The off-season is upon us, and the Atlanta Braves will have some work to do.
The World Series went almost as anticipated (predication just missed thanks to a whacky end to Game 4), and the Atlanta Braves now have to figure out how to rebuild a stout team to begin a new assault on the summit for 2021.
It won’t be easy — but it never is. Let’s just start with the list of players that just became free agents (and their full 2020 contract values):
- Cole Hamels ($18 million)
- Marcell Ozuna ($18 million)
- Mark Melancon ($14 million)
- Shane Greene ($6.25 million)
- Tyler Flowers ($4 million)
- Nick Markakis ($4 million)
- Adeiny Hechavarria ($1 million)
- Josh Tomlin ($1 million)
- Charlie Culberson ($1 million)
- Pablo Sandoval (double-secret pro-rated ML minimum)
(Omitted others released or otherwise moved along the way:Â Matt Adams, Yonder Alonso, Jhoulys Chacin, Robbie Erlin, Felix Hernandez, etc.)
There is but a single club-option contract decision to be made: that for Darren O’Day. His 2021 salary is $3.5 million if the option is picked up; he’ll get a $500K parting gift if not… a $3 million difference
(O’Day was 4-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in 2020… let’s pick that up, please?)
In a normal year, that list would represent a very stout amount of cash now available to spend: at least $67.25 million. But of course, there’s nothing remotely normal about the way business is being conducted right now.
Technically, the Atlanta Braves now have 5 days — starting now — to exclusively negotiate with their free agents before they hit the open market… a time frame that almost never sees anyone of significance actually sign back with their original club.
There are a couple of special notes among the still-rostered players:
- Tyler Matzek: 30 years old, yet still not even arbitration-eligible. He’s still under team control through 2024.
- Adam Duvall:Â 32 years old, and still has 2 more years of team control available.
- After some uncertainty we had last week, it does appear that both Mike Soroka and Max Fried will begin the arbitration cycle this next season as Super 2 players… though there’s a chance of seeing the whole process change via a new Collective Bargaining Agreement after December 2021.
Who Might Return?
Among the free agents, it’s a difficult question. Here’s some guesses:
- Cole Hamels – no
- Marcell Ozuna – not likely unless he really wants to
- Mark Melancon – no
- Shane Greene – not likely… kinda ‘found himself’ this year and that will likely get him a nice multi-year deal elsewhere
- Tyler Flowers – not likely. The Braves have 3 possible youngster backup backstops plus the chance for younger backups around the league. Flowers is 35… about time to retire.
- Nick Markakis – very possible as a bench back and mentor.
- Adeiny Hechavarria ($1 million) – call this a 33% chance.
- Josh Tomlin ($1 million) – possible. He’s embraced the role.
- Charlie Culberson ($1 million) – a late pickup before Spring training if anything.
- Pablo Sandoval (ML minimum) – not likely.
- Darren O’Day – yes; believe the Braves will pick up this option.
So that leaves Atlanta needing to fill a big rotation hole — two starters needed for sure — and a big bat.
Given the success of the bullpen, one could also argue that one or two additional stout arms might also be needed… after all, it was that bullpen that mitigated against some of the troubles of the rotation this year.
Kinda sounds like the last off-season all over again, eh? So what should we expect?
We’ll see a few announcements this week, the team will have their meetings to review the organization from top to bottom, and then the real work will begin.
Overall: expect a long Winter… it’s going to be a difficult off-season once again.