Atlanta Braves minors: 5 biggest offseason storylines

It’s a long offseason, so let’s discuss a few talking points regarding the Atlanta Braves minor league system, as well as its prospects.

It’s an awkward time for Atlanta Braves fans. The grief and anger from the team’s postseason elimination has all but passed, as we now shift to the endless amounts of speculation regarding free agency, team options, trades, budgets, and the many facets of baseball fandom in the offseason.

For me, all of this uncertainty regarding who’s staying, who’s going, and what’s going to happen has made it rather difficult to assemble my random and sporadic ideas. There are just so many decisions to be made this winter.

• What will the team do about the catching situation?
• Will they sign Josh Donaldson?
• Will they pick up the options of Nick Markakis and Julio Teheran?
• Is there a plan for acquiring a frontline starting pitcher?
• Can we still wave our tomahawks?

For the last few weeks, the Tomahawk Take staff has done a great job of trying to answer some of those questions, as well as review the numerous storylines from a solid 2019 season.

But there’s one topic or end-of-the-year storyline that’s pretty easy to discuss, and that’s the Atlanta Braves farm system. It’s not going anywhere any time soon, and once again… it’s going to be a great one next season.

Unlike the big leagues, the minor leagues don’t have near the turnover — nor is there much drama from year-to-year.

The organization has it’s top prospects, and other than blockbuster trades, those prospects don’t usually go anywhere.

Immediately after the 2019 minor league season ended, I wrote end-of-season recaps for every Atlanta Braves’ minor league team; a way to highlight each club’s season, including team and player stats, as well as a general overview of the top performers from each roster.

That recap series focused more on the results of the teams and players, and less on the actual outlook of the entire Braves’ farm system as a whole.

There’s an entire offseason to discuss and predict how each Braves’ prospect will perform and what kind of situations will appear, but this piece will serve as a list of potential stories or narratives to think about, regarding Braves’ prospects and its farm system as a whole.

Let’s talk prospects!

5. Hitters are making a comeback

For an organization that prides itself in wielding one of the deepest and most prolific classes of prospect pitchers, I’m afraid the upper realms of the Atlanta Braves prospect rankings has begun to shift in the last few years.

The Braves ended yet another season with a top-10 prospect class in 2019, now ranked No. 6 on FanGraphs’ THE BOARD and worth a whopping $249 million in prospect surplus.

Yes, the foundation of the Braves organization is strong pitching and defense, but talented position-player prospects are now on the rise, and frankly, have been for a few years now.

But just be aware that there’s more to the Braves’ farm system then top-shelf starting pitchers and flamethrowing relievers — the times are changing.

Consider the current state of the Braves’ top-ranked prospects, compared to the end of the 2018 season. While pitchers are still pacing the rankings list, position-players are making a decent sized push, increasing by almost 8 percent since then:

Currently, 14 of the ranked Braves’ prospects (31 total) are position-players (45.1%); while at the end of the 2018 season, 11-of-33 were position-players (33.3%).

At the beginning of 2017, you had Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna Jr. leading the Braves’ prospect class; last season it was Cristian Pache and Austin Riley as the organization’s Nos. 1 and 3 (Mike Soroka was ranked No. 2); and at the moment the class is led by Pache (13th in all of baseball), Drew Waters (21st), and catcher William Contreras.

Even more, the Braves spent its first two picks in the 2019 MLB Draft on highly-touted position-players Shea Langeliers (catcher) and Braden Shewmake (shortstop), with both players ranked 8th and 10th on the Braves’ current list, respectively.

Going back to the dynamic outfield duo — Pache and Waters — there are no Braves’ position-player prospects closer to the majors than those two.

The pair of 20-year-old outfielders just got done posting crazy-good numbers in 2019, ascending to Triple-A Gwinnett in the process:

• Pache: 130 G, .277 AVG, .802 OPS, 12 HR, 36 doubles, 9 triples, 8 stolen bases
• Waters: 134 G, .309 AVG, .819 OPS, 7 HR, 40 doubles, 9 triples, 16 stolen bases

Pache made great strides in the plate discipline department, wrapping up the 2019 season in Gwinnett with a much better 17.1 K%, rather than the 25.7% rate he finished with in 2018 while with Mississippi.

Waters was so great in Double-A Mississippi (.847 OPS / 35 doubles) that he won the Southern League MVP award, not to mention an invite to play for the United States in the upcoming Olympics (which he accepted).

And it wasn’t just the top two prospects making waves this season for the Braves:

• Catcher Alex Jackson (No. 9) belted 28 home runs in just 85 games for Gwinnett, after hitting only eight homers in 99 games in 2018.
• Outfielder Trey Harris (No. 24) soared up the proverbial ladder of the Braves’ organization, playing for three different clubs in 2019 — is also currently playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League — and hit .323 with 14 home runs and 26 doubles in 131 total games.
• As I mentioned above, Shewmake hit the ground running and had a nice pro debut himself, hitting .318 (151 wRC+) in Single-A Rome for 51 games before slowing down a bit in Double-A Mississippi.

And there are even some lower-level guys that obviously have a ways to go, but performed extremely well in their first taste of pro ball: Two 18-year-old hitters, outfielder Michael Harris (No. 17) and infielder Vaughn Grissom (No. 18).

Sure, these are prospects, and while the odds are high that at least a few of these players will later morph into quality major league contributors… it’s still quite a fickle process.

4. Next batch of pitchers need to ascend

It’s time for another Mike Soroka. In 2015, the Atlanta Braves chose Kolby Allard (14th overall) and Soroka (28th), as well as reliever A.J. Minter, in the second round (75th).

Allard is of course gone, and Minter doesn’t look to be in the future plans after basically a lost season in 2019.

But Soroka is coming off a major league season in which he was the Braves’ frontline starter — the No. 1.

Since that draft, the Atlanta Braves have loaded up on pitching talent, more specifically starting pitching, selecting Ian Anderson (Braves’ No. 3 prospect), Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller (No. 7) in 2016; and Kyle Wright (No. 4) in 2017.

It’s time for one of those four pitchers to step up and prove capable of providing the Braves important innings in 2020. Anderson, Wentz, and Muller all had impressive 2019’s, while Wright took a small step back.

I wouldn’t be surprised if all but Wentz (traded to Detroit) started off the 2020 season in Triple-A Gwinnett, with Wright on speed dial ready to shuttle to Atlanta at any moment (of course depending on what the Braves do about its major league starting rotation this offseason).

And that’s not even counting Bryse Wilson (No. 5) or Tucker Davidson (No. 14) or Jeremy Walker (No. 22)… or even Patrick Weigel (No. 22).

Wilson and Walker got some major league innings in 2019 (as well as 2018 for Wilson), though not much.

You could say — even though we’re talking small samples — Wilson also took a step back in 2019, as he posted a 7.20 ERA in four starts and two relief appearances for the Braves. That after a 6.43 mark in three total games in 2018.

Walker only made six major league appearances in 2019 (9.1 innings), but he was very sharp and held a 1.93 ERA while a Braves’ reliever.

The other two are right there as well, though they aren’t talked about as much.

Davidson was the ERA leader in Mississippi last season (2.03) before posting a 2.84 mark in four starts with Gwinnett.

And Weigel — who was coming back from Tommy John surgery — basically matched him (though in far fewer innings), holding a 1.72 ERA in Mississippi (7 starts) and a 2.98 in Gwinnett (11 starts / 10 relief appearances).

If you’ve lost count, that’s eight pitchers — seven starters and one reliever (well, Walker was a reliever last year but made 26 starts in 2018). That’s a nice group of pitchers that are literally so close to having it figured out.

I’m not saying ALL of them should be major league ready in 2020, but at least one or two needs to separate themselves from the pack.

In all likelihood, the Braves will at least attempt to acquire one starting pitcher from free agency or through a trade.

But regardless, there needs to be a couple of guys the team can turn to in case of injuries or just plain ineffectiveness from the original starting five.

The Atlanta Braves were pretty lucky in 2019 when it came to starting pitching health… they might not be so lucky in 2020.

And not just that… some of these pitchers have been right there for two seasons now. Wilson and Wright — they don’t need Triple-A innings anymore, they need major league innings.

And the only way that’s going to happen is if they prove they’re capable … and in a hurry.

3. New MLB roster rules are coming

Starting next season, September roster expansion (as we know it) will no longer exist. Rosters during the regular season will simply extend from 25 to 26 active players and after August 31 teams are permitted to expand to 28 players, as opposed to the 40-man active rosters in seasons past.

I’m sure you know where I’m going with this, but it’s a situation that doesn’t help aid in the potential of us seeing Cristian Pache and/or Drew Waters in Atlanta this season. And it’s not just Pache and Waters… it will make promotions more difficult for others as well.

Contrary to how it has always been done, the Atlanta Braves won’t be able to load up on players during September, which means the organization will have to be much more stingy with who they choose to promote to the active roster (these changes do not impact the 40-man roster).

It’s not just changes to the number of active players, either. In 2020, there will be new rules regarding relievers and how teams are permitted to use them.

Pitchers will be required to face a minimum of three batters in a given appearance. Also, position-players will be prohibited from pitching in 9-inning games unless their team is ahead or behind by eight runs.

Just those two rules alone will greatly impact the way teams set up their bullpens. Teams will also have to make sure they have plenty of pitchers to handle blowout-type games since they won’t be able to use position-players to eat up meaningless innings.

That means a more conscious effort to keep up fresh arms at the big league level, which very well may negatively affect the promotions of Pache and Waters.

However, if either of the two superstar prospects post numbers similar to last year, I’m not sure the Braves will have a choice but to bring them up.

1. Some of your favorite prospects will be traded

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I’m not sure you could say with certainty that this season is any different than any other season, in terms of the possibility that a few Braves’ prospects get moved. A lot of the same guys are right where they were last season.

However, given that the Atlanta Braves’ major league roster appears to have more spots to fill compared to this time last year, we could see more ranked prospects involved in trades this offseason.

We will discuss this more as the offseason progresses, but let’s look at a few Braves’ prospects that may be part of a deal this Winter or even during the 2020 season (these aren’t deals that I necessarily like, but ones that could happen):

3B, OF, Austin Riley: While he surpassed his prospect status in 2019, playing in 80 games for the Atlanta Braves, the real possibility that Josh Donaldson signs a pact with the Braves could very well make Riley’s services redundant… especially if the organization keeps Johan Camargo.

SP, Kyle Wright: Whether we think it’s RIGHT or not, the Braves may feel that Wright just doesn’t have what it takes, as he currently has a 7.71 major league ERA (4 starts / 7 relief appearances). Trading Wright this offseason wouldn’t be the wisest move (big time sell-low), but as a former 1st round pick, the Braves may try and see if another team’s interested in fixing him.

SP, Bryse Wilson: Same scenario as Wright above. Wilson hasn’t exactly impressed thus far in the majors and the Braves may feel like it’s now or never if they’re going to try to squeeze any value out of his current prospect-rank. I personally don’t like the idea of trading Wilson, but I’m also not a decision-maker in the Braves’ front office.

One of Drew Waters or Cristen Pache: Yes, I have instantly made a lot of people angry, but hear me out (even though I would be extremely mad if the Braves traded one of these players).

The Atlanta Braves could find themselves in the running for a superstar player (think Mookie Betts or something along those lines) and the asking price could be one of the organization’s top prospects. Would the Braves do it? Would they trade one of its top-two young players? I’m not sure, but it happens all of the time.

OF, Greyson Jenista: A player that would be much more realistic in terms of a potential trade, Jenista (11th ranked prospect), is basically the organization’s fourth-string prospect outfielder behind Pache, Waters, and Trey Harris right now.

The Atlanta Braves also have Michael Harris and Stephen Paolini down in the lower ranks of the minors.

The point is… the organization has a bit of a surplus in outfielders at the moment, and the Braves may try and cash in. Jenista would be a 40+ FV prospect that could beef up an offer.

Calm down

I haven’t heard or read any reports of either of those I’ve listed as possible trade candidates. Those are just a few, given the organization’s current situation, possibilities.

The truth is… the Braves will eventually be forced to trade some of its prospect wealth. That’s just the way it works.

And now that GM Alex Anthopolous has had two full seasons to observe his talent, perhaps he may be a bit more willing to part with some of these more highly regarded prospects (don’t shoot the messenger!).

Regardless, these are all things to chew on this offseason. Yes, the majors will bring more drama and excitement with all of its hot stove moves, but there are some important storylines to follow regarding Atlanta Braves’ prospects as well.

*ALSO: Be on the lookout later this offseason, as I plan to release my own Atlanta Braves prospect rankings.