PECOTA released it’s updated standings to reflect a 60-game season and the Atlanta Braves were not picked to repeat as NL East champs.
You would think winning back-to-back division titles and having some of the best young talent in the league would earn some respect for the Atlanta Braves.
But apparently that’s not the case for the algorithm that spit out the projected win totals for the upcoming 2020 season.
The PECOTA standings that were recently released have the Braves finishing third in the NL East behind the Washington Nationals and New York Mets.
I can understand putting them behind the defending World Series champions, but I’m not sure what makes the Mets a higher favorite to win the division and make the playoffs.
They have the Braves with just a .500 record in the 60-game season going 30-30 with a 32.2 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Washington is projected to win the division with 32.8 wins and the Mets are right behind them at 32.3 projected wins.
The Mets would be the first NL Wild Card team with the Chicago Cubs getting the second spot with 31.6 projected wins.
If the postseason ends up getting expanded to eight teams in each league then the Braves would qualify as the seven seed.
Obviously these projections are meaningless and the Braves are used to being overlooked before the season as no one picked them to win the division the last two years.
But this is interesting in showing us just how tight these races will be and how many wins it might take to make the postseason.
With how difficult the schedule is for eastcoast teams, I could see 32 wins being enough to take the division crown.
I think it will likely be closer to 34 wins, but either way, it will likely take 31-34 wins for the Braves to make the postseason in 2020.
And with it just being a 60-game season, there will be a lot of National League teams still in contention until the very end.
I think we’re in for a really fun season and we know the Braves are going to be in the mix all the way through.