The best Atlanta Braves RHP: so how do you value pitching?

Braves Performance (part 1/WAA)

Here, we need to be a bit careful… and it’s the first point where “your mileage may vary”. I have chosen baseball-reference’s Wins Above Average for this. Not WAR, but hopefully a better indication of how much better a pitcher was performing beyond his peers’ results.

HUDSON – 11.7 (on this chart, he’s actually the tenth-ranked Braves RHP!)
MADDUX – 46.5
NICHOLS – 69.0
NIEKRO – 50.0
SMOLTZ – 39.1

Those between Smoltz and Hudson: John Clarkson (25.2), Vic Willis (24.4), Tommy Bond (24.1), Jim Whitney (15.4), and Charlie Buffington (11.9).

Had I used WAR, the results would still have Nichols on top (107.4) and Niekro 2nd, but flipping Smoltz and Maddux. Hudson drops to 11th among Braves RH hurlers as Lew Burdette jumps into the 9th spot.

Points: Niekro and Nichols 8, Smoltz 7, Maddux 5, Hudson 1.

BRAVES PERFORMANCE (part 2/ERA+)

Before looking, it is recognized that this metric might end up being too similar to WAA, though it is included since the value obtained is intended to grade a pitcher independent of ballpark conditions (how accurate that might be for Nichols is anyone’s guess, though).

HUDSON – 115 (9th among Braves RHP with 1000+ innings)
MADDUX – 163
NICHOLS – 143
NIEKRO – 119
SMOLTZ -127

Points: Nichols 12, Niekro and Maddux and Smoltz 10, Hudson 3

BRAVES WINS PLUS SAVES

The latter value is obviously in here because of Smoltz, though I am going to modify that just a bit: the numbers you’ll see here will be Wins + (0.333 * Saves)… counting a save as 1/3rd of the value of a Win (results rounded).

Feel free to adjust your own calculators if you don’t like that 0.333 figure, but that’s where we’ll start here:

HUDSON – 113 (again, all of these numbers are measure while a Brave)
MADDUX – 194
NICHOLS – 330 + (0.333)*15 ==> 335
NIEKRO – 268 + (0.333)*29 ==> 278
SMOLTZ – 210 + (0.333)*154 ==> 261

Points: Nichols 17, Niekro 14, Smoltz 13, Maddux 12, Huddy 4.

At this point, I want to make clear that while Tim Hudson was clearly a stalwart of the Atlanta Braves rotation for nearly a decade and his contributions to the success of the club were outstanding, he’s simply being overwhelmed by the rare company he’s in here.

Braves Bonus Points

How much further should we go here? There’s a lot of reasons to include or ‘disinclude’ other stats that could be in play:

• Strikeouts – do you have to be a strikeout specialist to be effective? Nichols wasn’t – and in his era, batters protected the plate better. So he was effective despite extra contact.
• Shutouts – that became passe as the age of the reliever came into vogue.
• WHIP – which is more important? Keeping runners off base or keeping them off home plate? One does lead to the other and all of these pitchers were in the Top 14 for the Braves RHP, all-time (Maddux 1st, Nichols 11th, Huddy 14th).
• Innings? Games? Another longevity stat, and we used years already. Niekro and Nichols win these easily.
• Hall of Fame? Well, all of them — save Hudson — are there already. It’s hard to go by other awards since Nichols pitched before they were created.
• But the modern era is more difficult! Maybe, but Nichols made up for that by pitching all the time. He routinely threw 40+ starts a season and put up 5 straight years of 400+ innings. He had to be throwing tired all Summer.

I will award bonus points as follows:

HUDSON – 1 for being the best pitcher on the staff in his era
MADDUX – 2 for being the acknowledged wizard of pitching command, perhaps the best ever in the game other than Satchel Paige.
NICHOLS – 1 for his performance despite an incredible workload. He got to 300 wins early during his 11th season in the league!
NIEKRO – 2 for continuing to pitch and pitch and pitch with that knuckleball for innings and games and years. What if there had been some better Braves teams around him during those times.
SMOLTZ – nothing extra. It feels like the above numbers capture him well enough, and it’s his own driving competitiveness that got him to that point.

Final Points:

• Nichols 18
• Niekro 16
• Maddux 14
• Smoltz 13
• Hudson 5

So while Bowman may think that Maddux is the slam-dunk best righty ever for the Atlanta Braves over their long history, the belief here is that he’s hurt significantly by the longevity stat.

He could very well have been one of the best RHP’s ever in the game, but this reckoning puts Kid Nichols on top when limiting the discussion to Braves players alone. Niekro’s impressive resume — in total — places him second.

What’s your Tomahawk Take on this?