It will be neither easy nor cheap, but the Atlanta Braves are looking at putting the band back together.
When discussing his season last night on the MLB Network, newly-minted NL MVP Freddie Freeman noted how nice it was to be sandwiched in a lineup between Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna. That combination directly led to the best Atlanta Braves offense in years — and maybe ever.
With that backdrop, it’s apparent that despite team revenue issues, cost issues, and more… Alex Anthopoulos is going to take a shot at bringing Ozuna back for 2021 — at the very least.
No less than 10 teams, including the Braves, have showed interest in Marcell Ozuna, who led the NL with 18 home runs and 56 RBI and finished 6th in MVP voting. Interest comes from both leagues but it can’t hurt that the universal DH is on the horizon.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 13, 2020
10+ teams. Yikes. But that’s what happens when you have a career-year season… albeit a shortened season.
In 2020, Ozuna was able to demonstrate just how good he could be when fully healthy, posting a 175 OPS+, a 2.3 bWAR, and leading the NL in total bases with 145.
How good was this? If you extrapolate that bWAR figure over 162 games, it comes out to 6.2 — easily besting his previous career-high of 5.7 from 2017.
This was 7th in the NL among position players and it clearly was a help to Freeman with his own production (2.9 bWAR, 2nd in the league).
The Price Tag
Of course, when you do that — particularly in a thin free-agent slugger market — it raises your price, and there’s the rub.
The MLB Trade Rumors site has projected a new contract deal of 4 years and $72 million for Ozuna, for the newly-celebrated 30-year-old (his birthday coincides with Veteran’s Day). Jim Bowden of TheAthletic (paywall) suggests 3 years and $54 million.
Both of these projections would be the precise AAV that he received (before pro-rating) in 2020: $18 million.
That’s probably not going to be enough.
Ozuna projects as a 1-way player going forward, and the Braves did indeed use him as their Designated Hitter for a good portion of the 2020 season. Ordinarily, that might reduce his value, but there are a couple of factors working against that theory:
- Supply (little) and Demand (high)
- The Mets’ eagerness to spend money (though they have many needs to fill)
- The chance that the Universal DH could begin almost immediately, raising the number of potential suitors significantly.
Even last season, the Braves found themselves outbid when one team — the Twins — stepped up and made the over-the-top offer to Josh Donaldson.
While Anthopoulos was able to turn that defeat into a victory by landing Ozuna on a 1-year deal, it’s almost certain that he won’t be able to pull off the same ploy during this off-season: there’s just nowhere else really to turn to find another ‘big bat’.
So it may just come down to this: do the Atlanta Braves push all of their chips to the middle of the table and offer Ozuna 5 years and $100 million?
If they do, that kind of contract offer would probably get it done. But the Braves haven’t been known for offering the ‘top dollar’ in recent years. In fact, under Anthopoulos’ leadership, it’s been more about calculating the value they believe is right (which has often made them competitive, but not a front-runner), making that offer, and then sticking to the numbers — win or lose.
That said, there’s a big reason why that philosophy should be changed.
Propping Open that Window
The Atlanta Braves are in a highly-competitive position right now. They have the following core to work with:
- Ozzie Albies – Age 23. Under control through at least 2025.
- Ronald Acuna – Age 22. Under control through at least 2026.
- Mike Soroka – Age 23. Under control through 2024.
- Max Fried – Age 26. Under control through 2024.
- Ian Anderson – Age 22. Under control through 2026.
Then there’s Freddie Freeman, who has been vocal about wanting to stay with the club forever. While that needs to get done, he’s certainly got another 5+ years of performance left in his tank that needs to be supported — particularly while the rest of these “kids” are also in the house.
So it’s a matter of doing the necessary things to make that happen… and the Braves appear to be exploring a means to do so with Ozuna.
Ozuna is represented by MDR Sports Management, which has been targeting players in the sport from Latin American countries. They have a sizeable clientele, though Ozuna is probably their marquee name right now. As such, they probably aren’t interested in any kind of discount — nor should they be.
One technique might be to suggest a monetary deferral to help the Braves be more competitive with their offer and to save some monies for use elsewhere: perhaps taking out $5-to-10 million from this next season’s wages and paying it out after the end of the contract’s regular term.
It’s not something the Braves have been known for, but strange times often call for creative thinking.
So it’s going to be difficult to bring Ozuna back, though if there’s a specific team with a real need here, it is the Atlanta Braves. We’ll all wait together to see how things play out during this long, cold Winter.