As the Atlanta Braves get ready to take on the Reds, here’s a quick look at who’s hot and who’s not on both sides.
The Atlanta Braves won the NL East, but as Jake wrote Tuesday, the pundits largely favor the Reds. Of course, pundits expected a pitcher’s duel from the Shane Bieber – Gerrit Cole matchup, but it never materialized.
Alan gave you five reasons the Atlanta Braves will beat the usurpers and move to the next round, all of them circling a potent Braves lineup that finished at or near the top of most offensive lists.
The Braves roster:
- Led the NL with 130 doubles, 338 RBI, a .355 wOBA, .349 OBP, .832 OPS, .322 BAbip, 70.0 wRAA, 364 wRC
- Tied first in slugging with the Dodgers at .483
- Second behind the Dodgers in homers 118 to 103, runs 349 to 348, wRC+ 122 to 121
- Second behind the Mets for team BA .272 to .268 – the Mets also finished with 122 wRC+
The Reds weren’t in the same zip code, but their bats seemed to wake up in the last month, not enough to move them up the list in any category, but underestimating their potential is a mistake.
Getting hot at the right time?
Over the last 15 games, the Reds went 11-4, including taking two from the Twins over the weekend, and scoring 70 runs while allowing only 39.
The lineup below is the one Reds used most of that time, and the one they’ll likely run out against Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried.
| Name | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Shogo Akiyama | .324 | .444 | .378 | .823 | .054 | .429 | .375 | 133 |
| Nick Castellanos | .204 | .232 | .370 | .603 | .167 | .290 | .248 | 49 |
| Joey Votto | .244 | .414 | .556 | .969 | .311 | .280 | .412 | 157 |
| Eugenio Suarez | .214 | .353 | .476 | .829 | .262 | .300 | .358 | 121 |
| Mike Moustakas | .224 | .316 | .571 | .887 | .347 | .184 | .359 | 122 |
| Jesse Winker | .154 | .333 | .423 | .756 | .269 | .133 | .333 | 105 |
| Brian Goodwin | .150 | .250 | .450 | .700 | .300 | .091 | .289 | 76 |
| Freddy Galvis | .241 | .389 | .379 | .768 | .138 | .286 | .349 | 116 |
| Tucker Barnhart | .273 | .304 | .545 | .850 | .273 | .267 | .356 | 120 |
| Bench | ||||||||
| Nick Senzel | .080 | .080 | .120 | .200 | .040 | .100 | .085 | -59 |
| Curt Casali | .222 | .364 | .444 | .808 | .222 | .333 | .354 | 118.3 |
| Aristides Aquino | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 | .000 | .400 | .221 | 31 |
| Jose Garcia | .211 | .211 | .211 | .421 | .000 | .333 | .186 | 7.6 |
(Statistics courtesy Fangraphs splits page).
Akiyama is the catalyst, keep him off the bases. And getting to Votto with the bases empty means handling Castellanos, who didn’t become the power bat the Reds hoped for when they paid him all that money.
The former Tiger and Cubs’ slugger brought his power stroke with him and is tied with Ronald Acuna Jr. for 12th in the NL, with 14 homers. BAbip doesn’t like Castellanos very much this year, but he hits the ball hard. His 91mph average exit velocity ties him with Austin Riley, his 9.9 Brls/PA ties Freddie Freeman, and his 16% Brls/BBE ties him with Acuna for 12th in MLB.
Just as Freeman is the leader on the Atlanta Braves, Joey Votto leads the Reds. When the season is on the line, leaders step up; Votto’s done that this month, and in the last two weeks in particular.
Backing up Votto, veterans Moustakas, Suarez, Galvis, and a team catching duo with 11 homers between them, stiffened the lineup down the stretch.