Don’t miss this… the Atlanta Braves have essentially declared to the baseball world that they won’t settle for anything less than a frontline starting pitcher.
All of the right words were said on Monday when the Atlanta Braves announced that they were declining the $12 million final-year contract option for longtime starter Julio Teheran.
The words involved how well he had performed for the team over his career and that this action wasn’t “closing the door” on a continued relationship.
Yeah… not likely.
When you look at the aggregate numbers, this contract decision is actually a fairly bold move.
The Braves have chosen to part ways with a pitcher who…
- Is just 1 of 4 in all of baseball with 30+ starts in all of his last 7 seasons.
- He’s also the youngest of those 4
- He’s also the youngest of all pitchers with 30+ starts in just 5 of the past 7 seasons (17 such pitchers exist).
- Has thrown 174+ innings in every one of those years (2013-19).
- Exceeded a 4.00 ERA just twice in that span (he’s one of 30 starters who have done this)
- Only costs $12 million in 2020
For all of the frustration Braves fans have endured with Teheran at times, these are difficult numbers to ignore… and yet the Braves apparently could not even find a team with a sufficient pitching deprivation level to be a trade partner at that price level.
Thus the option year was declined.
That’s not the kind of situation that portends the possibility of an amicable reunion down the road this Winter.
It also puts the Braves on watch for whatever they intend to do from here with the pocketed differential of $12 million now available for 2020 (the result of Teheran’s 2019 salary plus his $1 million contract option buyout).
In total, that’s $16 million now that is technically freed up for 2020 after Teheran’s departure and the accounting shuffle for Nick Markakis and Tyler Flowers.
It’s a start… and now the Atlanta Braves have put themselves in the interesting position of being forced to replace those innings.
Could this be done internally? Maybe, but when that question is asked, it means that you’re counting on some combination of Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, Sean Newcomb, or Touki Toussaint to fill two rotation positions.
Can that be done? It’s possible. But should a team that has expectations and designs on defending a division title for a 3rd year in a row go into the season rolling those dice?
That’s unfortunate for these youngsters, for their time to prove that they belong in the majors will likely be limited to stints at Gwinnett. But for the major league club, it means that they will have to acquire at least one – if not two – major league arms this Winter.
More to it Than That
When you choose to dump a pitcher like Teheran, it makes a statement. In this case, it’s not really “we think you’re terrible and should re-consider your life choices”. No, instead, by doing this the Braves are saying “we can do better.”
In this case, ‘better’ means that they are looking to either make a big splash for a free agency pitcher or (possibly) a big trade for a mound stud.
Is $16 million enough for that? No… it’s really not.
Then again, it’s really more than that: make that number $29 million when you account for the pro-rated contract Dallas Keuchel completed in October.
On Friday, Atlanta also saved some money: re-signing Darren O’Day at $6.75m less than his 2019 salary… now we’re $35.75 million under the 2019 pace.
This is now in a territory that is much more interesting… and we haven’t even touched the $23 million budget line that had Josh Donaldson’s name attached last season (a line that the Braves hopefully can re-attach his name to).
There’s already been one bit of open speculation or hearsay or some such scuttlebutt this week: that Madison Bumgarner might be a target.
Okay…while he’s different from Julio Teheran, ‘MadBum’ doesn’t necessarily feel like someone who is definitively better.
He might be – especially if you think his 2019 performance (3.90 ERA) was a fluke, and there is reason to believe it, no doubt: but it’s a tough call as he rounds the age 30 bend.
It’s still early November and very early in the off-season process. We will continue to hear more about WAR and rumors of WAR on virtually every available starting arm and some possible connection to the Braves.
But it seems certain: the Atlanta Braves are going to try to do something pretty significant for their rotation. After Teheran was excused… they will have to.