Looking back at the Atlanta Braves worst postseason loss

Spotlight the highlights

The bright spots in the lineup came from players I expected to be the spark; unfortunately, that spark didn’t have the heat to ignite the wet timber behind it.  After an early mental lapse, Acuna confirmed his stardom and batted .444/.565/.889/.1.454, with a homer, a triple and three doubles, driving in two and walking four times.

Swanson batted .389/.421/.556/.977, good for the second-best batting line on the Braves. He came up big in high leverage situations just as he did in 2018 until injury forced him onto the DL.

In six PA, Swanson delivered two hits, a walk, and drove in three runs. He also scored three runs, as did his double-play partner. Albies continued to establish himself at one of baseball’s top second basemen. While his line isn’t gaudy, his eight PA with RISP resulted in three runs.

Adam Duvall led the team in RBI with five, all in high leverage situations. Duval got just one start due to his known weakness against right-handed pitching. That start looked like a hail Mary by manager Brian Snitker who, when asked about it at the press conference, ended his comment with “we’ll see.”

Donaldson didn’t get much to hit once the Cardinals figured out they didn’t have to pitch carefully to Freeman, and Markakis wasn’t a threat.

Bad rotation choice #1

Alan wrote that manager Brian Snitker had a plan and should be applauded for that.  Planning is only as good as the assumptions made when building it, and the Braves pitching plan had flaws from the start.

The Braves started Mike Soroka once.  I understand the sabermetric rationale for doing it and explained to some who asked, but starting anyone but your best pitcher twice in a must-win series is a bad idea unless there’s a better reason than ‘another pitcher makes more money’.

Brian Snitker said that Dallas Keuchel got two starts because “that’s why we got him.”

No, it’s not. The Braves acquired him to stabilize the rotation and provide veteran leadership in the postseason. Keuchel isn’t a number one starter; once Mike Foltynewicz came back, Keuchel became number three.

If you have an NL Cy Young candidate on your team, and he’s fully rested, he starts games one and five. Nothing else makes sense. No Braves pitcher makes the money or has the team history of Kershaw, but he didn’t start game one or game five,

I know the Skipper said he would make the same decisions now, but he has to say that – at least for a while – anything else is a shot at the pitcher he did start.

To quote Mark DeRosa on MLB Central the day after game five, “If the St Louis mound is where Soroka pitches best, go get it and put it in SunTrust Park.”  Pitching your third-best starter twice can’t happen if you intend to win.

Bad rotation choice #2

Starting Dallas Keuchel on short rest looked like an awful idea from the time it became clear it would happen. On full rest in game one Keuchel didn’t fool anyone, why would he be better on short rest in game four?

Using a starting pitcher on short rest at the end of a 162 game season with 30+ starts, 200 or so innings, and the accumulated aches and pains that accompany such a season is at the very best a coin flip.  Since 1995, teams are 70 and 82 when their starter pitches on three days rest or less. Since 2001 in elimination games, teams who start pitchers on show rest are 12 –19.

The Atlanta Braves structured the NLDS pitching without a way to avoid a short rest start. Instead of having Julio Teheran, Bryse Wilson, or Kyle Wright on the roster, they took Josh Tomlin as long man, then didn’t use him in that role.

A better idea might have gone like this: start a pitcher the Cardinals hadn’t seen in game four, even if he became an opener. Starting Teheran for three, then going to Sean Newcomb for two, Max Fried for two, then go to the short relievers to finish it up would at least have kept the Cardinals adjusting.

Bad rotation choice #3 and #4

Mike Foltynewicz pitched an absolute gem in game two and wasn’t the reason game five went south; mental mistakes and luck change the complexion of the game quickly.

The Cardinals expected a close game, and Kolten Wong bunted to give them a chance at one run. Then Paul Goldschmidt got an infield single (thanks to a diving save from, Swanson) and Foltynewicz struck out Marcel Ozuna, except McCann didn’t hold the ball.

If he holds the ball, there are two outs, and the ground ball to Freddie ends the inning because Ozuna isn’t standing in front of him, blocking his view. The bottom fell out after that, and maybe Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander pitches out of it, but we’ve seen innings explode like that in the past.

Atlanta Braves

In 1991 Steve Avery gave up four runs on five hits after facing the first six batters.  Foltynewicz gave up four runs on three hits, an error, and a walk after facing seven batters.

Games can go bad in a hurry, and in postseason play, a manager can’t wait when that happens, particularly in a win or go home game. Snitker left Foltynewicz out there too long, but I doubt anyone else would have moved faster.

The Atlanta Braves took Josh Tomlin as a long man and planned to start Max Fried in game four and use him as a one-inning reliever if necessary in game one. Once he appeared in relief in game two, that ship had sailed, and they needed a fall back plan, but they didn’t have one.

Getting caught short of a starter without an option is bad planning. Recalling a starter after injury, then using him in late-inning relief, is just wrong.

I didn’t want Julio to start, but given a choice between a pitcher who had a rough first start pitching again on short rest and a starter followed by a bullpen game, give me the rested starter. We got the bullpen game anyway, how much worse could Julio have been?

Bullpen by dartboard

I understand using a high leverage reliever early if you believe the game is on the line at that point. The game wasn’t on the line when Snitker brought Shane Greene in for sixth inning of game one. The Braves carried Tomlin for precisely that kind of relief appearance but didn’t use him.

Chris Martin’s eighth inning departure due to injury saw the Braves call on Luke Jackson. Jackson did good work for a few weeks before the All-Star break, but using him in an inning with the potential for increased leverage was the wrong call.  That’s the perfect spot for Greene, but they burned him earlier.

Jackson immediately gave up a homer to Paul Goldschmidt, then got two quick outs, loaded the bases, and Snitker called on Mark Melancon for a four-out save, a doomed scenario from the start. The situation called for a strikeout pitcher, Melancon is not that pitcher.

A contact pitcher against Matt Carpenter, a batter who in his career is one of the best hitters in the NL in those situations, is a mistake.

Carpenter had an injury that led to an unproductive 2019 at the plate, but in his career batted .400/.503/.903/1.403 with a .210 ISO in high leverage situations.  It ended badly, so did the ninth and the series.

All of that aside, the Braves would be playing in the NLCS had the middle of the order bats delivered.

Where have all the power bats gone, long time waiting

The Atlanta Braves lineup’s been incredibly streaky and late-inning centric all season. On the season, the Braves were #19 in baseball and eighth in the NL with RISP based on wRC+ in the first six innings; the monthly numbers show the rollercoaster ride.

There’s always discussion about whether a team’s lack of offense before the postseason is a problem. It always felt like a problem this September, and the lineup’s performance it the series looked a lot like the last two weeks of the season as our big guns misfired.

Throughout the series, Freeman said his elbow didn’t interfere with his at-bats. If you believe that I have some oceanfront property in Death Valley I’m sure you’ll buy.

The Atlanta Braves set out to increase depth this season, but when it was needed the most, they had none. The team had no true first baseman in the system capable of playing every day and not looking someone playing a position he knew only by acquaintance.

When Ender Inciarte went down, the Braves chose not to replace him with a major league caliber outfielder, opting instead for Rafael Ortega, who ran into a grand slam homer by accident but batted .205/.271/.305, good for a –0.4 rWAR.

What to do in November when you’ve flopped

The nucleus of the team remains sound, and the future should sparkle, but waiting until next year is no longer acceptable because this was next year.

The Atlanta Braves will bring back Tyler Flowers, his magic glove, and missing bat because teams don’t dump both catchers and hope they can find two. Flowers is, at this point, a backup catcher and not a great one at that. They’ll probably bring back Teheran and Markakis as well while hopefully finding better players to turn them into trade material.

The bullpen continues to need help. Pitch-to-contact closers are scary, so I hope Greene gets the job he was hired to do, and we add some support for him not named Jackson, Blevins, or Tomlin.

A corner outfielder is needed as well until Cristian Pache or Drew Waters are ready.  Austin Riley needs to play winter ball to find his hitting stroke, or he’ll spend another year in AAA.

Most agree the Braves should try to sign Donaldson again. It will take an extra year to keep him away from other teams, and that shouldn’t be a problem as third basemen age well.

That’s a wrap

I waited a week to write this because I didn’t want emotions to get in the way or reality. In spite of all the things they didn’t do, the Atlanta Braves were six outs away from playing the Nationals in the NLCS. They got that close because other teams didn’t plan well either, and the Braves had Acuna, Albies, Soroka, and Swanson, among others.

This postseason highlighted the return of the starting pitcher as an essential force needed to win it all. The Nationals dismantled the Dodgers and destroyed the Cardinals behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez.

The Astros added Zack Greinke to Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.

The Braves have Soroka, Foltynewicz, and Fried with perhaps one of  Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson to follow, but an established veteran not named Keuchel would look really good in that mix.

All we can do is wait and hope we see steps taken to improve weak areas and add depth with a résumé, including successful Major League experience.