Braves: 4 more moves to complete a great offseason
We look at four more moves Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta Braves can make this offseason to put to a cap on a great winter.
Alex Anthopoulos went full assassin and signed the best free agent reliever on the market in Will Smith setting the stage for a huge offseason for the Atlanta Braves.
You certainly don’t make that move unless you plan to do big things this offseason … or at least we certainly hope that’s the case.
Relief pitcher wasn’t even an area we expected AA to upgrade this offseason and he’s already made two moves to improve the bullpen with Smith and Darren O’Day.
He still needs to — potentially — find someone to replace Josh Donaldson at third base (if not Donaldson himself), find someone to pair with Tyler Flowers at catcher, and hopefully find a frontline starter.
And my own personal hope that I’ve been pushing for this offseason is to find an upgrade in the outfield over the possible platoon of Nick Markakis and Adam Duvall.
As our own Alan Carpenter speculates, after the Will Smith signing the current budget sits at around $102 million for 2020.
Assuming that the total budget for 2020 will be $140, and AA will likely keep $10 million available during the season, that leaves $30 million left.
In order to complete the four moves I’m going to talk about, we’ll first need to find a way to free up some money.
So there are two pretty easy moves the Braves can make to free up some salary.
The first is trading Ender Inciarte, which is pretty obvious. He’s set to make $7.7 million in 2020 and should have a pretty good market this offseason.
Like I have to say every time I mention trading Ender, I love him, but he’s expendable for the Braves. I think Cristian Pache can start the season in center and be just as good.
Or Ronald Acuna Jr. could start the year in center with Markakis/Duvall in right until Pache is ready.
The other move is either non-tendering or trading Shane Greene — preferably a trade. I think Greene will have some value as a trade candidate and should have plenty of interest.
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With Smith on board, Greene is a bit expendable. I’d love to move the Mark Melancon contract ($14 million) but that doesn’t seem likely.
Those two moves (assuming we trade those two for prospects and don’t take on a Major League contract) could save close to $14 million.
They could also trade or non-tender Adam Duvall and save almost $4 million.
That puts our new 2020 budget at $88 million and sets us up for four big moves to create a World Series contender in 2020.
Starling Marte
I’m going to keep beating this drum until I can’t anymore, but I really want the Braves to get a big bat in the corner outfield this offseason.
And the name that I’ve been all over this offseason is Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte.
There could be a better option out there (not named Mookie Betts), but I honestly haven’t looked into it enough.
There aren’t any free agent outfielders that intrigue me, so if they are going to pick up an outfielder it will likely be in a trade, and I’m just not sure what all outfielders are available at this point.
Marte is definitely someone who should be available as the Pirates look to rebuild with their new front office.
The 31-year-old outfielder is under team control for two more seasons making $11.5 million in 2020 and he has a $12.5 million team option in 2021.
He could be another huge bat in the lineup and he was a Gold Glove defender when he played left field in 2015 and 2016, which is where he would play with the Braves.
To make this happen the Braves will probably have to trade Ender to free up some money.
My ideal outfield going into 2020 would be Marte in left, Pache in center, and Acuna in right.
We’re not going to get in what it might cost to get Marte (I’ll get into that later in a mock trade article), but I’m not thinking it would take a ton to land him.
Willson Contreras
Ever since the rumors started about Willson Contreras being available he has been mentioned as a possible trade target for the Braves.
Unlike Marte, I think it will take a king’s ransom to land Contreras, and I think the Braves should pay it.
Contreras is 27-years-old and is under team control for three more years through arbitration.
He’s expected to make around $4 million in his first year of arbitration in 2020.
In back-to-back seasons he’s been an All-Star, and in only 105 games in 2019 he hit .272 with 24 home runs and 64 RBI.
As much as he rubs me the wrong way a lot of the time with some of his antics, I can’t deny that he’s one of the best catchers in the league.
And if the Cubs are willing to part ways with him, I hope the Braves are first in line.
He would be a great fit in Atlanta, and most importantly, it would push Flowers into a back-up role where he belongs.
And Willson’s brother is already in the Braves system and could be up in a year or two. How awesome would that catching tandem be?
This one seems like a longshot, but this is one where the Braves need to be aggressive and make it happen.
Anyone besides Ian Anderson and Pache should be available in a trade for Contreras.
Mike Moustakas
I know a lot of you wanted to see Josh Donaldson here, so don’t be disappointed.
The longer the offseason goes, and the more teams that are linked to Donaldson, the more I feel like he won’t be coming back to Atlanta.
And I’m OK with that.
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Mike Moustakas is likely going to cost less than half of what Donaldson is going to get this offseason, and Moose has been a very productive player.
MLB Trade Rumors predicts that the 31-year-old Moustakas will get a two-year deal for $20 million this offseason.
Sign me up.
FanGraphs had Moustakas as a 2.8 WAR player in 2019 and 2.4 in 2018. His best season came in 2015 with the Kansas City Royals when he accumulated a 3.8 WAR.
And I get it, Donaldson was a 4.9 WAR player in 2019 and has been as high as 8.7, but there’s nothing wrong with a 3 WAR player at third base.
Moustakas could be even higher with a move back to third base where he’s a very solid defender, as opposed to second base where the Milwaukee Brewers had him a lot in 2018 and 2019.
The more I think about it, the more I’m loving the money saved by going with Moustakas over Donaldson.
But it only makes sense if the Braves use the money saved to get a frontline starter…
Zack Wheeler
It’s time for the Atlanta Braves to go out on a limb and sign a frontline starting pitcher in free agency.
I can’t think of the last time they spent big money on a frontline starter (Derek Lowe? … I kid, I kid).
And Dallas Keuchel on a one-year deal doesn’t count either.
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Zack Wheeler is someone who could lead the Braves rotation along with Mike Soroka for the next four or five years.
MLB Trade Rumors has him signing a five-year deal for $100 million, which is an AAV of $20, so it’s not like that would break the bank.
And people tend to think Wheeler hasn’t been as consistent because of injuries, but he’s thrown 182.1 and 195.1 innings in the last two seasons respectively.
Those injuries could help him be more fresh at the end of his career (wishful thinking) as he’s thrown 749.1 Major League innings in the last seven season (he missed all of 2015 and 2016).
Maybe Wheeler isn’t the guy, but the other moves should leave enough space for the Braves to get a frontline starter and spend around $20 million a year on a pitcher.
As far as free agents go, outside of Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole, Wheeler is my top choice.
It would cost the Braves another draft pick, but in this scenario, they get a pick back with Donaldson signing elsewhere so in the end they just lose one.
Lineup and Payroll
Going based on MLBTR’s arbitration and contract predictions, these four moves (and the moves to trade Inciarte and Greene) would put the total payroll for 2020 around $135 million.
That leaves some flexibility for AA to make some moves during the season as well.
What could this potential lineup look like?
Projected Lineup:
1. Acuna
2. Ablies
3. Freeman
4. Marte
5. Contreras
6. Moustakas
7. Swanson
8. Pache
9. Pitcher
I don’t know how you guys feel about it, but I am in love with that lineup. That is a very deep lineup that can definitely contend in the postseason.
And you would have Johan Camargo, Charlie Culberson, and Markakis on the bench.
What about the starting rotation?
Projected Rotation:
1. Soroka
2. Wheeler
3. Fried
4. Folty
5. Newcomb/Wilson/Wright
I’m still not thrilled with that rotation. I would love it a lot more if the Braves could afford to get another veteran to eat some innings.
Maybe Julio Teheran comes back for $5 million or less. Or maybe they can get Cole Hamels on a one-year deal for less than $10 million.
That rotation just has a lot of question marks, and it could be great, but I hate going into the season hoping on ‘ifs.’
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What do you think about these four moves? Is this doable, and is does it make the Braves World Series contenders in 2020? Let us know in the comments below.