Braves sign Ambioris Tavarez, Reach Arb Agreements With Two
By Fred Owens
The Atlanta Braves agreed on contracts with two arbitration-eligible players today, but two other players decided to make their case with the arbiter.
Guesses, good and bad.
On our most recent podcast (scheduled to come out on Saturday), I said I believed two players would sign today, and two wouldn’t. I got that part right, but only one of the players.
I predicted A.J. Minter would agree on a contract today, and he did; one-year at $1.3M, above MLBTR’s low projection but below their high estimate.
Minter had a bounce-back year in the abbreviated 2020 season and looked like the back of the bullpen arm the Braves expected when they signed him. He finished the season with 24 strikeouts in 21 1/3 IP and a minuscule 0.83 ERA and 2.82 FIP.
Max Fried reached an agreement for his Super-Two arb-year today, signing a one-year $3.25M deal. Fried was the backbone and heart of the rotation in 2020, starting 11 games, throwing 56 innings, striking out 50 and walking 19 while pitching to a 2.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and finishing fifth in Cy Young voting.
Atlanta Braves
Fried was equally effective in postseason play, shutting out Cincinnati over seven innings and pitching to a 2.82 ERA against the Dodgers in two starts.
I expected the Braves would have a hard time signing Mike Soroka, but Dansby Swanson joining him and deciding to go to arbitration muddies the waters.
Soroka’s filing number is $2.8 million and Swanson’s is $6.7 million. Both players are $700K above the Braves’ offers ($2.1m and $6m, respectively).
Extensions or actual trial?
The first thing that popped into my head was the Braves working to extend both players. A deal for Swanson might come in around four years, and $44 to $48M with options and incentives taking it to $60M; that takes Dansby to at least his age 30.
A deal for Soroka isn’t as clear cut.
Pitchers are fragile. While Soroka had a superb 2019 season, it was only one season. He pitched five games in 2018 due to a shoulder injury and made three starts in 2020 before another injury ended his season. Most evaluators like to see a player perform for three seasons to figure out who he is.
Mike earned Super-Two because IL time while on the active roster counts as Major League service time, but he has only 214 innings pitched at the highest level. I understand the Achilles’ injury just happened, but I also understand that some bodies break more often than others.