Braves sign Ambioris Tavarez, Reach Arb Agreements With Two

The Atlanta Braves agreed on contracts with two arbitration-eligible players today, but two other players decided to make their case with the arbiter.

Guesses, good and bad.

On our most recent podcast (scheduled to come out on Saturday), I said I believed two players would sign today, and two wouldn’t. I got that part right, but only one of the players.

I predicted A.J. Minter would agree on a contract today, and he did; one-year at $1.3M, above MLBTR’s low projection but below their high estimate.

Minter had a bounce-back year in the abbreviated 2020 season and looked like the back of the bullpen arm the Braves expected when they signed him. He finished the season with 24 strikeouts in 21 1/3 IP and a minuscule 0.83 ERA and 2.82 FIP.

Max Fried reached an agreement for his Super-Two arb-year today, signing a one-year $3.25M deal. Fried was the backbone and heart of the rotation in 2020, starting 11 games, throwing 56 innings, striking out 50 and walking 19 while pitching to a 2.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and finishing fifth in Cy Young voting.

Atlanta Braves

Fried was equally effective in postseason play, shutting out Cincinnati over seven innings and pitching to a 2.82 ERA against the Dodgers in two starts.

I expected the Braves would have a hard time signing Mike Soroka, but Dansby Swanson joining him and deciding to go to arbitration muddies the waters.

Soroka’s filing number is $2.8 million and Swanson’s is $6.7 million. Both players are $700K above the Braves’ offers ($2.1m and $6m, respectively).

Extensions or actual trial?

The first thing that popped into my head was the Braves working to extend both players. A deal for Swanson might come in around four years, and $44 to $48M with options and incentives taking it to $60M; that takes Dansby to at least his age 30.

A deal for Soroka isn’t as clear cut.

Pitchers are fragile. While Soroka had a superb 2019 season, it was only one season. He pitched five games in 2018 due to a shoulder injury and made three starts in 2020 before another injury ended his season. Most evaluators like to see a player perform for three seasons to figure out who he is.

Mike earned Super-Two because IL time while on the active roster counts as Major League service time, but he has only 214 innings pitched at the highest level. I understand the Achilles’ injury just happened, but I also understand that some bodies break more often than others.

If the Atlanta Braves are negotiating an extension, how long do they ask for, and how much are they willing to risk?

Before I go on, it’s worth noting that the agreement between MLB and the MLBPA on service time for 2020 also said that the arbitration salaries this year do not count as platform-year figures.

To extend or not to extend, is that the question?

If the Atlanta Braves are attempting to buy out Soroka, they have to get at least his four arbitration years. Trevor Bauer earned $3.5M his first year, followed by $6.25M, and  $13M before the Reds gave him a $17.5M deal for 2020.

Soroka isn’t Bauer, and his numbers won’t be as high. He was projected to earn just under $2M in 2021; assuming he pitches like it’s 2019, then becomes human, he’ll jump to around $5M, then to $11M, and finally $15M.  A four-year buy-out then looks like $36M to $40M for round numbers and an AAV of $9M to $10M.

At that point, Soroka is 28-ish and looking for contracts over $18M. There’s a certainty factor in having guaranteed years and money that reduces the number a bit, so taking him to age 30 wouldn’t necessarily add $40M to the deal, so six-years – $72M may work. However, is that something we can expect? Probably not.

Remember Lowe?

Still smarting from losing AJ Burnette to the Yankees, Frank Wren gave Derek Lowe a four-year, $60M deal in January 2009. That remains the longest deal for a pitcher in the last 20 years. Tim Hudson’s four-year, $47M deal is next on the list.

The longest contract GM Alex Anthopoulos ever gave a pitcher was a five-year, $30M deal to Rickey Romero, before the 2011 season, which went bad pretty quickly.

All things considered, a four-year deal is the most we can expect from the Atlanta Brave franchise and our GM, but I don’t expect that deal either.  I’ve seen too many studs sink quickly into the sunset after injury. More importantly, so have the Braves.

There’s another consideration in this as well. Fried carried the team in 2020 and pitched well in 2019. if you extend Soroka and not Fried; how do you explain that, and how does Max feel when it happens.

That’s a Wrap

I think the situation is exactly what it seems on the surface; file and trial. When teams work on an extension for a player like Swanson or Soroka and are close to a deal, the player typically signs the one year offer knowing it’s torn up when the extension takes effect.

The Atlanta Braves don’t negotiate after the deadline — they’ve been negotiating for a while, two weeks won’t make a difference. Arbitration cases aren’t friendly meetings, no one likes them, which means one side or the other is making a statement or has unreasonable expectations.

The numbers have been exchanged, and many will ask why they can’t meet in the middle. For now, all we know is that two important members of the team are in disagreement with the front office, and that’s never a good sign.