Tie-breaker scenarios for the Atlanta Braves vs. the Marlins

As was the case with the Cubs, the Atlanta Braves tie-breaker with Miami requires some explanation

We could make this very simple:  if the Atlanta Braves (32-22) beat the Miami Marlins (28-26) once more, this whole tie-breaker thing is essentially over and done with.  But there’s still that scrappy Marlins team that has a say in the matter.

We talked about this yesterday:  the 2020 MLB tie-breaker rules are a bit different, so let’s review:

• 1st level:  head-to-head matchups.  In this case, that does matter since Miami and Atlanta actually play one another.  How novel.
• 2nd:  best intra-divisional record overall
• 3rd:  intra-divisional record for the past 20 games.
• 4th and beyond:  keep adding an intra-divisional game until there’s a difference

Right now, the Braves lead seems safe:  they are up by 4 games with just 6 to play.  That’s normally good enough.  However, the first 3 of these games are head-to-head with Miami, and that makes a difference.

After this mid-week series, there’s a decided advantage leaning to the Braves since they finish with Boston at home while Miami travels to Yankee stadium.

But this is 2020 and this is baseball, so if you’re placing bets on such things… like the dude who lost $35,000 betting on the Falcons when they had a 15 point lead… well, just don’t do that!

To the Breakdown

It’s these next 3 games that matter and they matter a lot to the Marlins.  Let’s go through the tie-breaker steps:

• 1st:  The Braves lead the season series 4-3.
  • 2 more Atlanta wins vs. Miami and it’s academic:  they win the season series and the division.
  • 1 more Atlanta win vs. Miami and the teams end up with a 5-5 season series split.  We would then proceed to step 2…
• 2nd:  Intra-divisional records.
  • Today:  Atlanta’s record is 22-15; Miami’s is 20-17.
  • 1 more Atlanta win and the Braves clinch that tie-breaker thanks to a 23-17 record vs. 22-18 for Miami.
  • Atlanta would also be in the position of having an overall record that Miami could only tie (at best).  So game over and the Braves would own the division.

  Things only get squirrelly if the Marlins sweep the remaining 3 games in this series as things flip:  the Marlins would still be 1 game behind in the standings, but they would own all of the tie-breaker scenarios if they happened to gain one more game over the weekend.

  So here’s the bottom line:

  • If Atlanta beats the Marlins once more in the next 3 games, then the division is clinched.  That’s effectively a “conditional” magic number of 2.
  • If the Braves fail to beat the Marlins any more this week, then the Fish have a chance, but they still have beat the Yankees for more games than the Braves beat the Red Sox.  That’s the “magic number of 3” scenario.

  UPDATE:  rather than do a whole ‘nother Phillies post, I’ll do that here real quick:

  • Philly is 5 back with 6 to play, and thus need a miracle.
  • Philly and Atlanta split their season series at 5-5.
  • The magic number stands at 2 with the Phillies.
  • In the event of a tie, their divisional record would have to be either 23-17 or 22-16.  Atlanta’s would be the same:  one of those 2 results.
  • If we got that far and still have a tie, then the Phils might eke out the tie-breaker depending on the results of the games between now and Thursday.

  Let’s just hope we don’t get there!

  The advantage still lies heavily with Atlanta:  now they need to go out and finish them off.