Atlanta Braves roster building: Has Alex Anthopoulos done well?
After two early signings, the Atlanta Braves postseason is snoozing in its recliner, as it’s done the last three offseasons. How long will that strategy succeed?
Since Alex Anthopoulos took over as Atlanta Braves‘ President of Baseball Operations and GM, his roster-building approach is best classified as conservative. It wasn’t until the success of the 2019 team that he made moves to increase payroll and meaningful veterans.
Tthen the pandemic hit and we have no idea how successful that build was.
Prior to the last podcast, Jake asked if fans had any issues they wanted to hear discussed. Patrick McCarthy wanted to know whether the GM was now predictable, if his strategy was working, and how well he’s done since taking over. Answering those questions requires a look back.
Atlanta Braves and the last three years.
After the 2017 season, Anthopoulos engineered a trade of Matt Kemp that netted Charlie Culberson, Brandon McCarthy and a cup of coffee with Scott Kazmir, and it also cleared money he would try to use in 2019. The rest of that offseason consisted of signing depth pieces adding Anibal Sanchez on March third.
While the rest of the NL east spun its wheels, the Atlanta Braves got off to a roaring start, and at the deadline, Anthopoulos added Jonny Venters, Brad Brach, Adam Duvall, Kevin Gausman and an Injured Darren O’Day — without giving anything significant away.
Buoyed by reaching the postseason, Braves fans expected additions to take them to the next level. It started well, with the addition of Josh Donaldson who proved a resounding success, and Brain McCann signing for almost nothing.
In January, fans saw the return of Luke Jackson and Nick Markakis, followed by Matt Joyce as camps closed in March. When Dallas Keuchel’s price included only money without loss of a draft pick, Anthopoulos added him to a rotation that needed help.
In his biggest deal since taking over, Anthopoulos added Shane Greene, Chris Martin and Mark Melancon at the deadline, without losing a significant piece.
The success of 2019, and increased income from postseason play made a more aggressive approach in 2020 possible, but chaos intervened.
After coming up short for the second season in the playoffs, the GM finally decided to add veteran stability to the Atlanta Braves roster. In November, he gave out his first multi-year contracts to Travis d’Arnaud, Chris Martin, and Will Smith.
In late December, he added Cole Hamels to the Major League roster, followed by Marcell Ozuna in January. He also brought back Josh Tomlin and added Felix Hernandez on minor leagues deals.
Unfortunately for the Braves, neither Hamels nor Hernandez pitched significant innings in 2020, and the pandemic meant we’d never know how those additions would play out over 162 games.
Success on the field
The Atlanta Braves were successful over the last three seasons, because of the core of players added by disgraced former Braves GM John Coppolella. To his credit, Alex Anthopoulos said this in interviews many times.
The addition of Donaldson and Ozuna and his deadline deals in 2018 and 2019, pushed the team over the line in 2019 and 2020. However, the pipeline of prospects Coppolella created is virtually gone; the future of the club now rests solely in Alex Anthopoulos’ hands
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The Rule 4 draft picks the Braves lost are part of the reason of the Braves minor league system is thin, but only a small part. The biggest reason lies in the restrictions placed on international signings.
The prospects MLB turned into free agents MLB aren’t the issue. To date, none of those players turned into anything the team needs. It’s the loss of new players the group of young players the team would normally sign that’s biting now.
In a typical International signing period, the Atlanta Braves would snag one or two really good prospects, and add others with the potential to become a find. The team did sign a handful of international free agents, but the best went elsewhere.
Baseball America (subscription required) still ranks the Atlanta Braves seventh overall, and points to the restrictions as a reason the lower levels are thin.
The Skinny: The Braves successfully graduated wave after wave of top prospects and won back-to-back division titles as a result. There are still some potential impact players left in the system, but the negative effects of their international signing penalties can be seen in the lower levels.
Fortunately, the international signing limitation ends in 2021, Unfortunately, the pandemic and reductions in scouting staff won’t make on-boarding players easy.
The strategy behind the Atlanta Braves 2019 is baffling. Of the 40 players selected, only two were highly ranked prospects.
Once you get past the Braves round-one choice of ninth-ranked Shea Langeliers and their round-two choice Braden Shewmake (ranked either 27th or 32nd depending on your favorite ranking system), none of the players ranked better than 162 or 114. Three first-round picks were unranked, two were ranked between 225 and 250. one was ranked 367, and another at 425.
Players are unranked because they haven’t impressed scouts that they have what it takes to become major leaguers. If the Braves had saved money on the draft I’d at least understand the reason, but they didn’t save a dime.
When the draft ended, I said the selections looked like an attempt to fill the minor leagues vacancies, not grab the best talent. If that was the the idea, it succeeded, but added few players with significant projection… and that’s an odd way to run a franchise.
The system today
As I write this, the Atlanta Braves have four top 100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline; Pache and Anderson graduate this year, and Waters likely follows next year, leaving only Langeliers
Langeliers isn’t on Baseball America’s top 100 (subscription required) list, but Kyle Wright was after the 2020 draft. I believe he’s graduated now and will drop off after the next update. BA shows Wright, Kyle Muller, and Bryse Wilson ahead of Langeliers, with William Contreras immediately after him.
I know many believe Contreras is prospect level, and I don’t disagree, but those who produce the ranking do.
It’s extremely difficult to develop talent at the best of times, and for the farm system, the best of times is gone, at least for now.
When the Atlanta Braves brought Alex Anthopoulos in to clean up the mess and keep the ship afloat, pundits called him a gunslinger; they were wrong, very wrong.
When he took over in Toronto, Anthopoulos was ready to begin a rebuild. His early moves look exactly like the moves he’s made for Atlanta, then Jose Bautista figured out how to hit a lot of home runs and changed everything. As I look at every move he made while Toronto’s GM it’s easy to see the transition.
The lineup and rotation needed help, so he gave out his first multi-year contracts; Bautista’s worked well, the others were okay. he began making deals needed to make them a challenger, but it was after the 2012 season that he made the big moves; acquiring half of the Marlins team and trading Thor for R.A. Dickey.
He got the team to the postseason and took on lots of payroll to do it, but the Jays never won the big prize. When he left the Blue Jays had a $152M payroll, an old roster, and a thin minor league system. I believe his experience then weighs heavily on what he’s done for the Atlanta Braves.
How do you spell success?
The Atlanta Braves were successful over the last three seasons, in large part because of the core of players added by Coppolella.
He struck gold with the addition of Donaldson and Ozuna, and his deadline deals in 2018 and 2019, pushed the team over the line, but only Darren O’Day in 2018, and his 2019 deadline trades provided long term improvement.
Anthopoulos hoarded prospects very well. In the 26 trades affecting the Major League roster, he sent money or a PTBNL instead of a prospect on all but eight occasions. When he did send players they were replaceable; a handful became relief pitchers but none left a hole in the system. On the other hand, many of the retained prospects haven’t done much either.
Acuna and Albies debuted in Anthopoulos’ first season, and the new GM wasn’t going to do anything until he’d figured out everyone’s name. Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and in a short look, Ian Anderson moved the needle.
Wilson, Riley, and Newcomb showed why they were selected in flashes, but lacked consistency. Others came and went, some may be stars one day, but so far, they’re depth.
Is that success?
We can only watch what the Atlanta Braves do and draw conclusions. Like all teams, what goes on behind closed doors is largely kept secret.
As fans, we know what’s said in interviews, but have little idea what internal reports say, or what financial pressures exist. The only thing we can judge is how well. trades and signings turn out.
Aside from the deals for relievers mentioned earlier, and a few role players who had some great games, the Anthopoulos trades were non-events, and in one case a complete disaster.
The Ozuna and Donaldson signings were a big success and Travis d’Arnaud made a great start to his contract, but Will Smith remains an unanswered question; relievers are fragile. If there’s really no such thing as a bad one-year deal, his record on signings ends there. Other than extensions for Ozzie and Ronnie, his only multi-year deals are d’Arnaud, Smith and Martin.
Conclusions?
When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time. Maya Angelou
The moves we’ve seen Alex Anthopoulos make are who he is as a GM. Before getting swept up in the euphoria of the Joey Bats era, these are the kind of moves he made.
Given the chance to go back and do things differently, I doubt he’d trade for half of the Marlins or give Thor away for Dickey. His deal for Donaldson worked for Toronto, but the Tulo deal was a bust as were many of his long-term contracts.
Experience taught him the long term deals are a bad idea, unless they’re inexpensive or the player is a superstar.
Reality says that long term deals are the only way to gain consistency.
Experience taught him to proceed very cautiously with big trades that may not last.
Reality says caution is warranted, but you don’t get a hit if you don’t swing the bat.
Experience says trading a stud prospect for an aging veteran may come back and bite you,
Reality says one should understand the difference between a stud, a dud, and depth. Prospects – even stud prospects – may win something someday.
However there’s no way of knowing when someday will come. The game’s about winning; to paraphrase Leo Durocher, be smart, don’t save every prospect for the future. Win now, that prospect may never win a thing.
Considering the challenges he faced, I find the Anthopoulos-era’ success level okay, but not inspiring.
That’s a Wrap
In my view, the time is now to make a deal to give the team a roster capable of winning now and for the years to come.
I understand that it takes two teams to agree on value before a trade is possible, but for the right return, none of the prospects in our system are off-limits.
Left field?. dark. Next
Waiting for a prospect to become a star is a lot like waiting for your ship to come in. In some cases it’s a great idea, but sometimes you have to swim out and meet it.