Apparently winning an MVP award isn’t quite enough, as Atlanta Braves outfield prospect Drew Waters is nowhere to be found in Keith Law’s Top 100 ranking.
Listed as a top-50 talent on one site, and even a top-30 player on another… how could one recent list completely overlook Atlanta Braves switch-hitting prospect Drew Waters?
Until baseball scouting is completely overtaken by some kind of modernization that rids the practice of any human elements (probably first kicked off by the Astros), prospect rankings will forever feature some form of subjectivity.
At least right now, there is no exact science when it comes to assessing the talent level of a player.
Even so, personal opinion reared its sometimes ugly head on Monday morning as Keith Law shared his annual top-100 prospect rankings (subscription required) for all the world to see, though this time at his new home at The Athletic instead of ESPN. Here’s how the Braves fared:
- #5, Cristian Pache, OF
- #27, Ian Anderson, RHP
- #61, Kyle Wright, RHP
- #65, Bryse Wilson, RHP
- #75, William Contreras, C
- #94, Braden Shewmake, SS
At first glance, perhaps there shouldn’t be anything to contest regarding Law’s rankings. His list featured the usual top-100 Braves we’ve grown accustomed to seeing, while also including a couple of surprises with catcher William Contreras and shortstop Braden Shewmake sneaking in.
In fact, Law’s top-100 featured more Braves’ prospects (six) than either of FanGraphs (five) or MLB Pipeline (five).
But Law committed a fatal flaw and one that essentially ruined his list — at least from a Braves’ point-of-view — when he completely left out 2019’s Southern League MVP, outfielder Drew Waters.
Even with an overly aggressive approach at the plate, Waters still put together one of the most productive seasons in the Braves’ minor leagues in 2019, earning him a strong ranking in FanGraphs’ (no. 43) and MLB Pipeline’s (no. 26) most recent prospect lists.
What more does Law need to see from the kid?
Sure, constructing a prospect ranking can be tough and even quite the thankless job, but a blunder is a blunder, folks… and leaving out Waters is a rather questionable decision.
Just his stats alone illustrate a top-tier prospect, as Waters hit .309, slugged 7 home runs and 40 doubles, while also tallying 16 stolen bases in 134 games (108 in AA / 26 in AAA).
His swing and bat speed are so advanced that it mostly covers up flaws in his approach (which were more apparent once in Gwinnett), but this is a 21-year-old drawing comparisons to that of Starling Marte.
For Law to be a little skeptical of Waters is understandable, and there’s nothing wrong with remaining in wait-and-see mode as it pertains to his sometimes troubling plate discipline.
However, even if Waters never quite reaches the ceiling everyone’s hoping for, he’s still one of the better players in the minor leagues presently, and his switch-hitting abilities to go with strong defense will certainly allow him to contribute at the big league level in the near future.
I’ll never attack a fellow writer for his opinion on a player, and I know all about putting together such a controversial write-up (in the end, none of us really know anything for certain when it comes to prospects), but I’m afraid Law got this one wrong.
If Bryse Wilson, William Contreras, and Braden Shewmake are all top-100 talents, then there’s no reason Waters shouldn’t be as well.