Atlanta Braves: Why Ronald Acuna Jr. Can Win Gold Glove in 2020
Here’s why I think Acuna can win the 2020 Gold Glove in RF with the Atlanta Braves. We break down his stats and the competition standing in the way.
The Atlanta Braves will open the season with former Gold Glove winners in CF and LF (assuming Ozuna starts there instead of DH on Opening Day). Here’s why I think Ronald Acuna Jr. will bring home the Gold in 2020.
I will use statistics in this article like defensive runs saved (DRS) or you might see Rdrs, which simply means it’s pulled from Baseball-Reference. Our friends at Baseball-Reference have a way of averaging defensive runs per 1,200 innings and they call that stat Rdrs/year. So, I try to explain the rest as I go.
If you ever get lost, check out Fangraphs’ glossary page. They help to simplify these terms so that even I can understand them. Everything is difficult until you learn how to do it, right? They do a great job of breaking it all down.
**Disclaimer: This article was written before the announcement of the Yasiel Puig signing.
Atlanta Braves – Gold Glove Competition – Bryce Harper, PHI
According to Fangraphs, Bryce Harper earned the most defensive runs saved in the National League from RF with 10. He was one of only three players to earn double-digit DRS from RF. Keep in mind, that doesn’t mean he saved 10 runs with his defense. It means, according to the calculations they use to figure DRS, Harper saved 10 more runs than the average player in RF.
Not only did Harper show well in DRS but he finished first among right fielders in range runs (RngR). Range runs is basically a measurement of how far above or below average a player is at getting to balls. It’s his range compared to average.
Atlanta Braves – Gold Glove Competition – Jason Heyward, CHC
Our old friend had a resurgent season with the bat, but we all know how magical Heyward can be with the mitt. In a recent article gushing over how wonderful Ender Inciarte had been between 2014-2018, I provided a list of only three outfielders who had more defensive runs saved over that time than Ender’s 86. The guy just ahead of him? Jason Heyward and his 92 DRS.
While Heyward finished with just two total defensive runs saved in the outfield last season, he spent half of his time in centerfield where he posted -4 DRS. Obviously he was happier at home in right field. If you aren’t familiar with Rdrs/yr, it is simple. Baseball-Reference takes the number of defensive runs the player saved and averages it out over what they consider a year, which is 1,200 innings.
Heyward’s rDRS/year showed he was on pace for 12 DRS in RF last season, which is consistent with his annual average of 15 DRS per season over 10 years. Heyward showed excellent range, finishing fourth in RngR.
Mookie Betts is the newcomer this season. Betts will take over rightfield duties in L.A. and move the National League’s reigning Gold Glove winner (Cody Bellinger) over to center. Mookie Betts’ entry into the National League this season throws a wrench into some of the stats we were just covering. Last season with Boston he posted a RngR of 6.0, which would have tied him with Bryce Harper for best in the N.L.
Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is sort of a compilation of range runs, arm rating (runs saved with good throws, both smart and powerful), and a few other factors. Although it sounds very different, it’s quite similar to defensive runs saved with a slightly varied formula.
UZR/150 is simply an average UZR over 150 games.
Last season Betts posted a UZR/150 of 15.6, which would have been good for third in the N.L. (min 190 innings) and was slightly better than teammate Cody Bellinger’s 15.3.
Betts has won four Gold Gloves in a row in the American League and is an early favorite for the 2020 Gold Glove Award in right field.
Atlanta Braves – Can Ronald Acuna Jr. Win a Gold Glove?
When you think of Acuna’s defense, you might think of spectacular catches, great speed, and hat popping catches… Yes, “hat popping,” it’s a step beyond eye-popping. After experiencing a feat so athletically spectacular, the hairs on the back of your neck stand straight up with such force and energy that they will fling the fedora off of your head and potentially out of the stadium, provided it is an open-air facility.
For some of us, those occasional sloppy routes or optically lazy catches tend to linger longer than they should. The reality is in the statistics.
The game comes easy to Acuna and sometimes that can have the appearance of someone who isn’t trying. You never doubted David Eckstein’s effort when he would crow hop to get a throw from shortstop to first base, but not everyone has to do that.
Why does Acuna have the goods for a Gold Glove? Where do I start (rubbing hands together like I’m trying to stay warm on cold night camping by a fire but also trying to convey the message that I’m about to begin eagerly explaining.)
Acuna was on pace for 33 defensive runs saved (RF) last season over 1,200 innings. That would have been far and away the absolute best in the National League. That’s 13 more than Bellinger ended up with.
In late July of last season, Markakis went down with an injury and the Braves moved Acuna over to right. The results were stunning.
Here’s what manager Brian Snitker told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
“I really like him there,” manager Brian Snitker said. “Just watching him out there playing, that looks like the spot he needs to be. I think we take advantage of his skillset better there.
Acuna was a natural fit in right field. His arm was deadly.
A Ronnie rocket. pic.twitter.com/hQ8NtvTsc8
— MLB (@MLB) August 6, 2019
Have you ever stood by the fence of a professional baseball field and tried to throw someone out at second? I actually have done that. I made David Eckstein look like Hollywood Hogan.
That throw looked like a catcher throwing a runner out from home plate. Beautiful. Not only is he powerful, but he’s also a sharpshooter.
While his outfielder jump rating at Baseball Savant is in the 56th percentile, his sprint speed is among the best in the league. He’s still very young and being in CF can shine a spotlight on any deficiencies in his game.
He is another year older and another year wiser. Here’s what the stats said about his performance in right field last season.
Remember UZR/150 and how Mookie Betts’ 15.6 would have been good for third in the NL? Number two on that list was San Diego Padres’ spectacular right fielder Hunter Renfroe who is now in the American League with the Tampa Bay Rays. The man at the top of the list in UZR/150 in right field was none other than Ronald Acuna Jr. with 23.3.
Atlanta Braves – Will Ronald Acuna Jr. Win a Gold Glove?
Ender Inciarte needs to stay healthy in CF. Should he go down to an injury, it’s more likely that Acuna ends up back in CF during Inciarte’s absence. Having Ender and Acuna covering 67% (or more) of the outfield bodes well for all Braves pitchers.
We all know about the Braves two stud outfield prospects, but it’s unlikely that they will open the season in contention for playing time. Despite the departure of Nick Markakis, the Braves still have several quality options in the outfield.
The addition of the DH this season will provide the Braves with an opportunity to give regular defenders a rest without sacrificing defensively.
The Braves have the look of an elite defensive outfield with super-athlete Austin Riley (71st percentile in sprint speed), Adam Duvall (45 career defensive runs saved in LF), and Marcell Ozuna (26 defensive runs saved at corner outfield positions), all available to provide one another with rest days from the DH slot.
If Acuna can hone in the route running and continue to progress in RF over last season, he could add his first Gold Glove to his trophy case.
At the worst, he should still establish himself as one of the game’s top defensive right fielders. There’s not much weakness in this kid’s game. He has the makings of a perennial MVP candidate.
The Braves’ defense is going to be fun to watch this year.
Next. 3 players with opportunities after Markakis opt-out. dark
Do you think Acuna can beat out Mookie Betts for the Gold Glove?