All was going according to the plan… until somebody decided to take a page out of the Atlanta Braves own off-season playbook.
While we fans were lamenting the loss of Charlie Culberson from the Atlanta Braves roster, that almost certainly wasn’t the most important news of the day.
It was bound to happen eventually, but another team has jumped in and taken a player that they evidently decided was critical to their plans for the 2020 season.
Funny – that’s exactly what the Atlanta Braves have been doing to the rest of the league with the bullpen signings they’ve already made.
But this particular deal is noteworthy for doing three things that may mess up the best laid plans of Alex Anthopoulos.
Let’s take these in order, but first… the news of the day:
BREAKING: Third baseman Mike Moustakas and the Cincinnati Reds are in agreement on a four-year deal, league sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 2, 2019
3. Market Forces… activate
Among the free agent candidates in the third base market, there was a fairly clear pecking order:
- Anthony Rendon (Elite tier)
- Josh Donaldson (would be Elite tier if he was 29½ years old like Rendon… he’s nearly 34)
- Mike Moustakas (Mid-tier; age 31 – I’ve called him ‘Josh-light’)
- Todd Frazier (3rd tier; will be 34 in February)
The expected prices for these players follow those rankings. We’ll get to that in a bit… but here’s the real problem: the Reds didn’t need a third baseman. They’ve got Eugenio Suarez, who just finished a season in which he hammered 49 homers.
Yes: of the clubs with a clear need – Atlanta, Philly, Mets, Angels, Rangers, Brewers, maybe the Dodgers and maybe a couple of others – Cincinnati was not a team expected to be looking for third base help. So what gives??
The Reds going to play Moustakas at second base after non-tendering former Brave Jose Peraza.
Supply? Meet demand… and there’s now a lot more of the latter than the former. That’s the problem here.
There’s a belief out there that Donaldson was going to take his time with sifting through offers and then at some point contact the Atlanta Braves and say ‘Hey – Team X is offering me Y years at Z dollars’. The Braves would match it, there would be a signing ceremony, and all would be right with out world.
Now? That might still happen, but the basic laws of economics in a capitalist, market-driven system tell us that things just got a lot more complicated with 7 or 8 teams now chasing 2 or 3 free agents.
That brings us to problem #2…