Atlanta Braves 2019 Report Card: Offensive and individual player grades

Now that the Atlanta Braves 2019 season is over, let’s grade the team’s offense this past year, both collectively and individually.

You could call the Atlanta Braves Game 5 loss many different things: a disaster, an epic collapse, an absolute nightmare. But those are not terms I would use to describe the Atlanta Braves 2019 season, as a whole.

Sure, you could easily (and intelligently) argue that a team’s season is meaningless if it doesn’t end with a championship; that a great regular season is nothing compared to a deep run in the postseason.

Technically, you would be 100% correct. Getting the boot in the very first playoff series is not all that great and being eliminated in the NLDS is not what we Braves’ fans should expect or frankly be proud of.

We want more… and that’s the way it should be. But the truth is, it didn’t happen for the Atlanta Braves; just like it didn’t happen for 29 other teams when it’s all said and done at the end of this month.

Eventually, there will only be one fanbase that will truly be happy this year… in the end there really is only ever one.

Sure, you could argue that just a deeper run in the Playoffs would’ve been sufficient for us Braves fans; if the team could’ve just made it to the NLCS then we’d be proud and this year would be an improvement.

Yeah right… that’s not how this works.

First it’s the League Championship Series, then it’s why not the World Series?

There were expectations and predictions that the 2019 Braves would go far this time and be more than just a playoff qualifier. There were also the same type of predictions that didn’t even expect the team to finish in the top 3 of the NL East (remember when the Mets and Phillies were the next best thing?).

In the end, the Atlanta Braves finished “in between” in 2019. No, they didn’t play deep into the postseason, but they dang sure did win the National League East… with room to spare as a matter of fact.

Sure, that Game 5 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals is going to sting for awhile. I’m still not over it… not even close, but the 2019 Atlanta Braves were a great team; in some areas, one of the best in the majors.

And believe me, I would much rather write up this grading series in November… not the second week of October!

But my rant is over. It’s time to put a bow on it and wrap things up here for the 2019 season.

Over the next several days we here at Tomahawk Take are going to spend some time recapping and reviewing the 2019 season — a final tribute to a year that was both spectacular and disappointing.

This piece will be the first of a two-part mini series, giving out grades for the Braves offense and pitching, from 2019. Today’s focus will be on the hitting and offensive side of the club, while piece No. 2 will focus on the Braves’ pitching.

First, we’ll look at the team’s offense as a whole…

Team offense

Grade: B+

The 2019 version of the Atlanta Braves offense was a lot like the 2018 group, except this year’s hitters enjoyed a bit more success, thanks to the new rabid ball that was used and some even better results against certain pitches.

The top-half of the Braves’ lineup — which we’ve written extensively about lately — provided a lot more pop this season, as well as late-innings heroics.

While the Braves did fairly well in the latter portion of games in 2018, the 2019 lineup seemingly fed off of the pressure. No matter the deficit, it seemed as if this year’s offense could always find a way to win.

The fundamentals

Overall, looking at several your more standard statistics, the 2019 Braves were a top-10 group in the majors and one of the best in the Senior Circuit:

When the 2019 regular season was all over, the Braves slugged 74 more home runs than they did in 2018 and 14 more than in 2003 — the season of the old franchise home run record (235).

It wasn’t just home runs, either. The 2019 season was a big year for runs in general, as well as RBI. The Braves scored the 10th-most runs in franchise history (855) and knocked in the 5th-most runs (824) — 96 more runs and 107 more RBI than in 2018.

Contrary to their performance in this year’s NLDS, the Braves rostered a lineup that could produce consistently.

Batted-balls and ‘clutchness’

The biggest difference between the 2019 Braves and 2018’s squad was how hard this year’s team hit the ball on a nightly basis:

• 2018 hard-hit rate: 36.4% (12th in MLB)
• 2019 hard-hit rate: 41.4% (2nd in MLB)

Of note:  that’s not about the juiced baseball, for every team used the same balls.  These are hard-hit rates as compared to other teams.

And not only did the 2019 Braves hit the ball hard, but the lineup feasted on fastballs, tripling their runs-above-average rating from last season against the heater:

• 2018 vs. fastball: 27.6 (12th in MLB)
• 2019 vs. fastball: 71.3 (7th in MLB)

Other Braves’ batted-ball ranks 

Now you might not put much faith in FanGraphs‘ ability to measure clutchness with their ‘Clutch’ stat.  I, myself, don’t know exactly what goes into the metric.

But WPA (win-probability-added) tells enough of the story. That’s basic math. And the 2019 Braves were one of the best when it came to causing positive swings to its win expectancy — the basic principle of how WPA is compiled.

Most of the Braves’ batted-ball results from 2019 fall in line with their 2018 tendencies — the lineup was mostly pull-heavy, but hit a lot of hard line-drives.

Plate discipline

The 2019 Braves corrected some of the chase issues the team had from 2018. This year’s lineup swung less at pitches out of the zone, which had a lot to do with the team’s increase in walk-rate from 2018 (8.2 BB% to 9.8 BB% in 2019).

Last season, the Braves finished the year with the 5th-highest O-Swing% (out-of-zone swing rate) in the majors (32.4%).  In 2019, the team improved… even if it was just a tad:

2019 Braves’ plate discipline ranks 

STAT

VALUE

MLB RANK

O-swing% (swings at balls out of the strike zone)

31.3%

t-15th highest

Z-swing% (swings at balls in the strike zone)

71.2%

3rd

Overall Swing%

47.8%

t-10th

O-contact% (contact outside the strike zone)

64.2%

t-7th

Z-contact% (contact in the strike zone)

82.4%

lowest in MLB

Overall contact% 75.4% 15th

Swinging strike%

11.8% t-5th highest

Unfortunately, the team took a dip in terms of contact against pitches in the zone (or strikes). Last season, the Braves made contact with swings at pitches in the zone at an 85.3% clip (3% more than in 2019).

The fact that the Braves ranked third when it came to swinging at pitches in the zone, but was the worst in the majors at actually hitting them, explains a lot of the swing-and-miss and spoiled opportunities at the plate.

Also, you’d like to see the lineup do a bit better with its overall contact, as 15th in the majors isn’t an ideal standing amongst the league.

Why the B+ grade? For reasons I just illustrated: this team was no doubt one of the elite groups on offense — the numbers show that.

But, as you can see by the last group of stats, the Braves’ plate discipline in 2019 was an evident weakness.  And this is purely anecdotal, but to me it appeared to have played a part in some of the lineup’s issues in the NLDS.

I would grade 2018’s offense as a B, and I think the 2019 lineup was certainly better, hence the B+.

Let’s look at the individual players…

Infield offense

OVERALL GRADE: A

The 2019 Atlanta Braves had one of the top infield offenses, led by the usual suspects:  Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies, but also a late-blooming Josh Donaldson.

Dansby Swanson was also no slouch, as he made solid strides in 2019 — perhaps the best season of his career.

Even the catching rotation of Brian McCann and Tyler Flowers produced, with Francisco Cervelli adding some veteran presence in the latter portion of the season.

2019 BRAVES INFIELD MLB RANKS

STAT

VALUE

RANK

Hits

828

8th

Home runs

148

7th

Batting average

.266

8th

On-base%

.349

t-2nd

Slugging%

.476

5th

OPS

.825

3rd

Line-drive%

23.7%

1st

Hard-hit%

42.8%

2nd

Let’s break down each player by position…

C / Brian McCann:  GRADE: B

89 games, .249/.323/.412, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 89 wRC+, 1.1 WAR

The 35-year-old McCann quickly called it quits following the Braves’ Game 5 loss on Wednesday — retiring after 15 seasons (seven-time All-Star) — but he posted a very respectable 2019 season for the Braves.

He did everything he was asked to do: split catching duties with Tyler Flowers (85 games), play solid defense behind the plate (8.3 Def) and pop a homer every now and then (12 HR).

McCann’s .249 batting average in 2019 was his best mark since the 2013 season (his first round with the Braves). I see no reason to not grade him highly.

C / Tyler Flowers:  GRADE: B-

85 games, .222/.319/.413, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 88 wRC+, 2.1 WAR

Flowers’ inability to hit left-handed pitching really put a damper on his overall batting line (.262 AVG vs. RHP / .155 AVG vs. LHP); but even so, Flowers has made his living by becoming the king of catcher framing, which he excelled at once again in 2019, posting 19.0 Def WAR (the third-best mark of his career).

As he’s done in 5 of his last 6 seasons, Flowers totaled at least 2 WAR in 2019, thanks mostly to his elite skills behind the plate. Sure, it would be nice if he could do a little more with the bat, but given his position… Flowers turned in another above average campaign.

1B / Freddie Freeman:  GRADE: A

158 games, .295/.389/.549, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 138 wRC+, 4.0 WAR

Freddie posted his most powerful season, slugging 38 home runs (four more than his previous high in 2016) and once again provided the Atlanta Braves with unwavering consistency.

The only reason he doesn’t get an A+ in 2019 is because, well, this technically wasn’t even his best year (6.1 WAR in 2016), plus his September/October decline (compared to his usual numbers) warrants some deductions.  This was likely attributable to his elbow spurs, but it’s still part of his season.

• March 28 – August 31: .299 AVG, 144 wRC
• September: .264 AVG, 95 wRC+

2B / Ozzie Albies:  GRADE: A+

160 games, .295/.352/.500, 24 HR, 86 RBI, 15 SB, 117 wRC+, 4.6 WAR

It was a career-year for Ozzie in 2019, as he posted the best season of his 3-year tenure with the Atlanta Braves.

Ozzie did it all in 2019, playing outstanding defense (4.6 Def) at second base and providing consistent at-bats as the No. 2 hitter behind Ronald Acuna Jr..

Ozzie also cut down on some bad habits at the plate and raised his walk-rate from 5.3% in 2018 to 7.7% this year. Finishing third on the team in WAR, Ozzie gets an A+.

SS / Dansby Swanson:  GRADE: B+

127 games, .251/.325/.422, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 10 SB, 92 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

2019 was Dansby’s power breakout season, as he slugged more homers and knocked in more runs than any other season of his career.

However, Dansby’s defense took a bit of a dive this year, preventing him from posting his best WAR-season yet.

• 2018 Def: 11.3
• 2019 Def: -0.8

Dansby’s huge improvements this season when it came to hitting breaking balls, coupled with his ability to mostly lay off the low-and-away slider are duly noted, but I still think he has a little more in him.

3B, Josh Donaldson:  GRADE: A+

155 games, .259/.379/.521, 37 HR, 94 RBI, 132 wRC+, 4.9 WAR

The Braves No. 2 in WAR (behind Acuna Jr.), JD started the 2019 season slow, but ended up reverting back to his MVP days for the last 80% of the year.

At 33-years-old and coming off a few injuries, we didn’t even know if Donaldson would be able to last the entire season, let alone slug almost 40 home runs and play above average defense (4.5 Def). This is a player that GM Alex Anthopoulos needs to bring back.

The Bench

OVERALL GRADE: B-

The Atlanta Braves came into the 2019 season with a much improved bench compared to last season, mainly from one single signing — Josh Donaldson — which instantly caused a trickle-down effect, both deepening the Braves’ bench AND allowing for much better pinch-hitting matchups.

Of course, we had no idea that Johan Camargo would struggle the way he did this season, so the early expectations regarding the Braves’ bench was rightfully high. But by the end of the season, the Braves’ bench was exhausted and depleted, thanks to injuries to starters (Inciarte) and injuries to themselves (Camargo and Culberson).

Obviously, Austin Riley’s run as the Braves’ starting left fielder didn’t last all season, but his 60-ish games at the position is well above the likes of Adam Duvall and Rafael Ortega (so excuse my arbitrary line between starter and regular).

Then there’s Charlie Culberson, who played a lot of games in 2019, but played numerous positions (both in the outfield AND infield).

Here are my grades for the Braves’ bench players…

UTIL / Charlie Culberson:  GRADE: B

108 games, .259/.294/.437, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 85 wRC+, 0.3 WAR

Charlie is who he is, which is an above average hitter versus lefties (119 wRC+ vs. LHP / 64 wRC+ vs. RHP) and a solid defender at multiple positions.

But in 2019, Charlie struck out a bit more than usual (30.6 K%) and weirdly enough… struggled to hit at home:

• Road: 46 games, 311 AVG., 110 wRC+
• Home: 45 games, .197 AVG., 54 wRC+

Overall, Charlie is a classic utility player and any production above replacement-level is a win for the Braves. No, he wasn’t as good as he was last season, but he was still important to the Braves in 2019.

INF / Johan Camargo:  GRADE: D

98 games, .233/.279/.384, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 67 wRC+, -0.5 WAR

Did I mention I don’t particularly like grading players?

Camargo had the biggest drop off this season, coming after an excellent 3.3-WAR year 2018, where he hit 19 home runs, batted .272 and played excellent defense at third base.

As I mentioned above, the expectations were high for him going into the 2019 season, but it just didn’t work out. Other than about a 4% drop in his hard-hit rate, Camargo’s underlying numbers look rather similar to his 2018 marks.

Some point to his inconsistent playing time this year and some say perhaps his 2018 season was a fluke:

• 2018 BABIP: .315
• 2019 BABIP: .258

We may never know. Hopefully 2020 is much better… wherever he might appear on the diamond.

OF /Adam Duvall:  GRADE: A

41 games, .267/.315/.567, 10 HR, 19 RBI, 121 wRC+, 0.7 WAR

No, his A grade isn’t just because he won the Braves two games with his bat in the NLDS this postseason. Duvall was a great player for the Atlanta Braves, once called up in late July.  He also deserves extra credit for re-working himself at AAA and embracing the assignment.

He set the bar pretty low with his 2018 performance, but Duvall posted the highest wRC+ of his six-year career in 2019, also providing the Braves with timely hits and well-played defense in the outfield.

OF / Billy Hamilton:  GRADE: B+

26 games, .268/.375/.317, 2 doubles, 4 SB

I’ll admit, I didn’t quite understand the claiming of Hamilton in mid-August. Sure, he’s fast and plays great defense, but he’s a very poor hitter.

Well, in the 26 games he spent with the Braves, Hamilton hit 26 points above his career batting average, got on base at a 37% clip (100 points higher over his Kansas City games and far above his career .297 pace) and even knocked in 3 runs — a fifth of all of his RBI in 119 games, in 2019.

Sure, these are very small samples and really not that imperative to the success of the 2019 Atlanta Braves, but Hamilton deserves credit for playing a lot better while with the team.

OF / Rafael Ortega:  GRADE: C+

34 games, .205/.271/.307, 2 HR (1 GRAND SLAM), 51 wRC+, -0.1 WAR

If this was Ortega’s grade for his performance with Gwinnett, than it would no doubt be an A+. But while he was with the Atlanta Braves, Ortega struggled (though he did find success in small spurts).

Ortega’s pull-happy tendencies from Triple-A (60.2% pull-rate!) didn’t work so well in the majors, as he wound up becoming just an extra body on the bench, though he still deserves credit for hitting one of the best home runs of the season:

SS / Adeiny Hechavarria:  GRADE: A

24 games, .328/.400/.639, 4 HR, 5 doubles, 1.1 bWAR

Yes that’s 1.1 WAR (Baseball Reference) in 24 games with the Atlanta Braves…or 70 plate appearances. (Fangraphs doesn’t break down players’ WAR from team-to-team.)

Hechavarría was awesome right out of the gate, flashing the leather and swinging the bat better than he ever has. Like Hamilton above, Hechavarría’s batting average with the Atlanta Braves was way higher than in his career (career .253 AVG), as well as his on-base percentage (career .290 OBP).

Of course… small samples, but these are time-with-the-Braves grades.

C / Francisco Cervelli:  GRADE: B+

14 games, .281/.378/.688, 2 HR, 5 doubles

What else could you ask from a guy with just 14 games worth of playing time?

Cervelli provided some leadership for the Braves’ pitchers, while also swinging a solid bat, considering the guy was hitting .193 with the Pirates, before joining the Atlanta Braves.

Of course… small samples.

*All stats and WAR totals are from FanGraphs, unless noted otherwise.

Those are my grades… what are yours? Let us know in the comments below.