Braves 2021 Player Previews: Ronald Acuna Jr., the Phenom
Ronald Acuña Jr. has done nothing but produce since arriving in Atlanta. Will this phenom continue to rise in 2021?
A few days ago, we previewed Ozzie Albies for the upcoming 2021 season, now it is time to preview his buddy Ronald Acuña Jr. What can we expect from the young phenom in 2021?
Let us start by looking at Acuña’s 2020 season with the Atlanta Braves. To the surprise of no one, it was a phenomenal season.
In 46 games, Ronald Acuña finished with a .250/.406/.581 line. Acuña also hit 14 HR, 46 R, 29 RBI, 8 SB, a 158 wRC+, and a 2.4 fWAR.
Over a full season, that is a pace of 37.8 HR, 124.2 Rs 78.3 RBI, and 21.6 SB. Remember, he missed 14 games in a 60 season, which means this is what these numbers translate to a 124 game pace rather than 162 games. He probably plays 140-145 games, meaning these numbers would look even better.
Some may find some concerns over his average dropping from .280 in 2019 to .250 in 2020. However, batting average does not tell a full story. Look at all the other numbers.
Acuña raised his BB% to 18.8% (10.6% in 2019) which was in the top 1% in all of baseball. He also improved his SLG to .581 (.518 in 2019), ISO to .331 (.238 in 2019), and his wOBA rose to .413 (.369).
Looking at Ronald Acuña’s baseball savant page shows an even more impressive story. Here is how his advanced metrics compared to the rest of the league.
- Top 9% in average exit velocity- 92.4
- Top 5% in barrel rate- 16.0%
- Top 4% in xSLG- .590
- Top 3% in xwOBA- .401
- Top 2% in wOBA- .407
- Top 1% in hard hit rate- 57.0%
A reminder that Ronald Acuña is only 23 years old. He should continue to get better over the next few seasons.
Atlanta Braves fans should be thrilled to have Ronald Acuña locked up for several seasons. He will be a joy to watch at the top of this Atlanta Braves lineup for a long time.
Ronald Acuña is projected to have a big 2021 for the Atlanta Braves.
There are two questions that I know people are asking about Ronald Acuña in 2021. The first is, what is next for the young star? The second question is, can he pull off a 40/40 season?
We know he has the talent to put up gaudy numbers. Let us start by looking at the projection models.
Here are some projection models from Fangraphs:
- The Bat- .281/.376/.540 40 HRs, 120 Rs,104 RBIs, 31 SBs, and a 141 wrc+.
- ATC- .277/.379/.546 39 HRs, 119 Rs, 95 RBIs, 30 SBs and a 144 wrc+.
- Depth Charts- .282/.385/.559 42 HRs, 125 Rs, 107 RBIs, 30 SBs, and a 141 wrc+.
- Steamer- .281/.381/.551 41 HRs, 119 Rs, 101 RBIs, 28 SBs, and a 137 wrc+.
- ZiPS- .282/.390/.568 43 HRs, 134 Rs, 115 RBIs, 33 SBs, and a 145 wrc+.
Pretty bold predictions from the projection systems that are usually extremely cautious. Essentially, Ronald is projected to hit around .280, approximately 40 HRs, around 230 Runs plus RBIs, and 30 steals.
If that happens, Freddie Freeman is going to have competition for the 2021 MVP title from his own teammate.
If there is one knock on Ronald Acuña’s game it would be his swing and miss rate. His K% jumped from 26.3% in 2019 to 29.7% in 2020.
However, Ronald was actually more selective at the plate in 2020. Remember, his walk rate jumped from 10.6% in 2019 to 18.8% in 2020.
Looking at his plate discipline chart on baseball savant shows a patient hitter. Ronald’s chase % dropped from 24.0% to 20.1% and his zone swing % dropped from 68.6% to 63.3%. His overall swing percentage dropped from 45.5% to 40.5%.
The difference was a dip in contact rate. Zone contact % dropped from 76.9% to 73.7%. Meanwhile, his whiff rate jumped from 27.7% to 29.9%.
Ronald made less contact in 2020, but he was swinging at far fewer pitches. This shows that he may be becoming a more disciplined hitter at the plate and looking for better pitches to drive.
This has to be encouraging as a whole that Ronald is trying to become more selective at the plate rather than just swing at any pitch. If he can continue to become more disciplined at the plate as he ages, he has the potential to become the most dangerous hitter in the game.
While he was making slightly less contact, it turns out that he was making better contact. This combined with a better approach at the plate shows that Ronald is growing as a hitter.
Ronald growing as a hitter has to excite the Braves for his future and worry the rest of the league as well.
The Sky is the Limit for the Young Superstar.
It is something that most have known for quite some time, but Ronald Acuña has the talent to be one of the best players to ever play. It might be time he solidifies himself as one of the top five players in all of baseball.
Ronald could easily put together a 40/40 season. He also has the power to hit 50 home runs in a season. Acuña could also find a way to hit 250 runs and RBIs in a given season.
Acuña is a special talent.
There is a reason that Acuña finds himself at the top of most fantasy baseball dynasty rankings. Everyone knows the talent he possesses and how good he can be for a long time.
If I were to projected Ronald’s 2021 season myself, I would probably go with something like: .290/.380/.565 with 40+ HRs, 230+ runs and RBIs, and somewhere in the 30-35 SB range.
I also expect him to be challenging Freddie Freeman for the NL MVP award in 2021.
Ronald is the catalyst for the Braves lineup. He is arguably the most dangerous leadoff hitter in the game.
He has the ability to start the game with a 450-foot bomb or to get on base in front of guys like Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, and the rest of the Braves lineup and do some serious damage on the base paths.
2021 could be a big year for Ronald Acuña, and the Atlanta Braves, as they look to go even further than they did in 2020 when they were only one win away from a World Series berth.
What's that, AA?. dark. Next
Thankfully, we get to watch the incredible talent that is Ronald Acuña in a Braves uniform every night and for the next several seasons.