It’s actually a plausible scenario that my friend has proposed for the Atlanta Braves to be able to acquire Nolan Arenado from the Rockies… but there’s a serious risk to it.
Why are the Atlanta Braves still waiting for Josh Donaldson to make a decision about his next 3-to-4 years of baseball life? Why aren’t they moving on from him and pursuing other options?
The reason is because there are no perfect solutions here, and the easiest (and best?) one is still to hand Donaldson a hefty check twice a month for a while longer.
Sure – there are other players that are almost certainly available via trade – particularly if the Braves are ready and willing to relinquish top prospects to do so.
But is there “certainly” or “clarity” about that position going forward if you make one of those trades? Do you know beyond reasonable doubt that you’re going to get the kind of production that Donaldson can provide?
There’s one player out there who is rumored to be available that does this, but the bigger question is whether the Braves would see that same kind of production if they went ‘all in’ for… Nolan Arenado.
In his most recent ‘mailbag’ piece, Fred Owens painted a compelling scenario on how the Atlanta Braves could – and should – acquire Arenado from the Rockies. The package would include a combination of cash and prospects along this line:
- Arenado plus $7 million from Colorado annually for 5 years, $5 million for year 6: $40 million total
- Austin Riley to the Rockies (makes sense: he would be blocked by Arenado for the duration)
- Catcher William Contreras
- Multiple pitchers, likely including arms like these (take 2 from this column):
Fred noted that the Rockies would (rightly) request Ian Anderson first, but could be steered away via these other names above.
I personally would expect they’d demand Drew Waters or Cristian Pache in this deal, too (especially given their outfield)… but the Rockies would probably settle for 4 solid prospects from those named here. All together, this seems like a deal they’d go for.
The upshot from the Braves’ perspective is that this would get Arenado’s salary down to a more palatable $28 million annually. There are a couple of gotchas, though:
- He does have a full no-trade clause
- The Braves would have to demand that Arenado’s 2 year opt-out (following the 2021 season) be dropped or at least moved out for a couple more years.
- He’s a Scott Boras client, so Boras would be driving the boat on how to handle that NTC and the opt-out, so he might counter with a renegotiation demand for some other part of the contract.
- All that said, Arenado signed with the Rockies because he wanted win there. Right now, they are looking to be a long way away from that. He’d thus probably welcome the chance to come to Atlanta.