2019 Atlanta Braves: expectations vs. reality

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 06: Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates after scoring a run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the ninth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Busch Stadium on October 06, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 06: Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates after scoring a run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the ninth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Busch Stadium on October 06, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 04: Brian McCann #16 of the Atlanta Braves bats in the seventh inning in game two of the National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals at SunTrust Park on October 04, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 04: Brian McCann #16 of the Atlanta Braves bats in the seventh inning in game two of the National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals at SunTrust Park on October 04, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Hitter Questions

H1: Freeman, Donaldson, Acuna… which hitter will have the higher OPS (On-base% + Slugging%)? [Hitter must qualify for batting title]

  • ACUNA:  54.7%
  • FREEMAN:  39.6%
  • DONALDSON:  5.6%

This contest had a healthy race down to the wire.  Despite a poor September, Freddie Freeman still edged out the others with a .938.  Donaldson was second at .900, and Acuna faded to .883.

Ozzie Albies was close too:  .852.

H2: Dansby Swanson and Johan Camargo: who gets more plate appearance in 2019?

  • SWANSON:  56.9%
  • CAMARGO:  43.1%

You may have forgotten the reason behind this question, which was how we felt about Dansby Swanson’s chances of having a bounce-back year in 2019.

That question was answered early… and Camargo’s struggles made this entire question academic just as quickly:  Swanson came to the dish 545 times; Camargo just 248.

H3: In 2018, the Braves tied St. Louis for 5th in regular season runs scored with 759. In 2019, the team will score…

  • 770 RUNS OR MORE:  65.8%
  • 769 RUNS OR FEWER:  34.2%

Right again!  In 2019, the Braves plated a whopping 855 runs; the most since 2003 (907 that year!).

H4: Ronald Acuña Jr. will be an All-Star in 2019.

  • TRUE:  96.9%
  • FALSE:  3.1%

Wow.  This wasn’t much of a contest… and yes:  he made the All-Star squad… though he was 0 for 2 with 2 strikeouts.

H5: As a team, the Atlanta Braves hitters will strike out less AND walk more than in 2018 (regular season only). [20.6% K rate; 8.2% walk rate]

  • TRUE:  55.5%
  • FALSE:  44.5%

Here’s the numbers:

  • 2019 WALKS:  9.8% rate (BETTER)
  • 2019 STRIKEOUTS:  23.3% (WORSE)

So the minority of readers were correct this time as strikeouts were up by 2.7%.

Walks were indeed also up by a healthy amount, but you can probably lay most of the blame for this strikeout increase on Austin Riley and Tyler Flowers, though Donaldson contributed a bit as well.