What signifies that a team is “All In”? Usually, it’s when the Front Office makes that Big Last Move to get a player to put them over the top of their opponents.
It’s the Fred McGriff trade. It’s the Justin Verlander deal. It’s the Mookie Betts bet. The Mets just made their own move in getting Francisco Lindor with Carlos Carrasco.
Thus there is definitely merit in signing the best catcher in baseball, for this would be a similar blockbuster-level deal.
You might say “but Travis d’Arnaud outplayed him in 2020!” The stats generally agree with that, yes. However…
- Fangraphs gave Realmuto a 1.7 fWAR for 2020 and d’Arnaud a 1.6 — with the difference being better defense by Realmuto.
- Over their careers, d’Arnaud has 11.9 fWAR; Realmuto 19.0 (and d’Arnaud started earlier).
- d’Arnaud is nearly 32 years old; Realmuto will be 30 in March.
- This is no slight to d’Arnaud: he’s been very good — especially in the past couple of years. In nearly every category, though, Realmuto beats him.
- This includes ‘games played’, which means that the Braves could get away with using Alex Jackson or William Contreras as their backup catcher rather than paying more for someone who’d only catch about once a week and warm up pitchers.
- In fact, Realmuto has the highest number of games played at the catching position in the majors since he became a full-timer at the position in 2015.
But because d’Arnaud is very good means that the Braves will be able to trade him elsewhere for both value and for a cost-savings if they sign Realmuto in such a scenario.
The Atlanta Braves could achieve long-term stability with J.T. Realmuto.
The Braves would have the option of obtaining a solid, young left fielder — via trade (Toronto, Boston, perhaps elsewhere) or through a signing — because d’Arnaud’s $8 million contract would immediately come off the books.
Another point in favor of Realmuto involves the stability of the Braves’ lineup. It’s been widely speculated that the catcher is looking for a contract of at least 5 years in length, and that the Phillies have made such an offer.
Thus to sign him, Atlanta would commit to the All-Star from at least 2021 through 2025 — which nicely coincides with the long-term deals — or simple team control — they already have on the books for their core players.
In fact, once Freddie Freeman gets his anticipated extension, all position players outside of the left field and shortstop positions would be under control through at least 2025 — a great stability thing for a team with World Series aspirations.
Finally, with such a player locked up, some of the Atlanta Braves catching prospects — namely Contreras and Shea Langeliers — could be considered for trade bait since both would be blocked by a 5-year Realmuto presence.
Trading either is not something you’d necessarily want or need to do, but it does provide more options that would assist the Braves in future trade discussions at other positions down the road, particularly since their farm system is a bit thin.