Austin Riley has had his ups and downs since arriving in Atlanta last May, but who is the real Austin Riley?
Former top prospect Austin Riley has been frustrating at times with the Atlanta Braves. However, he occasionally flashes glimpses that suggests he could become an All-Star caliber player.
Riley was scorching hot upon his arrival in Atlanta last May. From May 15th through June 30th, Riley hit .273/.326/.582 with 14 HRs, 34 Runs, and 37 RBIs in 178 plate appearances. This came with a .371 wOBA and a 128 wrc+.
However, he had a 4.5% walk rate and a 32.6%(!) strikeout rate. This was a red flag that suggested Riley could run into a wall eventually.
That’s exactly what happened because teams figured out he could not hit a breaking ball and Austin Riley struggled. From July 1st to the end of the season, Riley slashed .156/.210/.303 with 4 HRs, 9 runs, and 12 RBIs over 119 plate appearances. His wOBA fell to .210 and wrc+ fell to 23.
If you add this season into the statistics from last July on, he is hitting .176/.230/.337 with 8 total HRs, 18 runs, and 25 RBIs over 204 plate appearances. His wOBA is .238 and wrc+ is 42.
Needless to say, it has not been a fun year for Austin Riley at the plate. However, the kid was a former top prospect and has less than 400 plate appearances for his career.
So what could Austin Riley become? The popular comparison as of late has been to Troy Glaus.
Troy Glaus has a career line of .254/.358/.489 .365, wOBA, 120 wrc+, and a career fWAR of 34.3. Glaus had a 162 game average of 34 HRs, 94 Runs, and 100 RBIs.
If Riley can become that type of player for the Atlanta Braves, you have to be thrilled as a Braves fan. Riley becoming the 2nd coming off Troy Glaus defenitely lengthens the Braves lineup.
However, let me compare Austin Riley to one more major leaguer, Todd Frazier. I haven’t seen many comparisons between the two, but if one looks at Frazier’s career numbers, it makes sense.
Todd Frazier has a career line .243/.321/.449 and a 109 wrc+. During his prime, he hit around 30 home runs, drove in 80-90 RBIs and scored around 80 runs while averaging anywhere from 3-4 WAR.
Austin Riley replicating Todd Frazier’s career at the plate would be great for the Braves. It would be a phenomenal boost to the lineup for Austin Riley to be hitting 25-30 home runs and hitting around .250 while batting anywhere from 6th-9th.
If he gets to Troy Glaus’ career numbers, and becomes an All-Star, it only strengthens the lineup even more. If Riley turns into Todd Frazier at the plate, well, the Braves gets a solid hitter towards the back end of the lineup for the next several years.
At the ripe young age of 23, Riley still has a ton of potential to develop into an All-Star caliber player or even just a solid everyday player. It’s important to remember that players don’t always reach their full potential immediately and often need a few years to figure it all out.
Thing is, Riley needs to figure out to hit to reach that potential of turning into Todd Frazier, Troy Glaus, or whomever else we want to compare him to. Thankfully, there’s a small glimmer of hope that Riley may be turning it around.
Over his last 6 games, he’s slashing .318/.375/.500 with a .376 wOBA and a 136 wrc+. These numbers would be slightly better if it wasn’t for Victor Robles and this amazing catch to rob Riley of a homer.
It’s a small sample size (24 plate appearances) but it’s encouraging considering where Riley has been over the last year plus. Riley is 23 years old, a former top prospect, and has less than 400 plate appearances in the majors, he is far from a finished product.
Austin Riley is an intriguing player to watch for the Braves. The talent is obviously there, but he has struggled to consistently put it together.
Luckily, when everyone is healthy, the Braves lineup is deep enough that they don’t need Riley to be a superstar right now. They can hit him near the bottom of the order and hope he figures it out and whatever you get from him is a bonus for the team.
Who knows what the future holds for Austin Riley? Maybe he becomes a 3-4 WAR player who makes the occasional All-Star game and provides solid value from the middle of the lineup. Maybe he continues to struggle and he has to figure it out for another team.
It’s the unfortunate side of baseball that not every prospect works out. Hopefully, Austin Riley turns into a valuable player that can play 3rd base (or DH) for the Atlanta Braves for the next several years.