Ultimately it’s a zero-sum gain: regardless of performance, teams can only commit to 8 position players at a time. The Atlanta Braves could add one, but in so doing would subtract another… because ‘position’ matters.
In a vacuum, it looks like the Atlanta Braves could have one of the best outfields in baseball in a couple more seasons.
Top prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters could join Ronald Acuna Jr. to form a trio in which opponents would almost be forced to hit a homer to avoid an out on any ball hit into the air.
Yet the way things are currently evolving, it’s plausible that the only way this trio sees playing time together might be in a future All-Star game.
In an ideal world, Donaldson does ultimately sign on to return to Atlanta for another 4-ish years, Ender Inciarte plays another 1 or 2 seasons and then Pache and Waters are incrementally brought in to replace Inciarte and the Durkakis platoon.
Both prospects turn into stars and 2 or 3 World Series trophies are snagged in Atlanta between now and 2025. Mazel tov.
The Less-than-ideal scenario
As we learned this morning, bidding for former AL MVP Donaldson is getting to a point where the Braves have to be wondering just how far beyond their comfort zone they might really wish to go… and that has implications down the road.
Something else we’d learned – and have already had hints of over the past month – is that the first Plan B for Atlanta might be to try and sign either Nick Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna as that middle-of-the-order bat option in place of Donaldson.
Yes – they are outfielders and not third basemen (though Castellanos tried that in a previous life).
So if the Braves were to do that and it means third base still has to be pieced together (a different topic), it also means ‘full stop’ on those future OF plans.
Any deal involving Castellanos or Ozuna would undoubtedly require a minimum commitment of 4 years – maybe even longer.
Of note: Castellanos will be 28 years old in early March; Ozuna turned 29 in mid-November.
If the Braves truly do pursue one of these free agent bats… doesn’t that block one of these youngsters? Furthermore, wouldn’t it be prudent to simply go ahead and trade one?
That’s just unfortunately the way these dominoes fall sometimes… maybe more than ‘sometimes’, even.
The best laid plans don’t come out as expected simply because people have choice, people get hurt, people don’t perform as expected… any number of reasons.
Meanwhile… let’s offer a quick Happy Birthday to Drew Waters who can now legally do a few more things than he could yesterday – hopefully only in moderation. He joins Pache, who hit the 21-year plateau just 6 weeks prior.
Yet Another Variable
This could explain one reason for Atlanta pursuing Donaldson with more fervor than you might otherwise expect: not only could a rival get him, but the first alternate counter-move actually upsets the long-term goal for this team’s outfield.
Ordinarily, it might not matter so much, but there are a lot of folks betting high on the chances for both Pache and Waters for the future, and MLBPipeline, for one, has both listed among their list of the Top 25 prospects overall.
That clearly has value and as the Braves have come this far with them, it would be nice to see them realize their potential… never mind refilling their own youngster pipeline with solid performers who would have 6+ years of control at low costs.
But this is just another variable to throw into the equation – that the choice of an outfield corner bat today would impact choices that could be made over a majority of the next decade.
Reason #482 why I do not envy the job of an MLB General Manager.