Atlanta Braves: How will Adam Duvall, postseason hero, do in 2020?
When the Atlanta Braves acquired Adam Duvall in 2018, they were picking up an All-Star slugger on a bit of a down note. The organization was patient with him, it paid postseason dividends, and could pay out ever further in 2020.
Atlanta Braves outfielder Adam Duvall has always been more of the ‘all-or-nothing’ type of hitter. He’s always had good power, played good defense and is a seriously underrated athlete in my opinion.
As a press box lackey for a few years for the Richmond Flying Squirrels, I got to see a full season of Duvall in 2013, where he hit 17 home runs playing half his games in one of the worst hitters parks ever, The Diamond, and the other half in the equally as stingy Eastern League.
I love the The Diamond. Growing up there and watching the Richmond Braves was a treat – as bad as they were most of the time – but that’s not what this article is about.
Adam Duvall had barely gotten his feet wet in the major leagues with the San Francisco Giants and spent some time at AAA Fresno before he was dealt at the 2015 trading deadline to the Cincinnati Reds along with Keury Mella for Mike Leake. After winning championships in 2010, 2012 and 2014, the Giants were getting pitching for the postseason push.
In 2016, Duvall blossomed into the outfielder and hitter that the Giants may wish they would have kept. He was an All-Star for the Reds, and finished the year with 33 home runs and 101 RBI.
In 2017, he followed up that effort with 31 more home runs and 99 RBI. Duvall hit .241 and .249 in those seasons respectively with his share of strikeouts… all 334 of them.
It was in 2018 where he kind of lost himself, hitting just .205 and whiffing 100 times in just 331 at-bats that concerned the Reds, so they packaged him in a deal to the Atlanta Braves where we gave up Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims and Preston Tucker – the latter who we later re-acquired that September.
With the Atlanta Braves, Duvall had a miserable time, looking lost at the plate. He hit .132, striking out 17 times in 53 at-bats and failing to hit a home run.
Then, that offseason, the Atlanta Braves tendered him a contract for 2019, much to the chagrin of many fans.
We were paying 2.9 million dollars for that quality of a player. Yes, yes we were.
Back to the bus leagues
For a guy that hit 63 homers over two seasons and made an All-Star team as recently as 2016, it had to be a humbling experience to find yourself playing in AAA, for an team who typically feeds near the bottom of the International League in attendance- the Gwinnett Stripers.
Duvall seemed to take it in stride. It was all about getting that swing back that enabled him to hit all those home runs for the Red Legs.
That’s exactly what he did. As a Striper, he crushed 32 home runs in just 369 at-bats. He was an International League All-Star and anchored what was an intimidating Stripers line-up in terms of power-hitting.
That performance with the bat earned him a promotion back the major leagues on July 27. He was briefly optioned again on August 26 when Dansby Swanson returned from the disabled list, but joined the Atlanta Braves again on September 5.
When Duvall came up in July, he played like he might never go back. He went 3-5 in his first game back, a 15-7 rout of the Phillies, hitting a home run.
He recorded hits in his next two games before unloading on the Nationals for four hit day that included two solo home runs. The next day, he hit another homer.
The day after that, he tagged his former team, the Reds for another bomb.
Getting back to his old self
In a week’s stretch, Duvall had gone 12-25 (.480) with five homers and 7 RBI. He did cool, getting regular playing time but seeing his average settle to .241. He hit just one additional homer before taking another break with the Stripers.
In September, ‘Duvy’ was more of a part-time player, but hit the ball better than he did in August, hitting four homers.
Then came the postseason.
Lightning doesn’t usually strike in the same place twice, but Duvall got two huge hits for the Atlanta Braves in the postseason.
One was a home run to center field in game two of the NLDS, after fans booed Brian Snitker for taking out a red-hot Mike Foltynewicz. The second was in game three. After Dansby tied the game at one, Duvall singled off Carlos Martinez, driving in two runs that became the winning runs.
Sometimes, being patient with a player pays off.
A crowded outfield
With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna the starters in right in left field, respectively, and Ender Inciarte as the presumptive starter in centerfield, Duvall is pretty blocked from getting regular at-bats.
On paper, Duvall will battle for at-bats off the bench with Nick Markakis.
Looking at Ender, his two gold glove caliber defense makes him a valuable asset. However, I don’t think he performed well enough offensively or if he was consistent enough in 2019 to just ‘be the starter.’
Markakis brings excellent contact hitting to the table, and won a gold glove in 2018. There’s also that quiet veteran leadership that’s helped the Atlanta Braves so much.
We’ve talked about Duvall’s good defense and immense power potential.
The Atlanta Braves have what we call a good problem. That’s a lot of talent in the outfield.
When will we see Duvall?
As a right-handed batter, I suspect that we’d see Adam Duvall mostly against left-handed pitching… though his career splits don’t indicate any sort of dominance against them.
- vs. Righties: 1313 at-bats/.230 avg/70 homers/227 RBI
- vs. Lefties: 467 at-bats/.240 avg/27 homers/69 RBI
If you were to equal at the at-bats vs. righties and lefties, Duvall would have about 77 home runs vs. lefties. As you can see, the batting average isn’t much different, and the run production would be pretty level as well.
However, 2019 tells a bit of a different story in a small sample size.
- vs. Righties: 81 at-bats / .235 avg / 6 homers /11 RBI
- vs. Lefties: 39 at-bats / .333 avg/ 4 homers / 8 RBI
Snit will have the challenge of getting everyone enough at-bats to keep them in tip-top shape. For Duvall, and many other power hitters, this is key.
In order for Duvall to get on a hot streak, he’s got to play, and when he’s hot, he’s got to be in the line-up. I don’t care if it’s for a week, or two months (gosh, I hope he goes crazy for two months).
So, it’s really up to the players’ performance and Snit as to how and when these guys play.
Boy, I’m sure ready for a flood of comments on Facebook questioning every decision that Snit makes with the outfield. This should probably be better than people second-guessing his bullpen decisions (all he’s done is win, people!).
On the flip side of things, Duvall is now out of minor league options, so if he does struggle, the Atlanta Braves would have to place him on waivers.
You’ve got to think that a team near the bottom of the standings would give him an opportunity to play everyday because of his power potential. I seriously doubt he would clear waivers unless he really, really stinks it up. Even if he passed through waivers, he could decline the outright and become a free agent.
Next. I figure we can change this since it's so far in advance. dark
My prediction for Adam Duvall in 2020: .256 avg, 13 HR, 32 RBI