lefty who blows high-nineties heat, the only thing keeping you from being a mid-to top of the rotation starter is keeping all of your long levers under control. If Muller does that and repeats his delivery, he’ll scare a lot of lefty hitters to death.
O’Brien also mentioned Vodnik pitching in the 96-99 area, which isn’t a real surprise. I wrote in my 2018 draft report that he was slinging it at 95 when he was 18-years-old. Hearing that Tarnok was pushing 95 as well might move him up the list of available arms this year.
Pache’s strike-zone awareness looks the same now as it did in the NLCS, but his body looks bigger and stronger. He’s hitting the ball with power to the opposite field; they have fallen in for hits, but the way he’s using the whole field is impressive.
That’s a wrap
I apologize for waiting this long to get the full text of the Q and A up, but life has a way of diverting my attention.
Next. We have at least two winners coming.. dark
If you have an ESPN+ subscription, check out Kiley’s top-100 list. My thanks to Kiley, ESPN, and FanSided for the invitation. It was an informative and interesting Q&A, with a bunch of real reporters asking questions and me trying not to trip over myself. I hope I get to do it again.