With 240+ innings so far in the Braves’ minor league system, the 2020 season may serve as Ian Anderson‘s first true test as a pro starting pitcher.
The Atlanta Braves currently have a few openings in its big league starting rotation, thanks to an unfortunate and ill-timed shoulder strain to the left arm of newcomer Cole Hamels.
With no shortage in potential candidates for those final two spots, it would be a bit far-fetched to expect the team to turn to its top pitching prospect so soon, given Ian Anderson is fresh off just 24.2 innings at the Triple-A level in 2019.
For now, Sean Newcomb is the the frontrunner for at least one of those two open spots.
However, judging by how the Braves’ top pick in 2016 has performed as a professional pitcher thus far, a debut at some point during the 2020 season is a very real possibility. Because the truth is, until August of last season, Anderson has essentially been on cruise control for the last four years:
Year 1 (2016):
- As an 18-year-old fresh out of high school from Clifton Park, NY, the 6-foot-3 Anderson flourished in his first assignment in the Braves’ organization.
- In five starts apiece for the GCL and Danville Braves, the third-overall pick struck out 36 batters in 39.2 innings (8.2 K/9) while walking only twelve (2.7 BB/9).
- Anderson didn’t allow a single earned-run until his sixth pro start in 2016, and surrendered just one home run overall.
Year 2 (2017):
- It was a full year in Single-A Rome for Anderson, and though at times he shot himself in the foot with free passes, opposing hitters were still over-matched as he wrapped up the 2017 season with 11 strikeouts per nine.
- On May 25, Anderson had the start of his young career when he punched out eleven Augusta batters in a six-inning, one-hitter.
- He allowed a .232 AVG for the 2017 season and didn’t give up a single homer all year, finishing the season with 20 starts and 83 innings overall, while posting a 3.14 ERA.
- Anderson entered the top-10 on most Braves’ prospect lists during the ’17 season.
Year 3 (2018):
- Arguably his best season in the minors when considering his performance against much higher competition, Anderson began 2018 in High-A Florida with a rough first month, posting a 7+ ERA in April.
- Though by August he was promoted to Double-A Mississippi, after striking out 118 batters in exactly 100 innings and maintaining a 2.52 ERA overall with the Fire Frogs.
- Anderson made just four starts in Mississippi to finish up the season, including back-to-back outings to end the year when he combined for 19 strikeouts and five hits allowed in 12.2 innings.
Year 4 (2019):
- Primarily pitching in Mississippi’s starting rotation, Anderson was part of an All-Star starting staff with the M-Braves.
- Throughout the season Anderson ripped off three different double-digit strikeout outings, including a 14-strikeout game in late-June that wound up becoming a combined no-hitter for Mississippi.
- Anderson was moved up to Triple-A Gwinnett by early August, leaving the Southern League as the strikeout leader (147).
- In his five starts in Gwinnett, Anderson’s walk issues popped back up (6.6 BB/9), though he ended 2019 with a career-high 135.2 innings pitched.
Which brings us to the present… Anderson is generating quite the buzz after essentially dominating every level of the minors thus far.
That notwithstanding, Anderson’s next 4-6 months will be the most significant period of his pro career even as he works with the big league club this spring in North Port.
For him to reach his final destination (the majors of course), a continuation of the work he has done must continue… and a little luck wouldn’t hurt, either.
2020 projections
Finding applicable projections for a prospect that may or may not pitch a single inning in the big leagues in 2020 is a bit difficult. Therefore, I have included two different systems for two different contexts (ATC & ZiPS). Both can be found at FanGraphs:
- ATC: takes a weighted average of several different projection systems (link).
- ZiPS: system created by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski, which uses growth/decline curves to find trends. By design ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, so the following projections are simply based on IF the player was allotted that many starts/innings (link).
2020 ATC: 9 starts, 45 IP, 9.73 K/9, 4.63 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9, 4.07 ERA / 4.26 FIP
2020 ZiPS: 26 starts, 127.3 IP, 9.82 K/9, 4.95 BB/9, 1.34 HR/9, 4.59 ERA / 4.78 FIP
Overall, I still believe the ceiling for Anderson is that of a no. 2 starter. Perhaps he doesn’t wield as much upside as even some of the other prospect arms in the Braves’ system, but his secondaries (mainly his curveball) are advanced enough for him to potentially continue as a strikeout-type pitcher in the big leagues.
Basically, Anderson is right up there with Mike Soroka as one of the best pitching prospects the Braves have had, at least since the Julio Teheran prospect days (and Anderson has much more strikeout upside than Teheran did as a prospect).
Of course things will begin to become clearer after Anderson gets several starts under his belt in Gwinnett.