Atlanta Braves: Top 5 busts as former no. 1 prospects
We take a gander at the top five Atlanta Braves’ former-number one prospects who did not live up to the hype over the last 30 years.
The Baseball Cube has a list of the Atlanta Braves‘ top prospects for each year since 1983, according to Baseball America. I used it as a resource in compiling this list.
What do you think of when you hear the phrase “number one prospect?” If you are like most baseball fans then you think 10 to 15 years of above-average play with a few all-stars sprinkled in hither and thither. Unfortunately, that is not always the way things work out.
I’m not ignorant enough to ever look at a player that earned the title of being an organization’s top prospect as a “bad” player. Please understand that I’m only using career WAR and other stats to essentially pinpoint the five biggest busts in Braves’ prospects history.
I respect every one of these men for reaching the heights they were able to reach in their careers and have nothing but appreciation for the talent and work ethic it takes to get to the majors, let alone be regarded as the best prospect in a system.
That being said, there are usually lofty expectations for players that earn the title of top prospect and they can’t all work out the way we want them to. So, without further adieu and with all due respect, let’s take a look at the biggest prospect busts since 1984.
I’d like to start with an honorable mention. Lucas Sims was the top prospect of a weak 2014 group. It was a year in which Baseball America estimated the Braves’ best future major leaguer was only the 57th best in baseball. Sims is currently with the Reds and has only logged 116 major-league innings. Considering that he is only 26-years-old, I refrain from adding him to the list, just in case something crazy happens and he becomes a legend of the game.
. . . Jarrod Saltalamacchia. 5. player. 17
5.9 rWAR (12 seasons)
“Salty” reigned as the Braves’ top prospect for two-consecutive years in 2006 and 2007 according to Baseball Prospectus. Andy Marte, who once dominated the rankings and was considered one of the best prospects in all of baseball, had been traded. Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur had already established themselves as major leaguers. Jarrod Saltalamacchia was basically the best they had left.
In 2007 he was rated as Baseball America’s 36th best overall prospect. Brian McCann was blocking the plate at Turner Field from both opposing runners and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. His name value allowed the Braves to move him as one of the key pieces in the trade that acquired superstar slugger Mark Texiera from the Rangers.
Saltalamacchia would go on to play in 12 major-league seasons and won a World Championship with the Red Sox in 2013. Overall, it was a very good career for him, but he didn’t quite live up the expectations that can follow a player as a top prospect.
Best Season
His best season came in 2013 with the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. Salty played in 121 games and smashed a career-high 40 doubles to go with 14 homers. He also set career highs in RBI (65), SB (4), batting average (.273), OPS (.804), and total bases (198).
And he got a ring.
Wilson Betemit. 4. player. 17. . .
Wilson Betemit 2.8 rWAR (11 seasons)
Wilson Betemit was rated as high as the eighth-best prospect in all of the land by Baseball America in 2002. Baseball Prospectus rated him as the fifth-best player. He was destined for greatness. Betemit spent two seasons atop Baseball America’s list as the Braves top prospect.
He was originally signed by the Braves illegally at the age of just 14-years-old. The Braves were penalized but he began playing professional ball as a young teen. After two seasons he began to shine at the unripened age of 17 in 1999. He slashed .320/.383/.463 in Danville.
The following season he was promoted to Low-A and continued his ascent to the major leagues. Betemit would finally exceed his rookie eligibility in 2005. He was one of 17 rookies to appear on the Braves roster that year. He excelled in his first full season with a .305 average in 115 games.
Betemit had a solid 11-year career in the major leagues but never quite lived up to the hype as one of the best prospects, not only in the Braves organization but the game of baseball. He finished with a career slash of .267/.332/.442 and a 104 OPS+. He was slightly above replacement level and made a nice career for himself. While he wasn’t the next big thing, we certainly appreciate his contributions at the end of the streak of 14 division titles.
Best of Betemit
His best season came with the 2010 Kansas City Royals when he slashed .297/.378/.511 with 13 homers and 20 doubles in just 276 at-bats. He finished with an OPS+ of 141 that season.
17. . . . Jose Peraza. 3. player
Jose Peraza 1.5 rWAR (5 seasons)
Jose Peraza was the top prospect of the 2015 season within the Braves organization. Meanwhile, Baseball America only had him ranked 54th overall.
Similar to Saltalamacchia’s position, he was left from a batch of great youngsters that had established themselves in the big leagues. Players like Andrelton Simmons, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Julio Teheran had all become key factors in the youth movement that led to the Braves 96-win 2013 season.
Peraza was still a fairly highly regarded prospect and plenty of hope remained around our new number one minor leaguer. Following the disappointing 2014 season, the Braves went into re-build mode and shipped Peraza to the Dodgers as a part of a package that returned Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez, and Zachary Bird.
Personally, I hate that trade the most because we also lost Alex Wood and Luis Avilan. I loved those two lefties. That notion is enough to tell you how well Peraza lived up to the hype of a number one prospect.
Peraza was an electric base stealer, swiping 60+ bags in both 2013 and 2014 in the minor leagues. He was a contact hitter who could run like the wind and those skills have translated to a five-year career (and counting) of just above replacement-level production.
The most bases he’s ever swiped at the big-league level is 23. He accomplished the feat in 2017 and 2018. It isn’t due to a lack of opportunity as he played in 143 games in 2017 and 157 games in 2018. Peraza has a career OPS+ of 80 and is currently under contract with the Boston Red Sox.
Best Season
His highest OPS+ was in 2016 when he posted a 102 in just 72 games. However, in 2018 he posted a 98 OPS+ and played in 157 games for the Reds. In 632 at-bats he posted career-highs in doubles (31), homers (14), RBI (58), and steals. Peraza slashed .288/.326/.416 in 2018.
17. . . . Jordan Schafer. 2. player
Jordan Schafer -2.2 rWAR (6 seasons)
I hate seeing Jordan Schafer on this list. I always rooted for the guy and I was actually quite shocked to see how much the metrics didn’t like him. As much as I rooted for him, I can’t argue with the numbers. Prior to the 2008 season, Schafer registered as the 17th best prospect in the game by Baseball Prospectus.
Heading into 2009, Schafer had not yet even played above Double-A when the Braves named him the Opening Day starter in centerfield. In his very first at-bat, he blasted a homer to whet everyone’s appetite. He would go on to his just 11 more in his career. The magic did not continue as Schafer finished his rookie season with a .204 average in 167 at-bats. His OPS+ sat at just 61 prior to being optioned to Gwinnett.
Schafer wouldn’t see a major league field again until late-May of 2011. Later that July he was traded to the Astros as part of the Michael Bourn deal. Ultimately Schafer was a part-time player over parts of six seasons for Minnesota, Houston, and two stints with the Braves. He finished below replacement level with -2.2 rWAR on his career. He also finished with -37 defensive runs saved in center field, although he was above average in the corner spots.
Best Season
His most productive season according to OPS+ was in 2013 when he posted an 88 for the Braves in his second term with the team. Schafer appeared in 94 games and stole 22 bases while setting a career-high in on-base percentage with a .331 clip.
17. . . . Andy Marte. 1. player
Andy Marte -1.0 rWAR (7 seasons)
Andy Marte was a lock to be a major-league stud. He was rated as the third overall prospect by Baseball Prospectus in 2004 and was crowned the number one prospect the following year. It’s that long fall from such a lofty perch that marks him as our number 1 bust among all the numbers 1’s.
Marte led a group of four Braves’ prospects in Baseball Prospectus’ top 50 of 2005. Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur had pathways to playing time, but Marte played third base.
The Braves moved the talented youngster to the Red Sox for Edgar Renteria. The Red sox flipped Marte to the Indians in a seven-player exchange. The Indians believed they had their third basemen of the future. Marte was a sure bet.
Unfortunately for Marte, things never quite clicked at the big-league level. In parts of seven seasons, he finished with a .218/.276/.358 slash line. His OPS+ sits at a disappointing 69. He finished with 21 career homers in 307 major league games.
He did have a really nice moment in 2014. Marte hadn’t played in a major league game in four years but he never gave up. The Diamondbacks gave him a shot on July 31, 2014. In his first at-bat since 2010 Marte blasted a two-run shot to left field to give his team two-run lead.
Tragically, in 2017, Marte died in a car accident in the Dominican Republic, where he was playing winter league baseball. He may have never lived up to the hype that once followed him, but he never gave up on the game and was a ballplayer until the day he died.
Next. Podcast: Catching up with Chase d'Arnaud. dark
Best Season
In 2010, Marte played in 80 games for the Indians and slashed .229/.298/.382 with 5 HR, 7 2B, and an OPS+ of 89.