Braves prospects: It’s time to view Tucker Davidson as elite
One of Double-A’s stars in 2019, Davidson was yet another Atlanta Braves’prospect that excelled. Although, he appears to have an even better performance planned for 2020.
This past weekend I kicked off a more loosely constructed series with which I hope is a rather straightforward objective — to go into more depth regarding our most recent Atlanta Braves‘ top-30 prospect rankings, while at the same time, hopefully providing more clarity as to why certain players are ranked where.
Our rankings list does in fact provide its own bit of details, though there’s only so much you can include when delivering a ranking of 30 players. Short and simple was the goal then, but fine points and interesting specifics will be the target going forward.
I didn’t even bother naming this series of articles, so just simply look for Braves prospects in the title as an indicator and know that the prospect(s) mentioned there is a player-profile within this series.
To get a better idea, you can always revert back to the first post of this sequence or by simply clicking the Prospects tab from the upper-left dropdown (they will all be there in order):
- Post #1: Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson both have work to do
To keep things consistent, I will include all prior posts — as well as a quick intro like this one — in every new edition, you know… like a proper series.
But let’s move on to this talented lefty who seems to be quite popular these days…
There was perhaps a small list of prospects that the general dedicated Braves’ fan most likely felt would breakout in 2019, and for me, Tucker Davidson was NOT one of them.
It wasn’t that I necessarily felt less high on him than other Braves’ prospects, but it was more of a case where the organization’s other talent just seemed to simply shine more bright. Davidson somehow fell through the cracks.
In Davidson’s first couple of years in the Braves’ system — after being taken in the 19th round of the 2016 draft — he was used primarily as a reliever, as his low-90s fastball and still premature secondaries weren’t that of a top-tier starting pitcher.
Coming out of the draft, Davidson ranked as the 500th best overall pitcher and 59th best lefty in the nation, and just barely within the top-70 in the state of Texas, according to Perfect Game.
It’s rather apparent that the industry wasn’t exactly overjoyed with Davidson as a 20-year-old beginning his first season as a pro.
Although, after a 2016 season in rookie ball that featured a 1.52 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9, followed by a 2017 in Single-A Rome that was essentially just as impressive (2.60 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9), his name began to become a bit more popular.
In the offseason leading up to the 2018 campaign, FanGraphs pegged Davidson as the Braves’ No. 18 prospect and a 45 FV (Future Value) — a solid endorsement for sure, especially considering the class included guys like Ronald Acuna Jr. (No. 1), a healthy Luiz Gohara (No. 3), and a then-50 FV Touki Toussaint (No. 8).
Overall, that 2018 group was extraordinary, as it featured a whopping 10(!) top-100 prospects and 11 50 FV+ grades. For Tuck, I’d say he was just happy to be included in the party.
But you could say Davidson’s 2018 wasn’t quite ideal, as the Braves challenged him a bit and promoted him to High-A Florida for the start of the season. After making 12 starts in the season prior, the Braves were now interested in Tucker Davidson The Starting Pitcher.
His first full year as a starter with the Fire Frogs wasn’t eye-opening, as his recently newfound fastball velocity took a bit of a hit.
In 24 starts (118.1 IP), Davidson struck out 99 and walked 58, good for a respectable 7.5 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9. His 4.18 ERA wasn’t terrific, either, though his home run prevention was strong, surrendering just 5 home runs all year (0.4 HR/9).
At 22-years-old — a year below the average age in High-A — Davidson’s 2018 was neither great nor poor, but it was certainly the last time any thought would be required to make such a distinction regarding his end-of-season performance.
No longer just ‘one of the guys’
Considering the incredible depth and unmatched talent at the top of the Braves’ prospect class going into the 2019 season, apparently FanGraphs wasn’t too enthused with Davidson’s average numbers in High-A Florida the previous season.
The prospect guys there dropped him down to No. 20 and bumped his FV grade down to a 40, citing his stuff and command had taken a step back.
Regardless, the Braves tasked Davidson with Double-A Mississippi to start the 2019 season, where he joined a starting rotation that included Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz (traded midseason) and later on a new up-and-comer Jasseel De La Cruz.
Let’s just look at Davidson’s 2019 season by month, shall we…
- April: Davidson and Anderson separated themselves from the very beginning, though the former arguably even more with his elite ability to induce such weak contact. In Davidson’s first month, the lefty held opposing hitters to a .115 AVG while running a stingy 0.95 ERA in 19 innings pitched. Even better, it appeared that Davidson had now fully adjusted to his role as a starter, delivering much more consistent mid-90s velocity with his fastball.
- May: Davidson added strikeouts to the mix, punching out 38 batters in 35.1 innings (9.74 K/9), all the while maintaining his early form of success and posting a .218 BAA and 1.78 ERA.
- June: A month that was by far Davidson’s worst (though, ‘worst’ is used here only because of the high bar he set in his first two months with Mississippi). His numbers were actually more normal through June, including a 3.22 ERA and… oh my… two home runs allowed! (Davidson had only allowed one homer all season before then, but in his first outing of June he gave up two long balls.)
Including his lone start with Mississippi in August, Davidson’s July was a solid step back in the right direction, as he returned to his dominant self. By now, he and Anderson were essentially the face of Double-A’s Southern League, a one-two punch that featured the former’s league-leading ERA and the latter’s first-place K rate. It was time to wrap up yet another minor league level.
- July/August: Davidson made six starts in July (including his lone one in Aug.), striking out 37 in 34 innings (9.79 K/9) while posting a 2.12 ERA. Those last handful of starts ended his and Anderson’s time with Mississippi, as both joined Cristian Pache and Drew Waters on the shuttle to Triple-A Gwinnett, on August 5. Overall, the reliever-turned-frontline starter made 21 starts in Double-A in 2019, striking out 9.9 batters per nine and walking 3.7. His incredible 2.03 ERA there stood as the best in the Southern League, even after Davidson had moved on to better competition.
A change in scenery
Once in Gwinnett, Davidson (and Anderson) joined a starting staff that wasn’t depended upon very often. The Stripers’ lineup was a minor league version of the ’27 Yankees (really, the offense was unreal), where quality-starts delivered by pitchers were almost considered unnecessary.
Still, Davidson contributed with four outings, including a two-hitter in his very first start, lasting five innings and striking out four.
Altogether, his final numbers with the Stripers, of course, came in a small package, but Davidson still managed a 2.84 ERA, though admittedly a much lower K rate (5.7 K/9).
Davidson’s overall 2019 stats (AA/AAA)
- 25 starts, 129.2 innings, 8-7, 2.15 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9
His short stint with Gwinnett was obviously enough for Stripers’ manager Damon Berryhill to use him when it mattered most, as Berryhill went with Davidson in Game 1 of the team’s playoff series versus Columbus.
It wasn’t exactly pretty, but Davidson labored through an 84-pitch outing before a rough third inning ruined his night.
He got the hook in the fourth with an uncharacteristic final line (3.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 3 BB. 3 K) and the Stripers wound up dropping the series in four games.
Giving him some hard-earned loved
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Depending on your view of Davidson, him being ranked No. 4 — immediately behind righty Ian Anderson — in our most-recent Braves’ prospect rankings may raise some understandable questions. As I mentioned in last weekend’s podcast, actual performance weighed heavily on our list.
Although, it would be inaccurate to define Davidson’s high ranking as purely performance-based. The kid made some incredible improvements to both his fastball velocity AND pitch-mix this past season, two incredibly important characteristics that are vital to the success of a rising starting pitcher.
And not only that, Davidson appears to have an extraordinary amount of work ethic, suggesting that more positive strides are just beyond the horizon; look no further than his Twitter account (@tucktuck6), as his page has increasingly morphed into a library of training videos and benchmark velocity achievements.
Consider a couple of the more viral ones (I’ve titled them myself to differentiate each one):
It’s quite obvious Davidson isn’t satisfied with simply reaching Triple-A Gwinnett or having a great 2019 season, nor does it seem like he’s looking at 2020 as just another year; and because of that, I think our rankings rightfully showed some love.
(NOTE: that’s NOT meant to imply that other Braves’ prospects AREN’T working hard as well.)
2020 outlook
Much like his fellow high-ranking colleagues, Davidson still isn’t quite a finished product, and his 19 frames at the Triple-A level provide no realistic indication that he should be. He will almost certainly begin the coming season in Gwinnett, as will Ian Anderson and most likely Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson.
Granted, that doesn’t mean an MLB debut isn’t in the cards for Davidson, as we all know poor performance and an unfortunate streak of injuries in the Braves’ rotation (or bullpen) could just as easily shake things up (we don’t want that, though!).
However, all things remaining orderly, it’s quite reasonable to predict at least three-quarters of Davidson’s season involving him in the Stripers’ rotation.
But what’s exciting is back in late-November the Braves made several adds to its 40-man in order to protect several Rule 5 eligible prospects:
- Tucker Davidson, LHP
- William Contreras, C
- Philip Pfeifer, LHP
- Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP
- Cristian Pache, CF
Davidson’s inclusion among the group above doesn’t necessarily offer much significance (other than that the Braves’ are obviously high on him, which… duh), but it does theoretically mean that he could just as easily be called up to the major league team as someone as hyped as Pache (logistics-wise, of course); something that certainly wouldn’t have been the case without such a strong 2019 season by Davidson.
I’ve never been much of a fan of the sometimes frequent jerking back-and-forth the Braves were once known to do with its prospect or quad-A pitchers, but if Davidson’s performance permits and there’s a need, a September cup of joe in the Braves’ bullpen is a very practical way for both parties to greatly benefit. He certainly has experience with that flavor of pitching.
Of course, that’s entirely dependent on exactly how the Braves view Davidson long term…
One could also declare Davidson as a prime trade chip, especially one who’s able to leave emotion out of their prospect assessments (admittedly, sometimes that’s not me).
If you can overlook how exciting it would be for Davidson to one day pitch in the Braves’ rotation, including him in a blockbuster trade could perhaps pay even more dividends.
Though, some of us have been known from time-to-time as prospect hoarders, and a proposal such as that is out of the question. For me, if it’s the right deal… then it’s certainly an option.
Regardless, Davidson’s huge 2019 season coupled with his apparent gains this offseason, point to a yet another young player that has deservedly enhanced his prospect stock within the Braves’ system.
Next. 2 free agent targets for 2021. dark
The only question now is exactly how far can this new-and-improved version of Davidson climb this coming season? It won’t be long and we’ll absolutely find out.