Atlanta Braves 3B: Top 10 Trade Targets to Track in 2020
The Atlanta Braves will likely be just fine at third base between Riley and Camargo. However, in case the wheels fall off, here are a few players to keep track of in 2020.
While we all expect the Atlanta Braves Austin Riley or Johan Camargo to step up this season, there’s an outside shot that neither player is able to grab that brass ring.
Now don’t take this as a pessimistic “The Braves have no chance, this writer is saying Riley and Camargo stink!” This is simply a hypothetical exercise, a what if?
In that unlikely and unfortunate situation, the Braves might be forced to reach into their deep farm system to bring in a hired hand at third base to help finish the season. I didn’t rank them in any particular order of importance or value, considering that values will change as the season progresses.
We all know about the Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado trade-winds. Today we’ll focus on some names that maybe haven’t been discussed as much as the headliners.
These are guys on teams that may have the incentive to move them. Teams that are perhaps rebuilding, projected to be terrible, or both. We start with the San Francisco Giants.
10. Evan Longoria
The Braves could go back to the well with the Giants after dealing for Mark Melancon mid-way through last season.
Evan Longoria is a veteran player making way too much money for a rebuilding club. He is owed $49 million through the end of the 2022 season with a $5 million buyout in 2023. It’s a lot of dough for a player that slashed .254/.325/.437 last season.
The Giants would have to pick up a big chunk of that salary. Longoria may not be the MVP candidate he used to be, but at 34-years-old he did post a wRC+ above 100 last year and hit 20 homers in 453 at-bats while playing his home games in the unfriendly confines of Oracle Park in San Francisco.
He’s a veteran presence that has been to a World Series. Before moving forward, if you are not familiar with expected slugging or xSLG, then allow me to explain.
Expected slugging helps remove defense and stadium factors from the equation to more accurately reflect numbers based on the type of contact the player made. Please read more about xSLG here.
According to Statcast, last season, Longoria’s expected xSLG was .498, which placed him in the 78th percentile of the major leagues.
He was well above average in every category except for sprint speed. Outside of still providing a solid bat with pop and veteran leadership, he can still sling the leather.
Longoria is already the owner of three Gold Glove Awards. Last season, he showed he still has it as he posted 7 defensive runs saved and ranked in the 80th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA).
A change of scenery could be just what the veteran needs. Finding himself back in the throes of a playoff hunt could make Longoria a great value, especially when two other teams (Rays already paying a portion) would be helping the Braves pay his salary.
With his age and declining perception, he wouldn’t cost the Braves a whole lot in the way of highly-valued prospects.
Three Brewers
Most projections have the Brewers finishing around fourth place in their division this year. They lost star players Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas.
They chose to replace Moustakas with three players. If the Braves reach the trade deadline and it becomes evident they need to make a move, one of these three may have proved to be a target.
Again, these are veteran players on one-year deals. Eric Sogard is on a one-year, $4.5 million contract. Ryon Healy is on a one-year deal worth $1 million. Jedd Gyroko is on a one-year, $2 million deal.
The Brewers are the only team without one player inside of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects.
9. Jedd Gyorko
All three have been solid contributors at some point in their careers. Gyorko’s best season came with the Cardinals in 2016 in somewhat of a part-time role.
In only 400 at-bats for the Redbirds, he clobbered 30 homers and 59 RBI. Despite the 30 home runs, he only had nine doubles that year.
He’s always been sort of a one-trick pony at the plate. He’s never been an on-base guy with a career .309 OBP and has never hit above a .272 average.
However, he brings home run power and is an otherwise league-average hitter with a career OPS+ of 100.
He also brings good infield defense with 24 defensive runs saved between second and third base.
If you look at his Baseball-Reference page and wonder about the discrepancy between what I just told you and his total of 14, it’s because he has -10 rDRS at shortstop. That’s why we have Adeiny Hechavarria as Dansby Swanson insurance.
8. Ryon Healy
Ryon Healy burst onto the scene in 2016 with 13 homers, 20 doubles, and a .305 average in his first 72 games as a rookie for the Oakland Athletics. He proceeded to hit 25 and 24 homers over the next two seasons.
He has a career batting average of .261 but he does not take walks very well. What do I mean? Over his first three seasons in the majors, he has the exact amount of walks (62) as he has home runs.
Healy does offer a respectable slugging percentage at .452 for his career. Unfortunately, he doesn’t offer much on the defensive side. In his career as a third baseman, he has averaged -21 defensive runs saved over his career.
The only way I could imagine Healy taking charge in Milwaukee is if the spirit of competition allows him to showcase his power. On a positive note for Healy, his walk-rate has increased in each of the past three seasons. In a small sample size in 2019, it did reach a more reasonable rate of seven percent.
7. Eric Sogard
Eric Sogard had a career year in 2019, the 5-10, 185-pounder must have gained his “old-man strength” at age 33.
Sogard had a career slugging percentage of .314 between 2010-2018. During that time he also had accumulated just 11 career home runs in eight seasons.
Last year he added 13 homers to his total. He slugged .457 or .144 points better than his career average.
I don’t know what got into him but when you combine that kind of hitting ability with his defense you get a 2.6 rWAR in just 110 games. Last season Sogard ranked in the 90th percentile in OAA.
6. Kyle Seager
Kyle Seager represents a pretty big name in the game. He’s finished in the top 20 in MVP voting twice in his career. He owns one Gold Glove and an All-Star appearance.
In nine major league seasons, he’s compiled 30.4 rWAR. Seager has eight consecutive seasons of 20 or more homers. His career average sits at .256 with a .324 on-base percentage and a .443 slugging.
No doubt, he’s a solid major-league hitter. Seager danced around the line separating the really good from the best hitters. Last season he only managed 106 games and 393 at-bats, but he slugged .468, the most since his 30-homer season in 2016 when he slugged .499. His xSLG last season was even higher with a .486.
In his 393 at-bats, he blasted 23 homers for the Mariners. He’s been a consistently productive hitter with only one full season with an OPS+ under 100. For his career, he has a very nice 113 OPS+. There’s no doubt he brings a steady and solid bat to the lineup.
Seager has traditionally supplied solid defense at the hot corner. According to Statcast, he ranked in the 72nd percentile in infield Outs Above Average last season.
In 2014 he had 10 defensive runs saved at third and in 2016 he posted 15 defensive runs saved. However, in the last three seasons, he has -8 rDRS. Despite posting -1 defensive runs saved last season, his ultimate zone rating was 6.9 runs above average.
Seager’s Contract
Seager is set to earn $19.5 million this season and $18.5 million next year. He has a $15 million team option in 2022…Oh, but if he’s traded it becomes a player option.
If the Braves do make a move for Seager then they are essentially trading for a three-year, $52 million contract.
Seager has been well-above average for his career, as we discussed his OPS+ earlier. He’s been a stable force in the Mariners lineup. Is he worth that much money? Keep in mind, he’s entering his age-32 season and the contract will take him through his age-34 season.
It all depends on how the trade market plays out as the season progresses. It also depends on Seattle’s asking price.
Seattle has the motivation to move Seager. They are in the early stages of a long-term rebuild and getting Seager’s money off the books for the next two seasons is likely a priority.
The real obstacle in this trade is the third-year option. Even if the Mariners pick up a portion of the contract, the Braves will be stuck with a third-year option that really is of no concern to the Mariners.
It could be used as leverage to lower the asking price. A Seager deal will require some ingenuity from both sides.
With a player, the caliber of Seager on the trade block, the Braves and any other contenders that may be in need of assistance at third base will definitely be monitoring his season.
If Seager continues to produce the way he was last season, he’ll be worth kicking the tires on.
Beware the Rays
It’s always a risky proposition to make a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays. They have a history of dominating trades. There is an amazing trade tree planted in St. Petersburg that has branched out and produced baskets of premium fruits. That tree was planted by a seed called the Delmon Young trade.
I’ll keep this brief, but they turned Delmon Young into Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Those guys helped lead the team to a World Series appearance in 2008.
Then they traded both Garza and Bartlett a couple of years later and received a handful of prospects…by a handful I mean NINE.
A couple of those names included highly regarded prospects like Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, Cesar Ramos, and Chris Archer.
They turned Chris Archer into Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz. As of this writing, the Rays turned Delmon Young into 40.8 WAR and counting.
So, we have to keep all of that in mind when dealing with the Rays shrewd front office. Right now they are telling the Tampa area that the only way to keep baseball in the market is to share the team with Montreal? What’s the benefit to the Rays? Two huge TV contracts instead of one! They are a smart group.
With that in mind, they have the world’s best prospect in Wander Franco. Franco has been the number one prospect in almost every major publication for two consecutive years, and he’s only entering his age-19 season.
Rays vice president of baseball operations Erik Neander recently stated: ” We want Wander to be in our plans this year.”
The issue: Wander plays shortstop. The Rays already have one of the game’s top players at the position.
Willy Adames led the league in defensive runs saved and crushed 20 homers. Some believe Wander could end up at second base, but Brandon Lowe is coming off of an All-Star appearance in his rookie season.
There’s a chance Franco could assume responsibilities as the hot corner.
This leads us to two potential trade targets at third base in St. Pete.
5. Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz has ranked among the game’s hardest hitters over the past few seasons. Last season he averaged 91.7 MPH off the bat, which was good for 23rd best in all of baseball.
Only 22 players were hitting the ball harder than Yandy, on average. This is why his lack of power has been confounding front offices and fans for years.
In five full minor league seasons and 2,247 PAs, Yandy has a total of 26 homers. That’s a ratio of one homer every 72 ABs.
Prior to the 2019 season, he had logged 256 major-league at-bats and registered exactly one home run. Not good.
Why? Yandy has a groundball problem. Last year was his lowest groundball percentage of his career and it was still over 50% of his batted balls. The thing is, he hits it so hard that he still hits for a solid average. Yandy Diaz is also an on-base machine.
On-Base Percentages
76 games in A+: .396
158 games in AA: .417
282 games in AAA: .415
167 games in MLB: .350
The Rays traded for him the last offseason and worked their magic. They didn’t try to revamp his entire swing, they worked on one minor adjustment. They liked Yandy’s ability to hit the ball to all fields, hit it hard, and get on-base.
Here’s what Rays’ manager, Kevin Cash had to say about Yandy’s swing last spring.
“We’re not messing with his hitting. We think he’s going to hit. Regardless of [if] it’s on the ground, in the air, a line drive. he’ll hit.”
More Yandy and Mike Brosseau
Yandy ended up blasting 14 homers in 307 at-bats for the Rays. Many believe he’s a breakout candidate for 2020 with 35+ homer potential.
The Rays, however, were using him as a leadoff hitter in the Wild Card game last year. They appreciate his ability to get on base. By the way, he hit two line-drive, opposite-field shots off Sean Manaea in that game.
If Yandy continues the growth he showed last season, the Braves may want to check in on the asking price. We have to remember, the Rays love their depth, but they also love compiling prospects. They are head and shoulders above the rest of the league in minor league depth. With Wander Franco on the verge of making his major league debut, I’m sure they are open to listening.
The Rays already have a very crowded outfield, corner infield, and DH situations. Here are the players in contention for playing time at all of those spots.
OF – Kevin Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Randy Arozarena, Jose Martinez, and Brian O’Grady
1B/3B – Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz, Daniel Robertson, Joey Wendle, Mike Brosseau, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Jose Martinez, Nate Lowe, and Brian O’Grady.
As you can see, they are going to have to make room for Wander Franco somehow. If they can restock their minor leagues by moving an expendable major league piece, the Rays will do it in a heart-beat.
Yandy may come with a higher asking price so it may be wise to check in on another player buried on the Rays’ depth chart.
4. Mike Brosseau
It’s unclear how much playing time will be available for Mike Brosseau in 2020. He is currently listed as fourth on the Rays depth chart at third base behind Diaz, Wendle, and Robertson.
Brosseau exceeded his rookie limits last season for the Rays and slashed .273/.319/.462 in just 50 games. He actually logged more games at second base than he did at third for Tampa in 2019.
Brosseau was signed as an amateur free agent in 2016 and had blossomed into a legitimate power hitter by the time he reached Triple-A. In 73 games with AAA-Durham, Brosseau slashed .304/.394/.567.
He blasted 21 doubles and 16 homers in just 270 at-bats. He’s not a proven major league commodity yet, but the big stage didn’t phase him last season.
3. Brian Anderson
Brian Anderson just completed his second complete season with the Marlins and things are looking up. We saw his power potential come to fruition in 2019 as he brought his slugging percentage up from .400 in ’18 to .468 in 2019.
Anderson only hit 11 homers in 156 games in 2018, but he did walk 62 times slashing .273/.357/.400. In his age-26 season last year, Anderson blasted 33 doubles and 20 homers in just 126 games with 459 at-bats. He increased his OPS from .757 in ’18 to .811 in ’19.
Anderson posted a 3.8 rWAR in 2019 and posted three defensive runs saved, so he’s not hurting anybody on defense.
According to Statcast, Anderson ranked in the 86th percentile in hard-hit percentage in 2019. He is one season from arbitration and under team control for four more seasons.
Miami is in the midst of a rebuild. Although Anderson is still young with plenty of team control, the Marlins do not have any untouchables.
They are attempting to stock up and Anderson is a great fit for any contender in need of major league ready services. If the Marlins believe they can turn Anderson into a few prospects, they might go for it.
As a bonus, Anderson is a completely capable third sacker and right fielder.
Anderson is a very good (and getting better) 27-year-old major league talent. He’ll cost more in prospects but the tradeoff is four years of team control.
MLBTraderumors.com pointed out that Anderson is the best all-around player on the club and the asking price should be high since he could still be viewed as a building block for the Marlins, rather than a trade piece.
2. Jake Lamb
Jake Lamb hasn’t done much since 2017. In 2018 he suffered a rotator cuff injury that required surgery. In April of 2019, Lamb suffered a quad injury.
By the time he returned, Eduardo Escobar had solidified himself as a top player at third, and Christian Walker broke out at first base for the Diamondbacks.
After Paul Goldschmidt packed up for St. Louis, the notion was that Lamb would take over at first. Injuries kept him out of the fray for too long.
Now there appears to be little room for the former slugger. If he’s healthy, he could be a nice addition to another team if the Diamondbacks are willing to part with him.
Prior to the 40-man roster deadline, Lamb was a name floated about as a potential candidate to be non-tendered.
With surprising performances from Ketel Marte as an MVP candidate, Carson Kelly and Christian Walker, the Diamondbacks (surprisingly) found themselves in contention for a wild card when most thought they’d be in rebuild mode.
This offseason they pushed their chips in and signed Madison Bumgarner and traded for Starling Marte.
Having a proven slugger like Lamb as a bench player that can play both corner infield spots is a wonderful luxury for a playoff team.
This would have to be a deadline deal. It’s unlikely that the D-backs keep pace with the juggernaut Dodgers, but a wild card spot is within reach.
The big question is the rotation beyond Bumgarner… or you could even question Bumgarner.
With a couple of unfortunate breaks for the Diamondbacks, a healthy Jake Lamb could be a trade-deadline target for the Braves. Between 2016-2017 Lamb posted a .843 OPS with 59 homers and 196 RBI.
1. Jose Ramirez
The Cleveland Indians were already shopping Jose Ramirez this offseason as they appear to be heading toward a rebuild. The White Sox and the Twins appear to be the superior teams in the division.
The Indians have already traded former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber to the Texas Rangers and reportedly shopped superstar Francisco Lindor, along with Jose Ramirez.
Reports just came out that Indians’ ace Mike Clevinger is about to undergo surgery on a partially torn medial meniscus in his left knee. While he won’t be out for the whole season, he’s likely to miss the first part of the year. If the Indians get off to a slow start in that division, they could resume their shopping of Lindor and Ramirez.
Ramirez had a horrible first half last season but rebounded enough to salvage all of his numbers.
In the previous two seasons, he was nothing short of incredible. Between 2017-2018, Ramirez slashed .294/.380/.567, stole 51 bags, blasted 94 doubles, 68 homers, 188 RBI, and 10 triples. His OPS+ over those two seasons stands at 148.
He’s a two-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger. Ramirez is only entering his age-27 season in 2020 and is a plus defender with 21 defensive runs saved between third base and second base.
Since 2017, Jose has posted 18.0 rWAR.
Ramirez is on a very team-friendly contract for the next four seasons. He may cost the most of everyone on the list, but he’s the type of player you can only hope a prospect will turn into.
Next. Braves' Offseason Grades. dark
Again, while we certainly hope and expect Riley and Camargo to step up in 2020, if they don’t, the Braves have plenty of fallback options during the season. Who would you want the Braves to target?