Offseason speculation: Blockbuster trades the Atlanta Braves should pursue

The Big Deal.  It’s something we’d all like to see, but they are as rare as … an Atlanta Braves World Series title.

After another thrilling season where the Atlanta Braves unfortunately fell short yet again, it is time for the hot stove to light up.  For this weekend – the busiest shopping days of the entire year – we’ll likewise throw our hats into the General Manager’s ring and try to make some deals.

While it may be a few weeks (or months, if last offseason is anything to go by) before any significant moves occur, at the very least I can speculate a bit to see what could happen if management decides to make an exciting move (Exhibit #1:  the Braves signed Will Smith, which I did NOT expect.).

For this exercise, I decided to use a website called Baseball Trade Values. It assigns each player a numerical value and the closer you get the value for each side to even, the more likely that the trade will be accepted. Let me be clear, I don’t believe this site is the gospel for making trades. I just wanted to use a tool that could give me some ideas.

Last week, most of the MLB site editors from FanSided got together for a week of wheeling and dealing… a condensed simulation version of the kinds of things that could happen in December in San Diego.

You can read about what Fred Owens did for the Braves here, here, here, and here; but for sure, the ‘big deals’ were few and far between – even among these armchair GMs.

Probably the biggest mock trade concocted in this simulation was one that sent Corey Kluber to the Yankees for Clint Frazier, Luke Voit, and Nick Nelson.

For today? It’s the official start of the Christmas season, so let’s think big!  It’s our Christmas wish list!

Out of Left Field

At this point in the offseason, I still have hope that the Atlanta Braves will resign Josh Donaldson. However, in the chance that he signs elsewhere, the team will need a new starting 3rd baseman.

I like Austin Riley, but I don’t believe that he is ready to start at 3rd base quite yet. So, I have an interesting proposition.

The Oakland A’s are one of the more limited teams in the league when it comes to payroll, that is certainly no secret. They bailed on Josh Donaldson after he emerged as a star, because his price tag was going to be outside of their comfort zone – even during the arbitration years.

What if, just if, they could be convinced to trade Matt Chapman before his price gets too high? I know it’s a longshot, but who thought the A’s would trade Donaldson at roughly the same point in his career (just as his arbitration years began)?

This trade would certainly be much costlier for the Braves then the Betts trade, as Chapman will be under team control for a longer time period – 4 seasons.  According to the trade simulator, Chapman would have a value of 126.10.  As a point of comparison, the new NL MVP Cody Bellinger has a ‘value’ of 126.5.

This is going to be expensive.

I decided that a suitable package for the A’s would consist of Riley, Drew Waters, and Kyle Muller. That total package would be valued at about 120 points in the simulator. The simulator says that the deal would be accepted, and I agree with that assessment.

Riley flashed tremendous potential early in his debut last season, as he broke several Braves rookie records. However, after his hot start the league adjusted to him, as it usually does to hot new rookies.

His 18 home runs were impressive, but the .226 average and the .291 OBP tell a different story. I do think he will be able to iron out his issues in the long run, but the Braves would not get to see this improvement if the was traded.

Personally, I would hate to see Drew Waters get traded. He is a great person, and a really talented hitter. However, you don’t get talent like Chapman without parting with quality assets. Waters hit a stellar .309 with a .819 OPS across 2 levels of the minors last year in 134 games.

The only wart in Waters’ offensive game that I can see currently is a lack of power (only 7 homers between double-/triple-A). The current major league ball would certainly inflate that.

Muller would be a bit of a throw in, like Davidson in the previous deal. He is certainly a good prospect (7th in the system), but it’s hard to predict how pitchers will do at the major league level.

Matt Chapman is an incredibly talented player. He is basically the AL version of Nolan Arenado. He has won the gold glove the last 2 seasons, and while he hasn’t quite been Arenado’s equal in offensive production, he does have a solid .841 career OPS in his young career.

Last season he only hit a pedestrian .249, but he had 36 home runs with an OPS of .848. That solid production combined with being the second best defensive third baseman in the league makes him a very valuable cornerstone for any team.

The Prospective Ace

Matthew Boyd was someone who I thought the Atlanta Braves should have tried to acquire at the trade deadline last year. He had a great season in terms of strikeouts (238) but not so good in terms of ERA (4.56) as he had a rough August.

However, I’m willing to look past the ERA because he was on the awful Tigers, whose defense was absolutely abysmal (27th overall by some measures).

The Braves postseason trip convinced me that they need another top of the rotation type pitcher. Mike Foltynewitcz is a decent pitcher, but he has never showed the consistency to be a true number one pitcher.

Mike Soroka is the Braves indisputable ace, but outside of him there isn’t anyone who I truly trust. Adding Boyd to the team can only make the rotation stronger for another trip to October.

The proposed deal:

• Boyd to the Braves
• Johan Camargo, Bryse Wilson, Greyson Jenista, and Braden Shewmake to the Tigers

Camargo is a good player, but he is ultimately expendable on the Braves roster as it is currently constructed.

Wilson has potential to be a great starter, but Boyd would more than fill any hole in the rotation his absence would create.

Shewmake is an intriguing prospect, but he is a shortstop, and while he’s rapidly moving through the system (AA despite just being drafted), I doubt that Dansby Swanson will be going anywhere for a while.

Shewmake was a solid hitter coming out of Texas A&M, but the Braves drafted him a little high for my taste. Detroit needs a shortstop of the future, and he could be a lottery ticket for Detroit as they feel their way through the rebuilding process.

Jenista represents a possible 1B replacement for Miggy Cabrera once his contract finally ends… but that’s still a long way off.  Regardless, this last player should be someone that the Tigers choose who might be a lottery ticket for them.

This cost was high because Boyd would be under team control for the next 3 seasons, until his free agency in 2023. That level of control is certainly attractive to a mid-market team like the Braves (at least they spend like a mid market team).

The Tigers would likely be open to moving Boyd if they received a good enough package, which I (and the simulator) believe this is. If any, though, an overpay might be necessary.

High strikeout pitchers don’t exactly grow on trees, and the Braves don’t have any of them outside of Folty, at least when he’s isn’t at his best.

If the Braves want to win a world series during this current window, they will need to be aggressive in pursuing impact players. Out of all of these deals, I would say the trade for Boyd would be the most realistic.

Hopefully ownership will allow Alex Anthopoulos to keep being aggressive this offseason in the pursuit of a World Series championship.