Atlanta Braves should offer Freddie Freeman an extension now
Extension fever is in the air and with this flurry of contractual activity, it might be time to go ahead and lock up the unofficial captain of the Atlanta Braves ship.
Would it not be nice to see Freddie Freeman get a contract to stay with the Atlanta Braves for the rest of his playing days? Maybe the time is nearly right to get that done this year?
The model may already be on the board as of Thursday: Christian Yelich‘s extension with the Brewers.
Yoan Moncada picked up an extension, too, but his is in a different category in terms of service time and age… never mind the different size of the checks.
Yelich is 28 years old, holds an MVP trophy and was close to getting a second one. He has a gold glove and three silver slugger bats as well.
Milwaukee had 2 more years of cheap control available to them, plus an option year: the paycheck numbers were $12.5 million, $14 million, and $15 million.
That’s pretty cheap for a guy at the top of his – and virtually everybody else’s – game.
So yes: Yelich was woefully underpaid an could have remained so for the next three seasons. However, both sides had an interest in this new deal.
Milwaukee wanted to retain the player – clearly. Yelich will effectively be the replacement for Ryan Braun, whose own deal finally expires after this up-coming season (there’s a chance that the $15 million mutual option gets picked up… but not a great chance).
Yelich, for his part, will see his big payday coming sooner than it might have before… and who knows what might have been the result in another 3 seasons had he gone to free agency at the age of 32?
So the sides have come together on a mutually beneficial package that will start during the prior contract’s option year and jump his rate to $26 million for each of the next 7 seasons.
A mutual option of $20 million in 2029 has a $6.5 million buyout clause: so it’s a total of $188.5 million of guaranteed new money with the chance for $13.5 million extra with the option.
Yelich would turn 38 during the next December after that option year (if exercised).
There’s some extra details and some rumblings about the possibility of deferred money… we’ll ignore all those details for the purposes of this exercise.
Freeman’s Savings & Loan
Freddie Freeman is in a bit of a different place than Yelich… but not that far away, either.
Freeman is 30½ years old, does not have an MVP trophy (he does have 3 Top-6 finishes in the voting), but does have a gold glove and a silver slugger award.
His career OPS+ is an exact match for Yelich at 137 (with a slightly higher raw OPS value). They are both 37% better than the average offensive performer – regardless of park, league, or position.
By comparison Freeman is not currently underpaid… at least not to the degree that Yelich was, for sure. He’s been at-or-above the $20 million level since 2017 and stands to receive $22 million this season.
Those who put the dollar values on WAR points would disagree, but the market would not dictate that he get the $300 million his numbers would suggest he’s earned, either.
The 6′-5″ first baseman also has exactly 2 years of contract remaining… except there’s no option involved here.
The are additional factors also at work that might drive both sides to the table:
- Freeman’s oft repeated desire to stay with the Braves forever.
- Freeman’s elbow.
- The Braves need for cost surety going forward.
Atlanta doesn’t need to be wondering about how or whether to fuss about Freeman’s deal when entering a walk year (2021). They just went through a painful separation with Josh Donaldson – another player that ‘really wanted to stay in Atlanta’ – when the two sides could not get together on the numbers.
That had better not happen in this case. That’s why now is the right time to get this done.
Freeman might believe his surgically-repaired elbow is now perfect, but his agent should remind him that nothing is that certain in life and an extension at this age and at the peak of his performance curve is never a bad idea.
Atlanta knows that everybody is getting more expensive and that their best shot to insure that their ‘core’ stays together for multiple competitive years is to get the leader to stay put… with dollars determined here in 2020.
Freeman has already done so for the ‘bad years’, and while that all happened under prior administrations, this new General Manager has to recognize that such an act is important to the same franchise that he just inked an extension to support.
All that together is why the Yelich deal represents a very reasonable jumping off point from which to begin negotiations.
Let’s Try This on for Size
Let’s lock up Freeman through his age 38 season. A first baseman should be able to last that long: I’d have many more qualms about Yelich running about in the outfield by that age, but that’s why this is different.
Here’s a humbly-submitted offer, then… it’s not my money to spend, but this would seem to be a solid investment:
- 2021: tear up the existing contract for that season and add $4 million to it… $25 million. That’s his ‘age 31’ season.
- 2022-2027: 6 more years at the same $25 million rate. That takes him through age 38 (in September of 2027).
- 2028: team option for $20 million; $4 million buyout.
Value… $4 million of new money in 2021, then $150 million over the next 6 seasons. The option buyout makes this a $158 million guarantee with the possibility of $174 million additional dollars overall.
The press might characterize it as a 7-year, $179/$195 million contract by taking all of 2021 into account… whatever.
Regardless, like the idea of not allowing ‘lame duck’ managers and even General Managers to become ‘a topic’ that distracts from baseball, this is something that should not be allowed to linger beyond this season.
Better to remove all doubt if all parties are up for it… particularly if you’re still trying to figure out how these newly increased payroll dollars will be spent from this day forward.
Next. The new arms in the house. dark
So yes: the Atlanta Braves should make an extension offer to Freddie Freeman… and if it’s anything in the zip code of these outlined terms, he should take it.