Atlanta Braves need backup plans to create clarity and certainty at third
As the Atlanta Braves wait for Josh Donaldson to decide where to hang his spikes in 2020, a look at alternatives is in order.
The Atlanta Braves need a fallback plan while they wait for Josh Donaldson to sign somewhere. The Cubs seem to want the Moon and a small planet for their superstar third-baseman, and other players may not have a for sale sign around their neck.
As Alan pointed out this week, Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is currently very focused on ‘clarity’ and ‘certainty’. If his use of those words were key to a drinking game in San Diego, no one in the city would remain sober long.
There’s some discussion about his definition of clarity and certainty, but for these purposes, I suggest that means he wants to know – not hope or guess or believe it might happen, but know – his third baseman will provide both defense and offense.
He also wants to know the lineup is deeper and stronger than last year with a bench that can step in if an injury happens, so he won’t have to dig around for a defensively sound replacement at a pivotal position. Today I’m focusing on the third base issue and things that appear possible there.
The Winter Meetings broke the free agent log jam if one existed. The next pieces to fall seem likely to come in the form of trades. I don’t expect much to happen before Christmas, but the first week or two in January should provide movement.
It seems appropriate to begin there and leave the backup plans until later… all of this being contingent, of course, on Donaldson choosing a new home outside of the Southeast.
Kyle Seager
In Thursday’s The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal opined ($) that Kyle Seager’s contract no longer looked a roadblock to a potential trade.
Now 32-years old, Seager signed what appeared a very team-friendly contract – seven years and $100M at the end of 2014.
Over the next three seasons, he batted .265/.337/.467/.804, hit 83 homers, posted a .341 wOBA, 119 wRC+, and totaled 12.5 fWAR; nice production in a ballpark that tied for third-best pitchers’ park from 2013 through 2018 and played in a division with Oakland and the Angels who ranked only slightly better for hitters than Safeco.
In 2018 Seager continued to hit for power, popping 22 homers and 36 doubles, but his average dropped to .221 and his OBP to .273. Aside from a small uptick in swinging strikes, all of his key peripherals remained effectively the same. After the season, Seager had surgery on his left hand that kept him on the IL until May 25 of this year.
When he returned to the Mariners lineup, Seager had only 42 minor-league PA, and the rust showed. He struggled to find his groove batting .186/.260/.331/.592 and hitting six homers from May 25 through July 21. His bat reemerged on July 22, in game one of a series against the Rangers.
From that point forward, Seager batted .281/.367/.575/.941, hit 12 doubles, 17 home runs, and posted a 10.5% walk-rate, 17.5% K-rate, a .389 wOBA and 149 wRC+ in 259 PA.
Defensively, DRS doesn’t like Seager. After posting a 15 DRS year in 2016, he had UZRs of 6.8, 6.6, and 6.9 over the next three years.
I’m not a fan of UZR, but this shows how widely divergent defensive stats can look. Baseball Prospectus ($) gave Seager FRAA (fielding runs above average) scores of +20.3, +12.1, +21.5, +7.4, +11.2 and –0.2 from 2014 through 2019.
FRAA values are context-sensitive: plays in a high leverage situation are worth more than plays in a low leverage situation. Excluding 2019 when injuries cost him almost half the season, Seager is a superior defender over his career. When healthy, Seager posted consistent years of 3+ fWAR, touching 5.2 fWAR in 2016.
Seager’s contract calls for $19.5M in 2020, $18.5M in 2021, and has a team option for $15M in 2022. Usually, such an option isn’t a deal killer, but he might be already wearing a different uniform if the contract didn’t make the option year guaranteed if he’s traded.
The cost of adding Seager
In the Rosenthal piece linked above, he suggests that Seager might be willing to renegotiate that clause to get out of Seattle and have a chance to win a ring because the Mariners aren’t going to win before his contract ends.
He also suggests the Mariners would add a good prospect to move the contract or add money to offset some of the cost. Those are both guesses by Rosenthal and could be impacted by the fact that he says ‘multiple teams’ are interested in Seager.
The Giants just swallowed the Zack Cozart contract ($12.7M this year) to acquire the Angels number one pick in the 2019 draft Will Wilson who slots in as the Giants #10 on MLBPipeline today. The Giants sent an undrafted, Rule 5 eligible pitcher to the Angels.
Seager’s contract is bigger and longer than Cozart’s, so the Mariners would have to send a better prospect than Wilson. It might require a pitcher like Logan Gilbert to take all of the Seager contract. Getting a prospect that talented easily offsets the extra contract cost and allows the Atlanta Braves to trade for a big outfield bat using a lesser pitcher as part of the deal.
If the Braves are willing to give Donaldson $20M plus, they have room for Seager’s contract. On the podcast that should go up today, we discuss this in-depth or at least kick it around hard. My fellow podcasters wanted Mitch Haniger in the deal, which changes the whole dynamic. It’s worth a listen.
I’m a fan of a Seager deal if they the Atlanta Braves see Donaldson sign elsewhere. If that happens, the Braves make no other moves for third and decide to let Austin Riley and Johan Camargo fight it out in spring training, they’ll want a backup plan. Herewith, two options for such a plan.
Travis Shaw’s bat redemption?
Travis Shaw made his Major League debut with the Red Sox in 2015 and batted an impressive .270/.327/.487/.813, in 248 PA, with 13 homers, a .348 wOBA, and 118 wRC+, worth 1.5 fWAR. He followed that up with a less impressive 16 homer, .242/.306/.421/.728 line in 530 PA and 88 wRC+ in 2016 and found himself wearing a Brewer hat that December.
As Milwaukee’s regular third baseman in 2017, Shaw had a break-out offensive year, batting .273/.349/.513/.862, belting 31 homers, posting a .361 wOBA, 120 wRC+, and ending the year with 3.5 fWAR.
In 2018 he continued to act as the Brewers’ primary third baseman, and while his OBP remained high, his average and slugging rate dropped slightly as the Brewers challenged for the NL Central title.
Shaw batted .241/.345/.480/.825, hit 32 homers, and finished the season with a .351 wOBA, 119 wRC+, and 3.5 fWAR. When the calendar flipped to 2019, Shaw seemed to lose his mojo at the plate.
Shaw injured his wrist in June of 2018, costing him a few games but never resulted in an IL stint.
In April 2019, he re-injured his hand and missed a game. In May, the wrist forced him to the IL for three weeks. After returning on June 4, Shaw played in only 45 games and batted .147/.302/.253/.554.
It seems clear that his wrist injury caused pain when he attempted to hit.
Shaw had two years with well above average DRS numbers (ten in 2016 and nine in 2018)) and three years of solid if unspectacular defense. The Brewers tried to negotiate a contract below his projected arbitration figure of $4.7M, but he turned their offers down, and the Crew released him on December 2.
Shaw was a dependable third-baseman on defense and displayed some serious power in his first two years with Milwaukee. If healthy and still hitting, he’d still be a Brewer. A $4.7M price tag is cheap for a 30 homer bat, indicating Milwaukee had reservations about his ability to bounce back.
He’s young and provides certainty at the hot-corner if he’s healthy, but we can’t be sure his wrist is back to normal based on his performance at the end of 2019. I discussed him in some detail in comments a week or so back, indicating that I’d happily give him a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. I believe the Atlanta Braves would as well.
Let me tell you a story about a man named Jedd
Jedd Gyorko arrived for San Diego in 2013, batted .249/.301/.444/.746, posted a .325 wOBA, and 110 wRC+ in 125 games. Defensively he looked roughly league average everywhere the Padres played him, and where they played him made a difference.
In 2014, the Padres stepped out and signed him to a 5-year contract extension (2015 through 2019) with a 1-year option for 2020 value at $31M). A good deed never goes unpunished, and an early contract extension may bring the same kind of karma.
Gyorko played only 111 games, and his offense sank; he batted only .210/.280/.333/.612 with a .275 wOBA and a puny 77 wRC+.
His downturn likely stemmed from plantar fasciitis in his left foot, which cost him nearly two months of the season. However, Gyorko continued to struggle in 2015, batting .247/.297/.397/.694 in 128 games. In December, the Padres dumped him to the Cardinals for the ubiquitous cash considerations.
The Padres tried to turn Gyorko into a second baseman even though he’d played mostly on the left side of the diamond, The Cardinals liked Gyorko’s positional flexibility, but played him primarily at third base and shortstop. At third-base, Gyorko had one season with a significant DRS (6), but at third, he turned solid into super DRS.
- 2016 – 272 innings, +2 DRS
- 2017 – 900 Innings, +16 DRS
- 2018 – 665 innings, +6 DRS
In 2017 Gyorko earned nine errors at third, five from throwing. In 2018 he earned ten errors at third six from throwing. That sounds awful until I say the Matt Carpenter played first base in both seasons, and Carpenter isn’t a defensive star at any position.
Gyorko suffered a series of injuries in 2019, most notable a back injury that ruined any chance of making a case for a contract after his trade to LA. His history of above-average defense at third and solid production worthy of a look in 2019 as Owen Poindexter points out.
Gyorko is 31 . . . but if he is recovered from his various injuries, there is no need to think that Gyorko’s 2019 represents (the future) . . . Unless he’s broken beyond repair . . . Jedd Gyorko ought to represent a great potential value for any team that isn’t overflowing with infield depth.
Gyorko represents the type of bounce-back candidate Alex Anthopoulos watches for and offers an opportunity. A minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training and Major League incentives could shore up or eliminate any offensive shortcomings from a Riley/Camargo shootout to earn the starter’s job.
That’s a wrap
Seager and Shaw both swing from the left side, only Gyorko bats right-handed. At their best, Seager and Shaw offer 30 homer power, and Seager’s bat looked that good at the end of last year.
None of these players is a four-hole hitter, making the hunt for a right-handed power bat to hit behind Freeman – someone like Starling Marte or Trey Mancini – more important.
Next. No 'Big D' for JD?. dark
I expect Donaldson to decide before Christmas and the Atlanta Braves to react soon after the start of the year. If Donaldson goes elsewhere, then a deal with Seattle for Seager that allows us to add a righty bat must follow. I don’t want to see Travis d’Arnaud hitting cleanup.