Offseason speculation: Blockbuster trades the Atlanta Braves should pursue

The one we all want to see

The hot topic this offseason has been whether Mookie Betts will be traded.  Many have speculated that the Atlanta Braves might make a move to acquire him.

Between the high prospect cost this would involve and the fact that Betts will be a free agent after just one more season, there is a lot of doubt that the Braves would make such a move. However, it is one I think the team should make.

Adding Betts to this young, talented roster would only increase the club’s chances of finally breaking out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since the early 2000s. Betts is from the southeast – Nashville, Tennessee to be specific. Who knows?  Maybe he would want to resign if the Braves make a strong enough pitch.

Now, to the details. Obviously, a player of Betts’ caliber would require a sizeable prospect package even with only one year of control left. For this, I “proposed” a trade of Kyle Wright, Wilson Contreras, and Tucker Davidson for Betts.

According to the simulator site, the Braves would be receiving a value of 50 in Betts, and the Red Sox a value of 50.9 for the prospect package. It said that the trade would be accepted by both teams, which makes sense factoring in the limited control Betts has left.

On the Braves side, they are certainly giving up on some exciting prospects. Wright, while he struggled last year, has enormous potential. Contreras is an above average hitting catcher prospect, which are rare to find at the position.

However, Contreras struggled last year Shea Langiliers may in fact the better prospect of the two. Davidson is a decent enough player, but he is certainly more of a ‘throw-in’ for this deal. Do I love giving up on so much potential?  No. However, in order to gain MVP caliber players such as Betts, some sacrifices must be made.

Betts is the former MVP of the AL, and a World Series champion. Any team in the league could acquire him and instantly become better as a result. As he only has one remaining year of control, Betts’ value is probably at its lowest point (though still not really “low” by any means).

His career averages of .301 BA and .893 OPS are absolutely phenomenal. While not on the level of his 2018 season, his 2019 numbers of .295 BA, .915 OPS, 29 home runs, and 16 steals are well above average. If the Braves added him they would instantly become the division favorites, in my opinion.

Out of Left Field

At this point in the offseason, I still have hope that the Atlanta Braves will resign Josh Donaldson. However, in the chance that he signs elsewhere, the team will need a new starting 3rd baseman.

I like Austin Riley, but I don’t believe that he is ready to start at 3rd base quite yet. So, I have an interesting proposition.

The Oakland A’s are one of the more limited teams in the league when it comes to payroll, that is certainly no secret. They bailed on Josh Donaldson after he emerged as a star, because his price tag was going to be outside of their comfort zone – even during the arbitration years.

What if, just if, they could be convinced to trade Matt Chapman before his price gets too high? I know it’s a longshot, but who thought the A’s would trade Donaldson at roughly the same point in his career (just as his arbitration years began)?

This trade would certainly be much costlier for the Braves then the Betts trade, as Chapman will be under team control for a longer time period – 4 seasons.  According to the trade simulator, Chapman would have a value of 126.10.  As a point of comparison, the new NL MVP Cody Bellinger has a ‘value’ of 126.5.

This is going to be expensive.

I decided that a suitable package for the A’s would consist of Riley, Drew Waters, and Kyle Muller. That total package would be valued at about 120 points in the simulator. The simulator says that the deal would be accepted, and I agree with that assessment.

Riley flashed tremendous potential early in his debut last season, as he broke several Braves rookie records. However, after his hot start the league adjusted to him, as it usually does to hot new rookies.

His 18 home runs were impressive, but the .226 average and the .291 OBP tell a different story. I do think he will be able to iron out his issues in the long run, but the Braves would not get to see this improvement if the was traded.

Personally, I would hate to see Drew Waters get traded. He is a great person, and a really talented hitter. However, you don’t get talent like Chapman without parting with quality assets. Waters hit a stellar .309 with a .819 OPS across 2 levels of the minors last year in 134 games.

The only wart in Waters’ offensive game that I can see currently is a lack of power (only 7 homers between double-/triple-A). The current major league ball would certainly inflate that.

Muller would be a bit of a throw in, like Davidson in the previous deal. He is certainly a good prospect (7th in the system), but it’s hard to predict how pitchers will do at the major league level.

Matt Chapman is an incredibly talented player. He is basically the AL version of Nolan Arenado. He has won the gold glove the last 2 seasons, and while he hasn’t quite been Arenado’s equal in offensive production, he does have a solid .841 career OPS in his young career.

Last season he only hit a pedestrian .249, but he had 36 home runs with an OPS of .848. That solid production combined with being the second best defensive third baseman in the league makes him a very valuable cornerstone for any team.

The Prospective Ace

Matthew Boyd was someone who I thought the Atlanta Braves should have tried to acquire at the trade deadline last year. He had a great season in terms of strikeouts (238) but not so good in terms of ERA (4.56) as he had a rough August.

However, I’m willing to look past the ERA because he was on the awful Tigers, whose defense was absolutely abysmal (27th overall by some measures).

The Braves postseason trip convinced me that they need another top of the rotation type pitcher. Mike Foltynewitcz is a decent pitcher, but he has never showed the consistency to be a true number one pitcher.

Mike Soroka is the Braves indisputable ace, but outside of him there isn’t anyone who I truly trust. Adding Boyd to the team can only make the rotation stronger for another trip to October.

The proposed deal:

• Boyd to the Braves
• Johan Camargo, Bryse Wilson, Greyson Jenista, and Braden Shewmake to the Tigers

Camargo is a good player, but he is ultimately expendable on the Braves roster as it is currently constructed.

Wilson has potential to be a great starter, but Boyd would more than fill any hole in the rotation his absence would create.

Shewmake is an intriguing prospect, but he is a shortstop, and while he’s rapidly moving through the system (AA despite just being drafted), I doubt that Dansby Swanson will be going anywhere for a while.

Shewmake was a solid hitter coming out of Texas A&M, but the Braves drafted him a little high for my taste. Detroit needs a shortstop of the future, and he could be a lottery ticket for Detroit as they feel their way through the rebuilding process.

Jenista represents a possible 1B replacement for Miggy Cabrera once his contract finally ends… but that’s still a long way off.  Regardless, this last player should be someone that the Tigers choose who might be a lottery ticket for them.

This cost was high because Boyd would be under team control for the next 3 seasons, until his free agency in 2023. That level of control is certainly attractive to a mid-market team like the Braves (at least they spend like a mid market team).

The Tigers would likely be open to moving Boyd if they received a good enough package, which I (and the simulator) believe this is. If any, though, an overpay might be necessary.

High strikeout pitchers don’t exactly grow on trees, and the Braves don’t have any of them outside of Folty, at least when he’s isn’t at his best.

If the Braves want to win a world series during this current window, they will need to be aggressive in pursuing impact players. Out of all of these deals, I would say the trade for Boyd would be the most realistic.

Hopefully ownership will allow Alex Anthopoulos to keep being aggressive this offseason in the pursuit of a World Series championship.