Despite the breakout 2020 season, Max Fried is projected to have some major regression in 2021.
While it was apparent that Max Fried would have some regression in 2021, some projection models are not being too kind to the young pitcher.
Here are some of the projection models on FanGraphs:
- The Bat- 29 Starts, 170 IP, 11-9, 4.34 ERA, 8.25 K/9, & 2.97 BB/9.
- ATC- 29 Starts, 165 IP, 13-7, 3.86 ERA, 8.57 K/9, & 3.07 BB/9.
- Depth Charts- 29 Starts, 170 IP, 13-9, 4.01 ERA, 8.74 K/9, & 3.34 BB/9.
- Steamer- 29 Starts, 171 IP, 12-9, 3.99 ERA, 8.41 K/9, & 3.38 BB/9.
- ZiPS- 26 Starts, 145 IP, 12-8, 4.03 ERA, 9.06 K/9, & 3.29 BB/9.
The projection models are not in Max Fried’s favor for the upcoming 2021 season. Expecting him to jump from a 2.25 ERA to approximately a 4 ERA.
This would be a disappointing turn of events. It would seem these models are expecting Fried to be closer to his 2019 form than his 2020 form where he did get some CY Young chatter.
The shortened 2020 season does provide a smaller sample size, so it does make sense that the projection models may be bleak on Fried going forward. However, if he continues to force weak contact, cuts his BB/9 rate back down, and finds a way to increase the K%, he should be able to avoid a nearly two-run jump in ERA.
The biggest knock on Fried’s 2020 was his drop in K% and BB%. In 2019 he posted a K% of 24.6% and a BB% of 6.7%. In 2020 his K% was 22.3% and his BB% was 8.5%.
This is not an ideal trend and could be impacting his projections for 2021. If he is having trouble striking guys out and preventing walks, something that he has a lot of control over, then the models are going to think Fried was luckier than some and thus project a stronger regression.
While Fried did allow the ball to be put in play more, we have seen that he was creating a lot of weak contact. This is further illustrated by strong xBA (.201), xSLG (.289), and xwOBA (.257).
In English, opposing hitters were having trouble driving the ball against Fried. This is also illustrated with his 0.32 HR/9 in 2020.
In a strikeout driven league, Max Fried has figured out how to create weak contact with the elite defense that the Braves provide behind him. If he can figure out how to strike out guys at a higher clip, and walk fewer batters, he could continue to climb higher amongst the starting pitcher ranks.