Atlanta Braves: Max Fried projected to lead starting staff in 2020
Max Fried had some rough starts for the Atlanta Braves in 2019, but things are looking up for this left-hander.
Though Max Fried had the second most wins of all NL pitchers, anyone who watched him pitch last year knows it was not always the easiest thing to watch. He gave up 80 runs in the regular season, the second most of anyone on the Atlanta Braves starting pitching staff next to Julio Teheran.
There was, however, never a lack of run support when Fried was on the mound. The Braves scored 4 or more runs in 27 of the 30 games where he started. It was most definitely this run support which allowed Fried to reach 17 wins in the regular season.
One example of this run support is the July 27th game against the Phillies. Fried gave up 5 runs in 5.1 innings pitched. This struggle did not matter though, because the Braves offense would put up 15 runs in this game and give Fried the win.
Despite the many runs he allowed, Fried had a good first full season in the major leagues. He grew a lot throughout the season, even when riddled with those pesky blisters, which makes the possibility of him improving in 2020 even greater.
The Braves definitely have rotation needs coming into the season after losing two of their starters in free agency. The best solution for these needs would be our young pitchers like Fried stepping up to take on more innings and becoming better more well rounded starters.
If Fried continues his pattern of growth, he can be a large part of this solution.
Soroka has already cemented himself as a powerhouse in the rotation, but projections lead me to believe that Max Fried will be someone to seriously watch out for on the mound in 2020.
Can Fried improve to be a better pitcher than Soroka and prove himself as a staff this upcoming season?
The Road to Stardom
Throughout his career Fried has been compared to the likes of many pitchers, even our very own Cole Hamels, but his pitches and their movement are what make him unique.
Max Fried’s curveball has been one of his most talked-about pitches. The movement on this pitch is a big part of his rise to the big leagues. I mean just take a look at this video from @PitchingNinja on Twitter of ten of his nastiest curveballs.
10 Max Fried Curveballs from last night in 15 seconds. #NSFW pic.twitter.com/luKIYgQIeH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 22, 2019
A Major League starter must have a good mix of pitches in order to work counts and batters. Fried works with a four seam fastball, a curveball, a changeup, and a slider he added in 2019.
In a piece entitled, “Max Fried Has Raised His Ceiling”, Tony Wolfe of FanGraphs notes that Fried never threw a slider in the first two years he pitched in the majors, but used it 15% of the time in 2019. This became his most effective pitch, causing an opponent wOBA of .228.
The addition of the slider is what made Fried stick as a starting pitcher. His fastball on the other hand, is the pitch that can still use some improvement.
This pitch did improve slightly in velocity in the last season, but it is still a bit of a liability keeping him from being the most effective. Of the 21 home runs he gave up, 12 of them were on fastballs.
Hopefully, Fried is working on this pitch the most in the offseason, and any sort of improvement would be a step in the right direction.
As he continues to fine-tune these pitches – especially the fastball – he will only become more dominant with his pitch arsenal.
Intriguing 2020 Projections
It struck me when I was looking at Braves pitcher projections that Fried is supposed to make a minor improvement in the next season. Steamer projects him to have a 3.2 WAR, a .2 increase from before.
One thing to keep in mind when looking at this projection is that it is due in part to the increase in innings that he will likely have. He was limited in innings, but is fully expected to take on a larger load this upcoming year with the loss of the two free agents I mentioned earlier.
Nonetheless, at first glance, that projection is not very striking. A 0.2 increase is minor if anything. But the most shocking thing about this is this number compared to Soroka’s projection.
Soroka is projected to have a 3.0 WAR, a 1.0 WAR drop from his performance in 2019. For someone that is considered the team’s best starter, this would be quite a regression.
In looking at the numbers, it seems that this regression comes on a better opponent BABIP and BA. Opponents are said to get better balls batted into play on Soroka than Fried.
Fried pushing above Soroka would be a shock to many. Sure: this would not mean he is becoming one of the best pitchers in the league in the course of an offseason, but if you are looking solely at the Braves rotation, this is huge.
If he were to perform better than Soroka, he could very much take over as the Braves staff leader. With the help of a possibly improved four seamer, he could go far beyond projections. The upside is still there.
Next. Hope springs eternal as calendar turns to February. dark
Fried has the talent, pitch variation and movement, and ability to be a top pitcher in the league, and ultimately the best Braves starter. The question here is just in whether or not he can begin to unleash that ability in the coming season.