It’s time for the Atlanta Braves to go big and get greedy
How bold do you want to go? Is it better to have a sustained contention period or to crush the opposition for the next 2-3 years with a real shot at a World Series title?
Major League Baseball consists of a collection of 30 teams that are aimed in 2 distinct directions. The Atlanta Braves are heading in the ‘contention’ direction while in maybe the only division having 4 such clubs.
So in truth, the sport isn’t about trying to beat the other 29 teams… it’s more about beating the 10-12 that are really trying to win.
In the East, the Marlins are clearly not ready to compete. The Mets probably are, but their tactics make that debatable.
In the Central, the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers are a lot closer to having ‘regrouping’ years while the Reds are the only ones actually making noises there. It will be messy.
Out West… it’s still just the Dodgers, really. Arizona and San Diego are trying… but not there yet.
That’s maybe 5 or 6 truly competitive teams in the NL out of 15. So why wouldn’t you ‘go for it’?
The competitive window is wide open. The kids are growing up. Freddie Freeman deserves a ring. It’s time to add. So let’s figure out how Atlanta can do that… and still be able to pay it.
With that in mind, here are 3 specific moves in mind to put the Braves into a position to crush the NL over the next 3 years.
Two Trades, One Signing
The signing is not going to shock anyone: Josh Donaldson.
Right now, it’s a waiting game, but Alex Anthopoulos has made it his mission to be the proactive force this Fall by signing an expensive – though premium – bullpen.
Why are we then stalling on the best offensive producer remaining on the market?
The best guess right now is that the Braves do not currently have the best offer on the table… perhaps he’d already be signed back to Atlanta.
It could be that all parties involved are waiting for ‘best and final’ offers and that the Braves will have the right of last refusal on that best offer.
But seriously: what are we doing here? It’s about 4 years at ____ million dollars apiece, right?
Atlanta gave Donaldson $23 million last year. He was worth that, even with a ‘slow’ start. Frankly, even if you only get 3 great years out of him, you’d get you need on a 4-year pact.
So let’s be that proactive team again: add the extra million or so to be the separator for 4 years and let’s get this done. It’s important to insure that this club is the offensive juggernaut that they will need to be come playoff time.
This isn’t about 162 games… it’s about the next 11 wins after that. So let’s do more…
Trade #1. The Corner Outfielder
Regardless of whether the Braves ultimately land Donaldson, this trade would be the one that solidifies both the outfield and the bench in one swift move.
Trey Mancini of the Orioles was their best offensive producer in 2019… and with a breakout season at that. He turns 28 in March and would be under team control for 3 more seasons… three seasons in which Baltimore has almost zero chance of competing against the Yankees, Rays, and the rest of the AL East.
The Orioles have already dealt Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar this off-season. They are looking for every scrap-heap player they can find to fill out the roster and actively trying to dump their actual talent in the process.
They need prospects with upside and full team control – chiefly pitching – and the Braves can certainly help that out while also saving them the roughly $6 million that Mancini will be making in 2020.
A reasonably balanced offer for Mancini would look something like this:
- Bryse Wilson or Kyle Muller (the answer depends on how far out they’re rebuild is projected)
- Patrick Weigel
- Derian Cruz or Greyson Jenista as wild cards
Is this an overpay? That may well depend on your point of view, but do know that the Braves have prospects to spare and some pitching they don’t have a place for, so there’s reason to add enough to insure that the Orioles take the offer.
In Mancini, you add the potential of another .900 OPS bat (how that would look behind Donaldson!) while solidifying left field for 3 seasons.
It would also allow Atlanta to use Nick Markakis and Adam Duvall as lefty/righty bench bats that would look very strong at the end of the game – even as defensive replacements as required.
While that pair as a platoon isn’t necessarily a feared entry in the regular lineup, having them attack from the bench is a completely different thing.
RHH Mancini, on that subject, actually sports a reverse split: he consistently hits right-handed pitching better than southpaws, so he’d be perfect batting fifth in a Braves lineup that could stymie pitchers coming from either side.
But there’s one more deal Atlanta needs.
Trade #2: Finish the Rotation
Getting Donaldson and Mancini would provide an awesome – and ‘long’ – offensive lineup. Now we need to bolster the rotation to insure that the needed innings are covered.
This is something that has been discussed a lot… and for good reason: LHP Matthew Boyd from the Tigers.
Detroit is probably (slightly) closer to being competitive than the Orioles, but that’s just not going to happen before Boyd’s remaining 2 years of team control expire.
Meanwhile, Atlanta could add a rare third left-handed arm to a rotation featuring Hamels, Soroka, Folty, and Fried as the almost-29-year-old Boyd joins a team with much better defense with his strikeout stuff.
In truth, Boyd doesn’t need to be a Cy Young candidate at all – he just needs to be himself and throw 190 innings as the Braves hit him to double-digit victories.
Boyd has been improving with each season and a move to the NL would position him for a breakout year… particularly with this club.
Detroit would want a lot, but the Braves still have a lot to offer. Here are a couple of ideas as the Tigers might wish to go in a number of directions:
- William Contreras, Sean Newcomb, Tucker Davidson
- They may not need Contreras, so perhaps Jenista instead?
- Kyle Wright, Tucker Davidson, and Jaseel De La Cruz
- Austin Riley and Huascar Ynoa
Boyd is good for 2 more years of control… any of these offers should be enough to move him, but there are many ways to skin this cat.
While their motivation isn’t really about money, doing this deal also saves them around $6.5 million – the contract Boyd would be expected to receive for 2020.
Now What Do We Have
That makes for a maxed 26-man roster of…
POSITION PLAYERS (with a rough lineup)
- Acuna: $1m
- Albies: $1m
- Freeman: $22m
- Donaldson: $23m (est)
- Mancini: $6m
- d’Arnaud / Flowers: (total of) $12m
- Inciarte: $6m
- Swanson: $3.3m
BENCH
- Markakis / Duvall / Camargo / Culberson: total of approx. $10.4m
STARTING PITCHING
- Hamels: $18m
- Folty: $7.5m
- Boyd $6.5m
- Fried: $600K
- Soroka: $650K
RELIEF PITCHING
- Greene $6.5m
- Jackson: $1.9m
- Melancon: $14m
- O’Day: $2.25m
- Smith: $13m
- Martin: $7m
- Dayton: $800K
- Newcomb: $600K (or equally-priced alternative if traded… Walker perhaps)
That’s 26 players that project to roughly $164 million. It’s a stretch, to be sure, but it’s a stretch mainly for 2020 alone.
Heck, as it stands today, the Braves are waiting around for Donaldson to make a decision… this plan would ‘only’ be about $11-12 million above the figure for Donaldson’s cost alone.
In 2021, Melancon’s salary comes off the books. Inciarte would have one more year under contract, but with Cristian Pache knocking loudly at the door, it would be time to move Ender… if not right now.
Shane Greene would be a free agent and so would Hamels, Flowers, and Markakis.
Others would receive further arbitration increases, but the net could be a payroll that’s still better than this 2020 projection… while still having a very solid core to build on.
Of course nobody would worry too much about those numbers if they’re bands are marching down Peachtree by the time the next Halloween Day rolls around.
Alternatives
In any reading of this, understand that there are interchangeable parts available here: specific player acquisitions and specific trade deals are absolutely malleable.
If either Boyd or Mancini is deemed too expensive to acquire, then Pittsburgh might get the next call. They have two players worth moving: Starling Marte and Chris Archer.
Archer is certainly due for a rebound year and perhaps he could be the next pitcher to suddenly improve simply by leaving the Steel City… if he’s indeed fully healthy now. For certain, the Pirates wouldn’t mind cutting the cord on that ill-conceived Rays trade.
Archer is a bit more expensive at $9 million (he has an option for 2021 worth $11 million), but sending Inciarte to the Pirates would be a good way to offset that increase… while also opening the door for Pache.
Marte isn’t quite Mancini, but there’s reason to believe he’d just be happy to get out of Pittsburgh, too. He’s also pricier than Mancini ($11.5m in 2020; add $1m for 2021 on an option), but he should therefore be cheaper to acquire via trade in terms of the prospects offered… another reason to send Inciarte and his $6m in return.
If finances are really tight, then selling off Duvall (and his $3.5-$4m) for a wild card prospect could be done… another Matt Joyce-like bat would cheaply fill that role again.
You could rightly argue that Archer doesn’t overtly project as being any better than Julio Teheran was, but the better upside of Archer has to be considered. In this scheme Archer would slot in as starter #5… and that’s not a bad arm for the backend.
Of course, Boyd wouldn’t need to be any better than a ‘3’ or ‘4’ either.
SOME ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITIES:
- Seager and/or Haniger from Seattle
- Yeah, Kris Bryant is still out there too
- Heck… just take roll of the better players on these ‘Have Not’ teams… there will be players available.
Regardless how you slice it… there are straightforward ways for the Atlanta Braves to stretch a little more for 2020 and really set themselves up for a noteworthy season. Or two. Or three.
There’s even an argument to be made that Donaldson wouldn’t be necessary given the impact these trades might have.
Next. Teheran's off the table. dark
Then again, Braves Country has suffered with being ‘close, but not quite there’ for nearly 25 years now. Some of us didn’t even experience that. We don’t want ‘close’ anymore… we want to crush the opposition.