Most teams (other than the Atlanta Braves) are stumbling to the finish line.
Who will the Atlanta Braves be facing next Wednesday as the playoffs begin? We are 3 games away from the end of the regular season, and that question is still not nearly decided.
One thing that is nearly put to rest: the #2 NL seed. By virtue of the Braves taking care of business against the Miami Marlins (3 games to 1) while the Cubs tripped over the Pirates (1 win against 3 losses), the Braves now own the tie-breaker in addition to a fairly comfortable 2 game lead.
One more Braves win or Cub loss will clinch that #2 seed for the Braves — making them the home team in any playoff matchup not involving the Dodgers.
Beyond that… there’s chaos coming down below. Here’s the current state of affairs:
CHICAGO CUBS (32-25)
- 2.5 games up in division.
- Divisional magic number is 2 (over Cardinals).
- Play White Sox for 3 games… and they will definitely mean something to the Southsiders.
- IN SHORT:Â this division title is not settled yet.
CARDINALS (28-26)
- 2.5 games behind Cubs.
- Play Milwaukee (4 games).
- Win division if they go 3-1 and Cubs are swept or lose twice.
- Win division if they go 2-2 and Cubs are swept.
- In both of those last 2 scenarios, St. Louis wins any tie-breaker.
PREDICTION: One of these teams becomes the #3 seed; the other the #5 seed. It will be close.
The Others
REDS (29-28)
- Still have chance to tie Cubs, but would lose tie-breaker.
- Play Minnesota for 3 meaningful games.
- In a tie with St. Louis, tie-breaker is still in play (Reds 21-19; Cards currently 20-16 in division)
- 1 win and they’re likely in the playoffs.
MARLINS (29-28)
- Chance to gain any of seeds 5, 6, 7, or 8… or elimination.
- Play in New York vs. Yankees for 3 games; Yankees battling a bit for seeding.
- Probably need at least 1 win to get in.
GIANTS (28-28)
- Chance to gain any of seeds 5, 6, 7, or 8… or elimination.
- Play Padres for 4 games; San Diego is locked in as #4 seed.
- Need 2 wins to get to 30-30 and likely promised land.
PHILLIES (28-29)
- Probably need 2 wins and some help
- Play Tampa Bay for 3 games; Rays nearly have #1 seed locked up, so they could cruise a bit.
- Philly is badly banged up right now, though.
BREWERS (27-29)
- Only real chance is to beat the Cardinals in 3 of their last 4 games. Hard to see that happen (dropped the first game of the 5 game set already).
CHAOS SCENARIO:
- Reds win once more
- Marlins win once more
- Giants split with Padres
- Phillies win 2 of 3
- Brewers win 3 of last 4 (forcing the Cardinals to lose 3 times)
- In this event, all six teams finish with a .500 record and everybody becomes intimately familiar with their intra-divisional records.
In truth, this is not out of the question, given the opponents involved! Right now, I would predict that the Reds, Marlins, and Giants all end up at .500 — becoming the 6th/7th/8th seeds in some order.
Best guess right now? The Atlanta Braves end up with the Marlins or Giants in next week’s opening round.