We take a quick look at what Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. could look like in a shortened season.
As you all know, sports have been absent from all of our lives due to the global shutdown caused by COVID-19. The Atlanta Braves are a big part of my life and sports following, so I’ve been very sad to not have them playing these last few months.
With the MLB finally announcing a season start date (July 1st for Spring Training, July 23rd for the first game between the Nationals and Yankees) it’s about time to start getting excited about the season.
Normally with these projections pieces, it’s easy to lean on past seasons to predict stat lines.
Obviously, it’s sort of difficult for me to do that here. I’ll still be using past figures to guide me, but my projections will have to be scaled down due to the shrinking size of the season to 60 games.
Ronald Acuña Jr is an incredible, unique talent. It is a massive shame that a virus robbed us of the chance to see another full season of him.
Quick Recap
Ronald Acuña Jr’s 2019 season was one for the ages. He approached a 40/40 season, and although he didn’t quite make that lofty goal he still was able to achieve 40 home runs and 30 steals.
Unlike his rookie season with the Braves, he avoided major injury like the knee issue he suffered in a summer game versus the Red Sox back in 2018.
Seeing his full potential at play was exhilarating. At times in the playoffs, it seemed like he was carrying the offense on his back by himself (with some clutch help from Adam Duvall and Dansby Swanson).
His electrifying play excited the majority of the fan base (people who hate fun notwithstanding), and I was incredibly excited for his second full season. I had hopes that he could make 40/40 or maybe even higher, but of course the shortened season will likely not allow this.
What can we expect?
The players will likely be a little more rusty than normal, due to the strange starting time for the season. Even with about three weeks of time for spring training, this season is unprecedented.
That said, Acuña isn’t exactly the average player. With three weeks of extended spring training under his belt, I expect him to be in midseason form.
Keep in mind that for my predictions, I am going to factor in that this season is about 37% of the length of the usual 162 game affair.
I was going to predict that Acuña would be able to reach the 45 home run plateau in the 2020 season since he’s only getting stronger as he grows into his body.
Given his 41 home run mark last year, I think that’s a reasonable uptick in production. Based on this, I think he could hit around 16-20 home runs in the shortened season.
I think that Acuña will be more aggressive on the basepaths this year. In the shortened season, I think that will translate to 13-17 steals.
Other counting stats are a bit more nebulous and more dependant on teammates to either get on base or drive Acuña in.
That said, I think that he could get about 44-48 runs even in the shortened season and 35-40 RBI is certainly a reasonable number to expect out of him as well from the leadoff spot.
I expect Acuña to have a modest OPS increase since I expect him to improve this season and that OPS is an average, not a counting stat.
I expect his average to remain around the same for now, but who knows, he could prove me wrong. I predict his slash line will be .280/.375/.910.
With Marcell Ozuna being added to the outfield in the season, Ender Inciarte will likely be manning center field to cover for Ozuna’s defensive deficiencies. That means that Acuña will likely spend the bulk of the season in right field.
He performed extremely well in right last year, but his performance in center could have used some work. Since he will likely not be there, his defensive ratings will likely be the highest they’ve ever been this season.
https://twitter.com/FOXSportsBraves/status/1126322753840095232
Last but not least, here’s a beautiful moonshot home run for you to admire. Here’s to hoping for more of this in the coming months for Acuña and the Braves!