Atlanta Braves Right Field Position Preview: Ronald Acuna vs. NL East
This is our next installment in the 2020 edition of our annual series evaluating the Atlanta Braves’ position players against the rest of the National League East.
Today we preview how the Atlanta Braves stack up against the rest of the NL East in right field. I’m going to utilize Fangraphs’ WAR projections to organize this list.
The unsettling thing about this particular list is seeing two teams in the NL East (Phillies and Mets) ranked ahead of the Braves.
- Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Mets
- Atlanta Braves
- Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins
We start at the bottom.
Miami Marlins
If you are on the Fangraphs’ page linked above then you have to scroll all the way to the very bottom of the entire league to reach the Marlins’ projected depth chart.
They project Lewis Brinson to take the bulk of the playing time in right for the fish with a mixture of several other players, led by former Brave Matt Joyce.
Brinson should get the first crack as he brings the pedigree and the Marlins haven’t yet given up on him. Brinson was rated as a top-20 prospect by Baseball Prospectus for three consecutive seasons between 2016-2018.
To this point, the minor league success has not translated to the major leagues. Brinson has a career slash of .183/.238/.293 and has been worth -3.3 rWAR over parts of three seasons.
Should Brinson falter again, the Marlins have Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramirez as right-handed options in right field. Matt Joyce will serve as the left-handed bat and is slated to take over about three days a week.
Fangraphs projects the Marlins to finish with a 0.0 WAR with Brinson contributing a -0.5 and Matt Joyce providing 0.4 WAR.
If things don’t click for Brinson this year, it may be time to move on. For what it’s worth, Brinson was having a wonderful spring before the suspension of baseball activities. He currently has a .345/.355/.793 slash line with three homers, two doubles, a triple, while driving in five runs in 13 games.
Washington Nationals
Once you get past the Marlins, the quality of the right fielders in the NL East really shines. To find the Nationals you have to look all the way up to the number 11 spot on the list.
Adam Eaton has been a model of consistency in his career. Over eight seasons he has never hit more than the 15 he smoked last season. He has led the league in triples twice with 10 in 2014 and nine in 2016.
Eaton has slashed .285/.363/.417 over his career and while he has been worth -15 defensive runs saved in center field he has excelled in right field in his career with 23.
Eaton is not the flashiest player but he’s a very solid player. He was worth 1.5 rWAR last season and accumulated 19.3 in his eight-year career.
He sort of reminds me of Nick Markakis. A solid hitter with a good on-base percentage who doesn’t hit for elite power and tends to get overlooked more than he deserves.
A differentiator between Eaton and Markakis is doubles Eaton has never hit more than 29 doubles in a season, although he’s had three seasons with nine or more triples.
Eaton is projected to receive the majority of the reps in left with his primary backup being Michael Taylor. Fangraphs credits Eaton for his durability and projects him at 602 plate appearances with Taylor coming in at second with just 35 PAs.
The Nationals are projected to earn 2.4 wins above replacement from the right field position in 2020 with 2.3 of that credited to Adam Eaton.
New York Mets
The New York Mets are projected to finish with the fourth most productive right field in the league according to WAR projections on Fangraphs.
The main reason behind such a high projection is Michael Conforto. The former collegiate standout is a true slugger and boasts a career on-base percentage of .353, a full 100 points better than his career batting average.
While Conforto may never contend for a batting title with 308 strikeouts in the past two seasons, he has a career slugging percentage of .481. His on-base ability and extra-base power have provided Conforto with a 125 OPS+ for his career.
He has walked 84 times in each of the past two seasons and has hit 27, 28, and 33 homers in each of the past three seasons.
In 2019, he drove in 92 runs, scored 90 times, compiled 141 hits, 29 doubles, and stole seven bases. All of which were career highs for the 26-year-old.
Conforto is entering his age-27 season and is a trusted source of power and a well-above-average on-base percentage for the Mets. He has settled into the right-field position for the Mets where he owns a .990 career fielding percentage and averages three defensive runs saved per year.
Conforto is a one-time All-Star, earning his first mid-summer classic nod in 2017 at the age of 24. That season he set career highs in average (.279), OBP (.384), and SLG (.555).
Injuries limited Conforto to just 109 games that season. He has played in 153 and 151, respectively, the past two years. As good as he has been, the Mets hope to see him push the ceiling even higher in 2020. He’s a very solid player in right field.
Philadelphia Phillies
After completing his age-26 season, Bryce Harper has already accumulated 31.8 rWAR. One of the premier stars of the game, he’s racked up six All-Star Game appearances with his first coming at the age of 19 in 2012. Harper is a prodigious power hitter with seven seasons of 20+ homers and three seasons with more than 100 RBI.
Harper’s career slash over eight seasons sits at an incredible .276/.385/.512 and he already boasts 219 homers and 219 doubles. He’s stolen 90 bases with five seasons of double-digit steals in the books.
He led the National League in walks in 2018 with 130 free passes. He has surpassed the century mark in bases on balls three times with another 99 coming in 2019, his first season in Philadelphia.
Overall, Harper has posted 11 defensive runs saved in the outfield with three coming as a right fielder. In terms of DRS, he may not be Ender Inciarte, but he’s above average for his career.
According to the projected playing time on Fangraphs, Harper is slated to earn 658 PA in RF for the Phillies with Jay Bruce finishing second at just 28 opportunities. Harper is predicted to be worth 4.1 wins above replacement which boosts the Phillies’ right field position to the third highest in the Major Leagues.
Harper’s projected slash line is set at .259/.384/.533 for 2020. His ranking has him trailing only Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees and Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers in projected fWAR.
Atlanta Braves
As a Braves’ fan, it seems like a travesty that Acuna and the Braves are ranked behind both the Phillies and the Mets in projected WAR from the right-field spot. However, if you look at the projected playing time chart, they have accounted for the possibility that Ender Inciarte cedes a fair amount of playing time to Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2020.
As such, they have projected Acuna at 392 plate appearances in right field and Nick Markakis with 245. Both players have solid projections with Acuna slashing .284/.366/.531 and Markakis going for .279/.350/.412. The projection of 3.0 fWAR places the Braves third in the division and sixth in the league.
They also have Acuna projected for significant time in centerfield, which is fair. Should Inciarte hold down the spot in center this season, Acuna should give Bryce Harper and Michael Conforto a run for their money in 2020. If anything, he’d be the favorite to finish first out of the lot.
According to Baseball-Reference, Acuna posted a 5.7 rWAR compared to Harper’s 4.3 in 2019. When put into context, the ranking put forth by Fangraphs’ depth chart is not saying that Acuna is the third-best right fielder in the NL East, they are just taking into account his versatility and the likelihood that he spends some time in centerfield this year.
With the depth the Atlanta Braves have in the outfield this season, Inciarte is likely to be on a short leash, so it’s certainly feasible that Acuna finds himself roaming the middle of the grass in 2020.
Next. TT Podcast with ESPN's Kiley McDaniel. dark
The Braves are absolutely loaded in the outfield this season with Acuna, Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna, Nick Markakis, and Adam Duvall. They also have top prospects, Cristian Pache and Drew Waters awaiting the call in Gwinnett.