The Wildcard: How Austin Riley can make or break the Atlanta Braves season
We take a look at how Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley could be the wild card for the team’s success or failure in 2020.
I didn’t think Austin Riley was ready for the major leagues at the start of the 2019 season. He had done decently in the minors the year before, but nothing screamed that he had to be called up right away. The Atlanta Braves certainly didn’t think he was ready coming out of spring training.
Of course, Riley then went on to lead the International League in home runs by the time of early May, which certainly caught the Braves’ attention. The lineup needed a spark, and Riley was the lighter that would start a raging fire.
When Austin Riley was called up to the Atlanta Braves on May 15, 2019, he immediately showed why he was called up so soon. In that first game I saw him hit a massive home run in person at the former SunTrust Park, and I knew his power was special.
In his first month in the league, it seemed like nobody could get Riley out. It truly was spectacular to witness. His defense in the outfield wasn’t exactly the greatest, but nobody cared if he was hitting homers and doubles every game.
Then, the other shoe dropped. In July, Riley slumped immensely. His OPS, which had been in the mid .900s since his call up, tanked. At the end of the year, his OPS was .750, which on paper doesn’t seem so bad for a rookie.
However, it does show how far Riley fell from his May and June performance level. Pitchers finally realized that he was having trouble with off-speed pitches, especially sliders. Riley simply could not adapt, which is not uncommon for rookies who have early success in the league.
Because of this, Riley was a nonfactor in the playoffs, which certainly harmed the team.
In this piece, I will discuss how his offense and defense can carry the Braves to new heights, or force the team to turn to Johan Camargo as an everyday third baseman (I like Camargo as a player, I just don’t think he has nearly as much potential as Riley).
Adjustments needed
Austin Riley was an insanely good hitter from when he was called up on May 15th through early July. However, after that, he had a large degree of difficulty handling pitches of all kinds, most notably sliders and fastballs.
This struggle following a period of success is nothing new for Riley. In an excellent article from Fangraphs, they break down the struggles that Riley had early in his career.
“In the 2016-2017 offseason, Eric wrote up Riley, reflecting his ongoing journey toward shoring up holes against velocity and maintaining quickness defensively: Riley began the year struggling with any sort of velocity and then improved the timing of his footwork, quieted his hands and started hitting. Late in the year, he was turning on plus velocity.”
I think that his struggles are rooted in the fact that pitchers began throwing him more off-speed pitches. This in turn made him change his approach at the plate, which likely made him more late on fastballs due to his worries about the slider.
With a whole offseason to work on his timing on all pitches, I think Riley will be able to adjust to the difficulty of the pro level, just like he did in the minors.
Throughout his Minor League career, he struggled when facing a new level but then figured it out the second season. We’re hoping that’s the case in 2020 with the Braves.
A healthy and productive Riley is key to the Braves success in 2020. With him, the lineup after the first four players looks a lot better. Without him, the bottom four looks a bit shaky, especially after you look at the Dodgers lineup since their trade for Mookie Betts (still pending).
Defense Wins Championships
Last season, with Josh Donaldson manning the hot corner, Riley really did not get much of a chance to show the Braves that he could pick it at the position. When he did get a chance to play third, I didn’t really see any issues with his play.
However, I don’t think he is as good defensively as Donaldson was or even as good as Camargo at the position. In the same Fangraphs article, the same writer I mentioned above (Eric) had some thoughts about Riley’s defense circa 2016.
“But at just 19, with some general stiffness to his actions, Riley is pretty likely to kick over to first base as he matures. The adjustments he made last year were encouraging, but reports from late in the year indicate some vulnerability on the outer half, and it’s going to be difficult for him to clear the offensive bar at first base with his current contact profile.”
Clearly, he has made a decent amount of progress at the position to have made it this far. Just a season later, a different writer (in the same FanGraphs article referenced above), Kiley McDaniel, gave his thoughts on Riley after the 2017-2018 offseason.
“Riley has slimmed down and has a chance to stick at third base now, but his easy plus raw power and improving contact ability will play anywhere on the diamond, possibly as soon as this September in the big leagues.”
In a very small 38 inning sample size at third, he had a 1.000 fielding percentage in 13 tries with no errors. I really can’t draw much out of that, but the eye test tells me that he will at least be an average fielder as a full-time third baseman.
Next. The Big 3. dark
If he can just be average at the position while hitting at a similar rate to his early-season success in 2019, he would be a difference-maker for the Braves in 2020, just like he was in May and June.