Assuming we see an 82-game season let’s predict the Atlanta Braves 2020 home run leaders.
Earlier this year, Tomahawk Take predicted the Atlanta Braves 2020 starting lineup. Using those predictions, I exported relevant player data from Baseball-Reference.com and created a spreadsheet to filter the information.
I used the following criteria to make a more informed prediction for who will lead the Atlanta Braves in home runs this year: (1) Players had to have played a minimum of 82 games in the major leagues in 2019, and (2) players had to have a minimum of 200 at-bats in the major leagues in 2019.
I made three exceptions for the purposes of this prediction. The first was including Austin Riley, who played 80 total games with the Atlanta Braves in 2019. Since he will play a more important role for the Braves in 2020, after the departure of Josh Donaldson and the addition of the designated hitter (DH) to the national league, I figured it would be OK to grant him this exception.
The second exception was including Adam Duvall. Duvall only played 41 games for the big league club, but had a stellar 2019 season with the Brave’ AAA club in Gwinnett, hitting 32 HRs and finishing with an OPS of .965. He should see some time as a starter in right or left field when regular starters get a day off, and will also represent a great option for the DH spot.
The final exception was including Ender Inciarte. Inciarte is a stellar center fielder and should make a return to the starting lineup after an injury-plagued 2019 season. For the purposes of this prediction I will use Inciarte’s 2018 stats to make a more informed prediction.
After filtering out all members of the 2020 roster that did not meet the criteria, I was left with the following 12 players: Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis, Travis d’Arnaud, Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Tyler Flowers, Ender Inciarte and Johan Camargo.
The Atlanta Braves Formula
The stats that I care about for these predictions are games played by each player (2019), at bats (AB), and Home Runs (HR).
The first step was figuring out how many at bats players were averaging per games where they made an appearance. This will allow us to forecast how many at bats players will have during a shortened (82 game) season.
At bats per game = At bats divided by games played or ABpG = AB/G
Next we take how many at bats individual players had during the 2019 season and divide that number by how many home runs they hit in 2019. This will show us the ratio of at bats per home run.
At bats per home run = At bats divided by home runs or ABpHR = AB/HR
With these two figures we can make a more informed guess as compared to throwing darts at a wall full of numbers.
No surprise – Ronald Acuna Jr. is our winner with a projected home run total of 21 home runs in 2020. Acuna played in 156 games in 2019 and had 626 at bats for an average of 4 at bats per game. He finished the 2019 season with 41 home runs for an at bat per home run ratio of 15.3.
Using these 2019 totals we can estimate that Acuna will have 328 at bats in 2020 (4 AB x 82 games = 328 AB). Taking Acuna’s 328 at bats and dividing that total by Acuna’s at bat per home run ratio of 15.3 we end up with 21 home runs in 2020.
Freddie Freeman and Adam Duvall tie for second place with 20 home runs each.
Freeman averaged a home run every 15.71 at bats in 2019. That was six percentage points better than his career ratio of at bats per home run of 21.82. Braves fans hope this trend continues in Freeman’s 11th year in the big leagues.
Adam Duvall had an at bat per home run ratio of 11.5 during his time in AAA in 2019. His 41 games in the big leagues saw Duvall hit a home run every 12 at bats! There are many in Atlanta rooting hard for Duvall to catch fire in 2020 and beyond.
Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna tied for third with 18 home runs each.
Riley should get his fair share of at bats in 2020 as the starting third baseman, or as the designated hitter. And Riley was raking in 2020 spring training! Yes, it was only 12 games, but Riley already had two home runs and an OPS of 1.080.
Braves fans will remember Marcell Ozuna from the 2019 National League Divisional Series; and the memories are not so sweet. Ozuna killed Braves pitching and finished the NLDS with two home runs, a .429 batting average, and an OPS of 1.335! Dear Mr. Ozuna, please bring those numbers to Atlanta.
The remainder of Braves players that we anticipate to see in 2020 finish with the following estimated home run totals:
- Travis d’Arnaud – 14 HR
- Ozzie Albies – 12 HR
- Dansby Swanson – 11 HR
- Tyler Flowers – 11 HR
- Nick Markakis – 6 HR
- Johan Camargo – 6 HR
- Ender Inciarte – 5 HR
The Braves scored 855 runs in 2019. They have the personnel to put runs on the board and do so in the most exciting fashion in the sport – home runs.