The first of a series of posts to evaluate the teams that the Atlanta Braves will face the most in 2020. This checks in on the Philadelphia Phillies.
In 2019, the Atlanta Braves opened the season by getting thrashed by these Phillies in a 3-game set.
After May 29th, these Phillies stood in first place with a 33-22 record. After that, the fade began which led to a final record of 81-81 and a 4th place finish.
Last off-season, the Phils made 3 big additions in Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Andrew McCutchen. While things obviously started well, it wasn’t sustained, particularly after McCutchen went down for the season with a knee injury.
This off-season? Just 2 significant moves of note… and the hope for better results from the rest of their roster.
Notable transactions to date:
DEPARTURES
- OF Corey Dickerson
- RHP Juan Nicasio
- LHP Drew Smyly
- INF Sean Rodriguez
- RHP Pat Neshek
- RHP Jared Jughes
- LHP Jason Vargas
- 2B Cesar Hernandez
- 3B Maikel Franco
TRADES
- LHP Cristopher Sanchez acquired from Rays for 2B Curtis Mead; Sanchez added to 40-man roster
CLAIMS
- RHP Trevor Kelley from Red Sox
- 2B Vimael Machin from Iowa Cubs (immediately traded to Oakland for cash)
SIGNINGS (Major League Roster)
- RHP Zack Wheeler
- SS Didi Gregorius
COMEBACKERS
- RHP Jake Arrieta
- LF Andrew McCutchen
NOT COMING BACK
- RHP David Robertson
OTHER
- RHP Jerad Eickhoff outrighted to Lehigh Valley
- RHP Mike Morin outrighted to Lehigh Valley
Headliners
The Phillies have made 2 notable splashes, in adding to their rotation with free agent Zack Wheeler and solving – briefly – a hole on the left side of their infield with Didi Gregorius.
Along with the addition of this pair, a lot of their hopes will be pinned on having bounceback years from injured teammates that had difficult seasons due to injuries in 2019:
Jake Arrieta – 136 innings with increasing walks, homers, ERA (4.64) and ending in injury (elbow bone spur)
Andrew McCutchen – ACL tear (left knee) early in June. This single event arguably killed the Phils’ 2019 season, despite the presence of both Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto in that lineup. He should be back in action for Spring Training… at least at some point.
The player who won’t be coming back is reliever David Robertson, who went down in mid-August with an elbow injury that required a UCL replacement – the Tommy John surgery.
Robertson highlights the risk plight of teams trying to get impact pitching: he was signed to be their closer, and will almost certainly end up throwing under 7 innings total for the Phillies once his current contract – 2 years and $23 million – expires after the 2020 season.
Between Wheeler, Gregorius, Arrieta, and McCutchen though, there is optimism in Philadelphia that the team might have some better luck to have some productive upgrades (whether internal or external) to improve on a team that was in first place prior to the McCutchen injury last season.
Part of the optimism simply involves new Manager Joe Girardi, who clearly isn’t going to play, though fans seem to believe that his mere presence will improve a club that has had trouble playing well once the last pair of Summers began.
While that may of may not be a factor, there are some practical concerns: the back of the rotation and the bullpen. The Phillies will be able to score often, but they may need their starters to go deeper into games to avoid issues with a bullpen that – on paper – simply can’t compete with the relief pitchers trotted out from rivals Atlanta (for sure) and the Mets (possibly).
If Arrieta is able to throw freely and without pain again this year, then there’s a chance he can at least get his ERA back under 4… which might be enough. That would at least give Philly 3 solid starters along with Aaron Nola and Wheeler.
After that, things become quite a bit more ‘iffy’ with Zach Efflin and Vince Velasquez. That will put a bit more pressure on the 3rd frontline starters to put up ‘W’s given that team’s margin for error will be lessened: even if Nola/Wheeler/Arrieta win every game they pitch, that’s 60% of their games (97 wins).
That won’t happen (and for that matter, Efflin and Velasquez won’t lose all of their starts, either), but it feels like every lost start from the frontliners chips away from that 97, and with their NL East competition, it won’t take that many unexpected losses to sink them toward being a Wild Card hopeful… or a 2nd Wild Card… or out of the running.
Outlook
You can expect a couple of cheaper relievers to get signed in an effort to shore up their bullpen entering February, but their off-season is otherwise essentially complete at this point – and team finances appear to be the driving force behind that.
Because of that bullpen, the Phillies will have to win by scoring early and often while hoping to build enough lead to stave off their opposition.
That doesn’t feel like it will be enough, as vital as bullpens have become in the game now. As a result, there’s a fair chance that they will be running neck-and-neck with the Mets by the time the Fall season begins next year, barring a significant bullpen acquisition near the trade deadline.
Current prediction: 84-76 record, on the edge of the Wild Card race.