Atlanta Braves: Will Smith Poised to Bounce Back in 2021
It was a great debut with the Atlanta Braves for Will Smith in 2020, but he’s more than capable of bouncing back in 2021.
When the Atlanta Braves decided to give a long-term deal to a relief pitcher last offseason — and give up a draft pick in the process — it came as a bit of a shock.
Alex Anthopoulos had already put together a pretty good bullpen, and getting Will Smith seemed like the cherry on top.
But things didn’t get off to a great start in Atlanta. He missed the beginning of the season because of COVID-19 and then gave up four home runs in his first seven outings.
His ERA in eight August appearances was 5.87 with 5 runs in 7.2 innings on 7 hits and 1 walk with 8 strikeouts.
That carried over into September where he gave up a home run in two of his first three outings that month.
But then he was lights out over his next six outings allowing just 1 hit and 1 walk over 4.1 innings with 4 strikeouts.
Smith ended the regular season giving up another home run making that 7 home runs allowed on the year in just 16 innings. Seven of the 11 hits he gave up on the year left the yard — that seems impossible.
It seemed like he had turned a corner late in September though, and going into the playoffs. In his first five postseason appearances, he didn’t allow a single run over 5.1 innings with 7 strikeouts.
But then he struggled mightily in Game 4 allowing a run on a hit and 2 walks before getting pulled. And then he gave up the big home run to the other Will Smith in Game 5 that swung all the momentum to LA.
Brian Snitker didn’t give him another shot in games six and seven.
The Braves still owe him $13 million over the next two seasons and have a $13 million team option ($1 million buyout) for the 2023 season.
He’s still just 31 and has one of the nastiest sweeping sliders in baseball.
Atlanta hasn’t really made an effort this offseason — that we know of — to bring back closer Mark Melancon, so you’d have to think Smith gets a shot at the job in 2021.
MLB.com just recently wrote an article talking about a player from each team that is hoping for a better 2021 season and mentioned Smith for the Braves.
He’s honestly just been too good in the past, and the home run ratio was too absurd in 2020, for him not to have a better 2021.
It’s honestly the same issue that Mike Foltynewicz has — when he doesn’t have a feel for the slider, it gets punished. But when his slider is on he’s nearly unhittable.
Smith still got a 55 percent whiff rate on the slider in 2020, but when it hung it got hit hard. In 2019 the hard-hit rate on his slider was just 31.4 percent but it was 63.6 in 2020.
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I expect that number to drop significantly in 2021 back to his career norms, and I full expect Smith to become the shutdown closer for the Braves we all envisioned.