Atlanta Braves at the faux Winter Meetings Epilogue

Atlanta Braves avoided overpaying in simulated deals

If you’ve ever taken part in an auction, you know that a person’s determination to win can push the price beyond realistic values, that’s what happened with the top three starting pitchers. Here’s how the bidding proceeded for Gerrit Cole.

The Phillies started boldly with seven years and $35M. In retrospect, I might have succeeded had I waited until the last-minute to jump in, but that’s an optimistic and probably inaccurate view.

I went slightly over my self-imposed limit in an attempt to let set the bar high enough to convince others to go elsewhere. I found out later that the Phillies crew had little intention of sticking to anything resembling a budget until reminded by the Commissioner that realism was required.

Player

Bidder

AAV $MM

YRS

Total Value  MM

Gerrit Cole

Phillies

$35

7

$245

Braves

$32.5

8

$260

Yankees

$34.38

8

$275

Phillies

$36.13

8

$289

The Yankees outbid me anyway, so It made no difference, but even the Yankees didn’t want to go where the Phillies went to get Cole. The odd amount in the Phillies last bid is due to calculating the minimum bid they could make under the rules to win.

Once Cole moved off, the board, I offered Madison Bumgarner a simulated five-year, $90M contract. Zack Wheeler’s offers moved quickly out of what I considered a realistic contract range at that time, and Bumgarner looked the last chance for a deal I could justify to myself. He ended up with a simulated five-year $21M deal with the Yankees that I doubt the real-life Yankees would even consider.

Third base blues

Once I got the go-ahead to open discussions, my first message went to the Marlins, asking about Brian Anderson, in a package built around Austin Riley.  I didn’t hear back that day and in an attempt to cover all bases, reached out to the Diamondbacks about Eduardo Escobar, the Reds for Eugenio Suarez, and the Royals asking about Hunter Dozier.

Had I sent Ender Inciarte to the Reds or Diamondbacks, my search for a third baseman would have been over, but I wasn’t ready to trade him that early, my board had Anderson and Dozier on top and Donaldson next in line.

When the Marlins did respond, I offered a starter along with Riley, but I couldn’t get them to open negotiations. Messages with the Royals brought the same result, although I thought he might start talking at the end. Instead, he stopped answering, and I moved on.

When I pivoted to Josh Donaldson after the pitchers disappeared, I made a strong opening bid.  The Dodgers and Nationals were already on the board, but neither offered four years, and I knew it would take at least that to sign him.

Once I made my bid, it became clear the Dodgers were bargain hunting, as they didn’t get involved again. The Nationals withdrew their bid after signing Anthony Rendon to a simulated seven-year $210M deal that closed before bidding on Bumgarner.

Player

Bidder

AAV $MM

YRS

Total Value MM

Josh Donaldson

Dodgers

20

2

$40

Nationals

25

3

$75

Braves

22

4

$88

Rangers

23.5

3

$70.5

Rangers

26

3

$78

Braves

25

4

$100

The Rangers first offer didn’t meet the minimum bid increase requirement, so they upped their bid just before the anti-sniping window. I caught that and increased my bid, but it was within the snipe area.

The Rangers had one hour to bid again, but they chose not to, and Donaldson became a member of the  Atlanta Braves again on a simulated four-year $100M deal.

Okay, now what?

I knew that none of the free-agent pitchers left fit my idea of at least a two-percent performance increase, that left ‘building a stronger lineup’ as the next option.

Earlier in the process, I’d contacted the Dodgers about Joc Pederson. At first, they were shocked that a competitor would deal with them. I found that odd and assured them I was ready to deal. They replied with a list of names, and I said all but one were available, then they went dark. I found later they had traded Pederson to Cleveland.

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I circled back to a name I’d had on the list for a while without acting on it and contacted the Orioles GM to discuss the possibility of a package including Maikel Franco for Trey Mancini.

I didn’t have Franco, the Phillies traded him to the Tigers in a salary dump, but I believed I could grab him to flip. An offer like this is a pretty common step towards a three-team deal.

The Oriole’s GM said no to Franco and asked about Johan Camargo. Signing Donaldson made Camargo expendable, and as soon as I found Brock Holt remained on the market, I made the trade for Mancini.

Do you want to deal?

I still had Inciarte and lacked a pitcher, but I didn’t see a team that matched up. I received a message from the Padres offering Hunter Renfroe for Inciarte.

That’s a trade I talked about often here, but I didn’t jump on it. Something simple had slipped my mind:  if I traded Inciarte I had Cristian Pache on the 40-man roster in an emergency and could always add an unsigned veteran on a minor league contract later.

Instead, I spent wasted a night trying to deal for Mitch Haniger with a GM who wouldn’t tell me what he wanted.  Trades are not a take it or leave it ultimatums, they consist of negotiations with offers and counter-offers.  If one side won’t at least put you in the right zip code, it’s impossible to hit the target. In the end, it worked out better for the Atlanta Braves anyway.

I wasted more time when I contacted the Cubs after the Haniger talks collapsed.  The Cubs appeared eager to trade Ian Happ, and the switch-hitting utility player with 20 homer power fit my needs. The Cubs could have landed William Contreras for Happ and a pitcher, but they stopped talking. That’s not only bad negotiating, it’s also rude.

About that pitcher

I still lacked two starters to give me five dependable arms to start the season.  I had a rebound candidate in mind for the fifth spot and a backup name in case my primary target signed elsewhere. As you’ll know from my last post, Jordan Lyles remained available and filled that fifth spot in the rotation.

I contacted the Pirates about Joe Musgrove, and a genuine discussion ensued. I had asked about Gregory Polanco as well, and the sim-Gm wanted to move him. He wasn’t as keen on moving Musgrove.  As the process went on, I received word that I no longer had a trade partner for Inciarte, so I told the Pirates my focus was Musgrove.

I offered him a package of players, two of them he’d expressed interest in earlier. He started to dither about it, and I knew that I’d give him two starters to begin with, so I made the offer, he felt like a winner, and I paid what I expected to pay in the beginning.

The longest negotiation

As I said earlier, getting the details of a trade right often takes longer than agreeing on the concept. Such was the case with the Atlanta Braves simulated acquisition of Teoscar Hernandez and Kendal Williams from the Blue Jays in exchange for Ender Inciarte and Corbin Clouse.

On Saturday before the meetings began, I contact the Blue Jays sim-GM, inquiring about Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and found him unavailable, that’s when the Jays first offered me Hernandez for Inciarte.

I immediately liked the idea but hesitated because I wanted to make sure our center field defense remained solid. Fast forward five days to the inquiry about Inciarte that led me to engage the Mariners about Mitch Haniger, the Pirates about Polanco, and the Cubs about Happ.

On Saturday morning, the Blue Jays confirmed the deal for Justin Schafer and said, “If you want to trade Inciarte, I’d still like to make that deal for Hernandez.”  I waited way too long for the Cubs then decided Hernandez looked a better option and contacted the Blue Jays sim-GM to say I’d send Inciarte to Toronto for Hernandez and Reese McGuire.

The Jays said not to McGuire and offered my choice of two other catchers, both solid options. I still had Contreras and Shae Langeliers and wanted McGuire as an immediate depth piece, so I started asking about other players.

He made offers, and I made counteroffers, the back and forth wen ton for about four hours before we finally settled on the deal I wrote about earlier. That’s the way deals are done.

Money matters

The final accounting for the Atlanta Braves simulated roster shows 35 players and payroll for the 26-man portion of $134,634,375 and a Competitive Balance Tax amount of ~$159M.

That’s a wrap

I always enjoy the mock meetings; it’s a chance to find out what others think of their team – no one is 100% happy – and how they value their players… usually too highly.

I try for realism while acting as Atlanta Braves sim-GM, at least as far as others will allow it. Several people made this iteration fun, so in no particular order, I’ll send my thanks to, Drew Koch (Reds), Scott Boyken (Arizona), Jake Mastroianni (Padres and Nationals), Chris Henderson (Blue Jays), Noah Yingling (Indian’s), and Zachary Engberg (Athletics).

Every year Alan Carpenter and Colby Patnode shoulder the extra burden of managing and herding all of us mice as we stumble towards apotheosis.  A special thanks to them for keeping it going when many would run away.