Atlanta Braves news after Winter Meetings Day 1
In perhaps a prophetic message, the rare rainfall in San Diego ended early today as the Atlanta Braves mostly watched market grow out of control around them.
The first full day of the Winter Meetings is generally where teams are still getting people settled in and organized. That seems to have been the case with the Atlanta Braves, but others clearly came to start dealing immediately.
The actual news of the days was akin to some of atomic proportions: that Stephen Strasburg has re-upped with the Nationals for the next seven seasons for a total cost that’s at least $245 million… that’s $35 million per year for those of you who didn’t realize there would be math involved in this run-down.
Strasburg deal with #Nationals: $35M per season from 2020 to ‘26, including $11.428,571.43 each year deferred with 1 percent simple interest ($80M total deferred). Per @Joelsherman1, deferrals will be paid in first three years after contract expires.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2019
But wait… there’s more…
Strasburg deal also includes full no-trade clause plus following incentives: $500K for MVP, $250K for 2nd, $150K for 3rd, $100K for 4th, $75K for fifth; same breakdown for Cy Young; $250K for World Series MVP; $100K for All-Star; $100K for Gold Glove; $100K for Silver Slugger.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2019
I’m with Dave O’Brien on this… after a contract that sets pitcher records in both Average Annual Value and total value (at least until later this week), why are incentives even necessary? To keep him interested?
Crazy stuff… but here’s the fallout that we should expect over the next week or so:
- Gerrit Cole is going to be even richer, thanks to either the Yankees (probably) or Angels. The industry estimates now range in the $36-40m annual rate and – since he’s younger than Strasburg – term lengths of 8-9 years. $300+ million is looking likely.
- Madison Bumgarner wants to be slotted in the 3rd position among free agent pitchers this Fall. This tweet came before announcement of the Strasburg agreement.
Teams are being told that free-agent starter Madison Bumgarner is seeking a five-year deal for $100 million-plus.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 9, 2019
Beyond this, the haven’t been many other actual signings… Adam Jones appears to be heading to Japan, left-handed reliever Alex Claudio is going back to Milwaukee, there were a couple of waiver claims (Brewers, Orioles, and Rockies), and the Rangers signed Joely Rodriguez (who is coming back from Japan) for 2 years and $5.5 million.
IN BASEBALL NEWS…
- The (Rule 4 “regular”) Draft is moving to Omaha, Nebraska… site of the College World Series.
- Marijuana is about to become allowable for minor leaguers… a negotiated point as part of an bigger Opioids topic being discussed between MLB and the Players’ Union.
- Honestly, I’d rather see this stay on the banned list for active players, but in certain states now, it would definitely be possible for a player to inadvertently be around someone else using marijuana and thus end up with a positive drug test.
Rumors and Rumblings
MADISON BUMGARNER
With the Bumgarner revelation on Monday (honestly wasn’t a big surprise), we noted that perhaps it might be time to let the idea of signing him go.
Meanwhile, the Giants have (somewhat surprisingly) revealed that they intend to meet with MadBum representatives – even as they are talking about a rebuild by the bay.
On MLB Network Radio, various industry-connected broadcasters were suggesting the Cardinals as a good fit for him… and they’re right.
Jim Bowden suggested that Atlanta is still not ‘out’ on the pitcher, and Jake’s opinion notwithstanding, it’s probably wise to stay involved… almost regardless of the cost.
The trick will be whether a team thinks that Bumgarner’s going to be durable enough for at least 4 seasons out of the next 5 that he’s now likely to sign for… and to properly value his mentoring abilities for the entire crop of youngsters coming up.
Right now, the Braves have Cole Hamels for that purpose… but it’s only for a single year. Adding Bumgarner would make the rotation Soroka, Hamels, Folty, Bumgarner, and Fried.
In a calendar year, you subtract Hamels and add Wright/Anderson/Wilson… somebody in that group. Yes – the cost is high for 2020, but not after that.
Also of note: the free agent pitching market is decidedly soft for a while after this off-season. It could be a ‘now or never’ thing… though the Braves might very well choose “never”.
Still… other priorities are higher on the shopping list, but his price is effectively set… perhaps north of Zack Wheeler and (well) south of Strasburg.
Given what’s taking place now, Bumgarner could very well sign within the next week or so. Known iInterested teams include the Reds, Twins, and White Sox. Others lurking would be the Braves, Angels (especially if they lose on Cole), Giants, Cardinals.
It is believed that he would prefer the National League.
THIRD BASE
In terms of third base in general, the Braves are now said to be “exploring possibilities” for third base. That from Alex Anthopoulos this afternoon.
In more detail…
Gonna start this Tweet again, sans typos:
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) December 10, 2019
Anthopoulos said #Braves still looking to add a big bat -- ideally at third base, but that it could also come in the form of an outfielder.
Also reiterated they want to add a defensive-minded backup shortstop.
That sounds a lot like Alex Anthopoulos isn’t really seeing what he wants to see for third base – whether that’s Josh Donaldson or anybody else.
For those like myself who would like to see Atlanta engineer a big trade deal with Cleveland, it sounds like their focus is not at all on trading Jose Ramirez, but more about how to shuffle their deck:
The Indians' preference is to leave Jose Ramirez at third base in 2020 and find a second baseman. Ramirez told the team he'd play either position. pic.twitter.com/ja54Mfus2T
— Zack Meisel (@ZackMeisel) December 10, 2019
That isn’t the statement (made by Chris Antonetti, Cleveland Indians President of Baseball Operations) of someone who might be in talks to trade their third baseman, is it?
Meanwhile, there’s lots of chatter about Kris Bryant (including a bizarre notion that perhaps they could attach Jason Heyward to a trade deal… not gonna happen), but everyone always ends the discussion with a mention of that pending labor grievance.
“Grievance” is going to be the word of these Winter Meetings… along with ‘Wow’ after each pitcher signs.
3rd Base, Part 2
JOSH DONALDSON
On the Josh Donaldson front, Mark Bowman hasn’t been saying very much so far, but he did opine this on Monday:
Not surprising, but there is growing expectation Donaldson will end up with a four-year deal. One thing to keep in mind is the possibility the DH could be added to the NL after the 2021 season.
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) December 9, 2019
Of note: while there is an expectation that Anthony Rendon may well end up in Texas for the foreseeable future, the Nationals’ structure of Stephen Strasburg’s deal is such that they could entertain the thought of bringing Rendon back.
However, the belief here is that they intend to use their financial flexibility to go after Donaldson.
If the #Braves don't re-sign Donaldson or trade for a similar big bat, to me the risk of the hole it puts in the lineup is magnified by the fact that Donaldson could well end up with a division rival -- the Nats or Phillies -- for the next 3-4 years. That's no small matter.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) December 9, 2019
Yes – a subtraction from your team is magnified when a club that you play 19 times a year gets the identical addition. That has to be part of the math that Alex Anthopoulos is working through.
So far, the Phillies have been quiet… perhaps because they are running up against the luxury tax threshold (or perhaps they are simply waiting for some smoke to clear). Either way, having them not involved in much would be helpful to Atlanta, for things are getting quite expensive on their own merits without outside help.
What the Braves Want
The shopping list was noted earlier:
- Big bat to protect Freddie Freeman (whether at 3B or LF)
- Backup glove-first shortstop
- 3rd baseman
- 26th man… there’s a possible use for a Rule 5 pickup. More on that later today.
So far, the body language of Anthopoulos seems calm and confident. Perhaps he has some ‘feelers’ out… or offers, even. But that’s no indication that things are close:
#Braves' Anthopoulos on possible moves, said nothing imminent or close: "I don't feel like anything has changed from where we were a week ago." But he added that, of course, that could all change with one phone call.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) December 9, 2019
Then again, this is a one-liner he uses often – at least once a year:
#Braves Anthopoulos on trade deadline approach: "There’ll be a sweet spot and it likely comes the last week before the end of the month, where the prices start to come in line... But look, at any time, one phone call, one text, things could start to move." https://t.co/MKd9vhLAKG
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) July 15, 2018
As Alex Anthopoulos told us tonight: "That can change with a phone call." https://t.co/Q2TAUWabVY
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) December 11, 2017
Overall, there has been a lot of excited chatter among broadcasters at MLB Network Radio and that portends a substantial increase in momentum over last season.
Once the ‘big names’ are all/mostly signed, trade activity should pick up quickly. Whether much of that happens this week… unclear and less probable than you might expect. But there will still be another full week before Christmas for things to happen on that front.
Next. No more rainy nights in Georgia?. dark
But this was just Day 1. Clearly things are moving in the market, and that’s good for fans, clubs, and players. Stay tuned.